Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
621 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Parameters are starting to come together for strong to severe
storms this afternoon into the evening and overnight hours. So far
today we have been relatively quiet, as outflow boundaries from
convection west of the region may have stabilized our area.
However, we have started to see some popcorn convection develop
across the area with daytime heating. Just west of us, very strong
to severe storms have developed between Temple and Mexia Texas
along a remnant boundary. Short-term progs have these storms
holding together and moving northeastward into the western half of
the region over the next couple of hours. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued Tornado Watch 158 for all of our East Texas
counties along and south of Interstate 20 through 9 pm to account
for these storms. Can't rule out additional watches down stream as
convection pushes eastward into our Louisiana zones after 9 pm.
Again, all modes of severe will be in play, including flash
flooding.

The convection is expected to push through the area overnight and
should be out of our warning area near lunch time Monday just
ahead of a cool front. Can't rule out some additional convection
early Monday afternoon along that front, followed by quiet
conditions. Not expecting a huge change in temperatures behind the
front, but northerly winds should bring in a slightly cooler and
drier airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Quiet conditions will be short-lived as rain chances are expected
to return by Tuesday afternoon. Zonal flow will become established
over the region Tuesday, with several short-wave disturbances
expected to move through the flow. The upper flow will transition
to more southwesterly by mid-week, with rain chances continuing,
as disturbances continue to move across the flow over the region.
Eventually, another long-wave trough will shift out of the Rockies
into the Plains, eventually dragging another cold front into the
region on Friday. This front should clear the precip out of the
region for next weekend, but not before bringing us more
convection. Can't rule out additional severe weather during the
upcoming week of unsettled weather, along with excessive rainfall
and additional hydro issues on area waterways. Seasonal temps
look to return by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Severe thunderstorms currently ongoing across NE TX near and south
of the I-20 Corridor and will be moving into NW LA in the next
hour or so. This threat will continue shifting eastward through
the evening and overnight hours. Have convection exiting most of
our airspace in the 12-15z timeframe on Monday with IFR/VFR
ceilings eventually becoming low VFR or scattering out all
together.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  82  65  85 /  90  40  10  20
MLU  67  76  63  84 /  70  80  20  20
DEQ  60  81  58  83 /  90  10   0  10
TXK  65  82  62  84 / 100  20   0  10
ELD  63  78  60  85 /  90  70  10  10
TYR  64  83  64  84 /  90  10   0  20
GGG  65  83  63  84 /  90  10   0  20
LFK  66  85  65  85 /  90  30  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through Monday evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
238 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-291945-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-
238 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move into extreme Southeast
Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and adjacent sections of Southwest
Arkansas this morning, before eventually diminishing later this
morning. Locally gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall will be
possible with these storms this morning, but the remnants of these
storms will help focus additional shower and thunderstorm development
by mid and late afternoon during peak heating, especially with the
arrival of a strong upper level disturbance from the west. Some of
these storms will become severe, with damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes possible, with locally heavy rainfall likely
moving over the same areas. Thus, the potential for flash flooding
will increase late this afternoon over Northeast Texas, extreme
Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas, with the severe and flash
flood threats shifting east into Deep East Texas and North Louisiana
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms containing heavy rainfall will continue to
gradually spread east across North-Central and Northeast Louisiana
Monday morning, before diminishing by afternoon. The threat for flash
flooding will continue over these areas Monday morning, before
ending as the rains exit the area. While a respite in the rains is
expected Monday night and Tuesday morning, additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible across East Texas and North
Louisiana Tuesday afternoon, becoming more numerous Wednesday through
Friday as weak upper level disturbances traverse the area. The
potential for isolated strong storms can not be ruled out with the
storms Thursday and Friday, ahead of a weak cold front that will move
through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

TXZ136>138-149>153-165>167-291945-
Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-
Angelina-San Augustine-Sabine-
238 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 158 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Texas and Deep East
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move into extreme Southeast
Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and adjacent sections of Southwest
Arkansas this morning, before eventually diminishing later this
morning. Locally gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall will be
possible with these storms this morning, but the remnants of these
storms will help focus additional shower and thunderstorm development
by mid and late afternoon during peak heating, especially with the
arrival of a strong upper level disturbance from the west. Some of
these storms will become severe, with damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes possible, with locally heavy rainfall likely
moving over the same areas. Thus, the potential for flash flooding
will increase late this afternoon over Northeast Texas, extreme
Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas, with the severe and flash
flood threats shifting east into Deep East Texas and North Louisiana
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Showers and thunderstorms containing heavy rainfall will continue to
gradually spread east across North-Central and Northeast Louisiana
Monday morning, before diminishing by afternoon. The threat for flash
flooding will continue over these areas Monday morning, before
ending as the rains exit the area. While a respite in the rains is
expected Monday night and Tuesday morning, additional scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible across East Texas and North
Louisiana Tuesday afternoon, becoming more numerous Wednesday through
Friday as weak upper level disturbances traverse the area. The
potential for isolated strong storms can not be ruled out with the
storms Thursday and Friday, ahead of a weak cold front that will move
through the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

20

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