River Flood Warning 1, NWS San Diego, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
929 AM PST Mon Jan 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move inland through southern
California and northern Baja today. Precipitation will become more
widespread and heavier this morning and continue into this
afternoon with a slight chance of thunderstorms for this morning
into this evening. Showers will decrease late tonight and end from
north to south on Tuesday. Continued cool through Thursday, then
warmer and dry for Friday through Sunday as high pressure aloft
strengthens along the West Coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

9 AM Update: Widespread moderate rainfall with pockets of heavy
rainfall continue across much of Southern California this morning.
A few thunderstorms have been observed via satellite and lightning
data this morning, so the chances for thunderstorms will increase
accordingly through the daytime. Cameras from Big Bear Lake show
moderate to heavy snow and reduced visibility. Other observations
at similar elevations are near or just below freezing, and may
have trouble rising back above freezing with heavy snow ongoing.
Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory through 10 PM tonight for
elevations above 6,500 feet in the San Bernardino/Riverside County
Mountains to cover this potential. No other changes were made this
morning.

From Previous Discussion:

.SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
More widespread and heavier rainfall will overspread southwestern
California this morning and continue into this afternoon with
showers continuing into this evening. There is also a slight
chance of thunderstorms for this morning into this evening.
Showers will continue into tonight, then decrease from north to
south on Tuesday with showers mainly over the mountains on
Tuesday. The snow level will rise to 7500 to 8000 feet by early
afternoon, then fall to around 6500 feet for late tonight.

Rainfall is expected to range from around one inch near the coast
to 2 inches in the mountains with around one-half inch in the
deserts. There is around a 85 to 90 percent chance for 2 inches or
more of rainfall in portion of the mountains and around a 60
percent chance for 3 inches or more of rainfall in the wettest
locations. Snowfall of 6 to 12 inches is possible in the
mountains, mostly above 7500 to 8000 feet.

The stronger winds today will be for coastal areas with gusty
south to southeast winds with isolated gusts to 40 mph. Today will
be cooler with the greatest cooling, of 5 to 10 degrees, for the
lower deserts. Tuesday and Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer,
but still cool.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Sunday)...
A low pressure system moving southeastward through the Great Basin
for Wednesday night and Thursday will maintain cooler conditions
with small chances for light precipitation. High pressure aloft
along the West Coast for Friday through Sunday will bring warming with
high temperatures for Sunday 5 to 10 degrees above average, mostly
in the 70s for the coast and valleys. A more-prolonged wet
pattern could arrive in early February.

&&

.AVIATION...
221730Z...Coast/Valleys...Multiple cloud layers BKN-OVC 800-2200 ft
MSL and BKN-OVC 5000-10000 ft MSL with widespread terrain
obscurations.  Clouds/vis locally 400-1200 ft MSL and 1-5SM, locally
lower. Conditions slowly improving to SCT SHRA after 21Z and
gradually diminish from northwest to southeast into Tuesday. Cloud
bases will remain mostly 1000-2000 ft MSL.

Mountains/Deserts...Widespread terrain obscurations will continue
today. RA with SN above about 6000 ft MSL reverting to SHRA/SHSN
into the afternoon and gradually diminish from northwest to
southeast tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty southerly winds will develop this morning then shift and
weaken this afternoon. Stronger northwest winds develop this
evening, continue into Tuesday afternoon, and generate choppy, steep
and hazardous seas. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain is
expected to decrease in the afternoon. There is a chance of
thunderstorms through this evening, with gusty, erratic winds likely
near any thunderstorms. Check the Small Craft Advisory for details.
No additional hazardous marine weather is expected late Tuesday
through Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
There is a 10-20% chance of lightning through this evening, with
highest chances in the afternoon.

Surf will continue elevated through Wednesday, mostly 3-6 feet.
Localized coastal flooding is possible during morning high tides at
low lying beaches, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch until 9 PM PST this evening for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange
     County Inland Areas-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire-San Diego County Coastal
     Areas-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-
     San Diego County Valleys-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-
     Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
     Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters
     from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm-
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending
     30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

&&

PUBLIC...Adams
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Small

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