Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
705 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #224 has been issued through midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 549 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A second Severe Thunderstorm Watch #224  has been issued for deep
east TX and Toledo Bend Country for this evening until midnight.
Large hail and damaging winds with an isolated tornado now
possible south of I-20. This activity will continue toward the MS
River after midnight. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A brief break in active weather will come to an end as the next
workweek begins across the Four State Region. This is due to a
quasi-zonal synoptic pattern augmented by a series of slower
troughs and faster embedded shortwaves across northern Mexico and
the Southern Plains. The first of these disturbances will arrive
to instigate widespread convection as early as late Sunday into
early Monday, while the next disturbance in the parade will arrive
as early as Wednesday to keep precipitation chances going through
most of the rest of the week. Day 1-7 QPF values of widespread 3+
inch totals are expected with isolated higher amounts possible as
a result. Otherwise, temperature maximums/minimums in the 80s/60s
will gradually return above normal (maximums approaching 90 once
again) after the middle of next week. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 658 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Scattered strong to severe convection will remain possible across
much of the ArkLaTex through 10/05z. All TAF sites will be
affected, but the risk of thunderstorms should generally begin to
diminish from northwest to southeast beginning around 10/03z. A
few scattered showers will remain possible through the overnight
hours, but all rain chances should end before daybreak Friday
morning. Outside of convective effects, VFR flight conditions
should generally prevail with the exception of possibly a brief
period of MVFR ceilings at KLFK. However, VFR conditions with only
some high cirrus clouds are expected after 10/13z across the
region.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  84  62  82 /  50   0   0   0
MLU  66  83  59  82 /  70   0   0   0
DEQ  59  80  54  82 /  20   0   0   0
TXK  62  83  58  83 /  30   0   0   0
ELD  61  81  56  81 /  40   0   0   0
TYR  65  83  61  80 /  50   0   0   0
GGG  65  83  61  81 /  50   0   0   0
LFK  67  85  64  82 /  50   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
236 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-101945-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
236 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon
and evening near the slow moving front, with the severe weather
threat for damaging winds, hail and an embedded tornado or two over
the region later this evening into the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The end of the week into the start of the weekend will begin quietly
as high pressure dominates the local area. Showers and thunderstorms
will return by Sunday afternoon into most of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

16

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
718 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

LAZ010-011-017-018-100115-
De Soto LA-Natchitoches LA-Red River LA-Sabine LA-
718 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DE SOTO...CENTRAL
RED RIVER...WEST CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES AND NORTHWESTERN SABINE
PARISHES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 717 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Converse, or 12 miles south of Mansfield, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Converse, Pleasant Hill, Pelican, Evelyn, Grand Bayou, Rambin, and
Ajax.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3174 9380 3189 9389 3211 9347 3187 9333
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 244DEG 18KT 3186 9374

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
729 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

LAZ011-012-018-100130-
Bienville LA-Natchitoches LA-Red River LA-
729 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT RED RIVER...NORTHWESTERN
NATCHITOCHES AND SOUTH CENTRAL BIENVILLE PARISHES THROUGH 830 PM
CDT...

At 729 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Coushatta, or 21 miles east of Mansfield, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coushatta, Martin, Hall Summit, Saline, Lucky, Ashland, Castor,
Edgefield, Lake End, Hanna, Womack, Crichton, Chestnut, and
Armistead.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northwestern Louisiana. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until midnight CDT for northwestern Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3189 9334 3193 9336 3194 9335 3194 9337
      3196 9337 3197 9339 3211 9347 3234 9308
      3208 9291 3207 9291
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 242DEG 11KT 3203 9333

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

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