Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
842 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 823 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Added another row of TX/LA Co/Pa to our SVR watch #290.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 823 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Usually this far into an SPC Watch we are able to remove some real
estate, but so far we just keep adding as the high res models
continue to catch up with trends. FWD/HGX warnings knocking on
our door with decent instability across our area at 3000-3500J/kg.
El Nino advisory is still in effect with repeat storms adding
flooding issues to our area. No other changes to the overnight
forecast except to say some maybe severe this evening, verses
early this evening. Stay safe and heed warnings this evening with
some large hail and gusty winds, and isolated tornadic activity
all possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

As of this writing, Friday looks to begin with a discernible gap in
the precip grids, but this may be wise to take with a grain of salt,
as the ArkLaTex feels locked into something of a "rinse and repeat"
forecast cycle for at least a few more days while the pseudo-
stationary surface boundary draped along our north continues to work
with in tandem with upper level flow to steer one round of storms
after another into our region. This looks to be the case once again
by Friday evening, with storm chances along and north of the I-20
corridor developing and continuing overnight before diminishing
Saturday morning, followed by some drying Saturday afternoon and a
similar performance overnight into Sunday, this time restrained
largely to the I-30 corridor and areas to the north. Details
regarding coverage and timing are, of course, subject to change.

The weekend will see persistent southerly flow reinforce the warming
trend experienced this week, with widespread highs in the low 90s
across the region and an increase in highs climbing into the middle
90s, in concert with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, these will
make for uncomfortable to oppressive humidity for portions of the
region before a regime change finally takes effect.

Said pattern shift looks to manifest during the day Monday, as the
upper level troughing associated with the surface boundary finally
gets nudged north and east by a building ridge out of the west. This
transitional pattern will allow for northwesterly flow to return
area lows to the 60s and highs to the 80s through at least the
middle of next week, followed by a fairly quick return to the 90s by
the end of this extended forecast period.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and at least a portion
of this evening, with cu cigs expected to persist across much of
the region through this time. However, convection will continue to
increase through the afternoon across portions of NE TX/SW AR,
possibly affecting the TXK terminal by mid-afternoon. This
convection should eventually build farther SE across E TX and into
N LA by/after 00Z Thursday, affecting the I-20 terminals between
00-03Z. MVFR cigs with gusty winds/reduced vsbys are likely
in/near the convection, although these storms should develop a
cold pool deep enough to delay the onset of low cloud development
through much of the overnight hours generally along/N of I-20.
However, low MVFR/IFR cigs will be possible at LFK especially if
convection does not affect this terminal late this
evening/overnight. Once diurnal heating commences shortly after
daybreak, should begin to see IFR/low MVFR cigs develop over the
area, which will slowly lift/eventually scatter out by the end of
the 18Z TAF period. S winds 8-13kts with occasional higher gusts
to 20kts, will become SSE and diminish below 10kts, except gusty
in/near convection. Winds should diminish to 5kts or less once the
convection diminishes late tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  90  73  93 /  70  20  30   0
MLU  70  90  71  93 /  60  20  20   0
DEQ  66  84  67  87 /  60  50  60  10
TXK  69  87  70  91 /  70  40  50  10
ELD  67  87  68  91 /  80  30  40  10
TYR  70  88  73  92 /  70  20  20   0
GGG  70  88  72  91 /  70  20  30   0
LFK  71  91  73  93 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
323 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-231200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
323 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will become widespread late this
afternoon, into the evening and overnight hours across much of the
Four State Region. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and
locally heavy downpours will be the primary threats with an isolated
tornado threat as well. The severe weather threat should end from
northwest to southeast across the Four State Region overnight
tonight. While widespread flooding is not likely through tonight,
flooding of low lying and flood prone areas will be possible with
heavy downpours through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Severe weather will be possible once again late Thursday into
Thursday Night, late Friday into Friday Night and again late in the
day on Saturday across mainly portions of Northeast Texas, Southeast
Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas. Large hail and damaging
thunderstorm wind gusts will again be the main threats Thursday,
Friday and Saturday.

A strong cold front will move through the region on Memorial Day and
Monday Night bringing with it another chance of thunderstorms. Before
the cold front arrives late on Monday, we will see some of the
hottest temperatures of the late Spring Season with afternoon high
temperatures both Saturday and Sunday in the lower to middle 90s.
Combine this with high afternoon humidity and heat indices could
approach 105 degrees across some locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be likely later this afternoon and into the
late evening and early overnight periods tonight with the development
of severe thunderstorms.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
738 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

LAZ001-010-TXZ151-230130-
De Soto LA-Caddo LA-Panola TX-
738 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN DE SOTO...
SOUTHWESTERN CADDO PARISHES IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND EAST
CENTRAL PANOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 738 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Deberry, or 11 miles northeast of Carthage, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Keachi, Midyett, Kickapoo, Front, and Spring Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northwestern Louisiana...and northeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3214 9422 3224 9426 3238 9396 3217 9383
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 247DEG 14KT 3222 9416

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

15

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
750 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     Hail             3 ESE Winnsboro         32.94N 95.24W
05/22/2024  E2.50 Inch       Wood               TX   Public

            Public photo via KLTV facebook of hail on
            County Road 4420 near the Winnsboro and
            Scroggins area.

&&

20

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
752 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

LAZ005-006-230130-
Lincoln LA-Union LA-
752 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN UNION AND CENTRAL
LINCOLN PARISHES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 752 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Grambling, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ruston, Dubach, Vienna, Downsville, D Arbonne, Corinth, Shiloh, Mount
Zion, and Unionville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central and northwestern Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3259 9239 3254 9277 3272 9283 3285 9248
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 254DEG 18KT 3266 9272

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

20

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