Gale Warning 1, NWS San Diego, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
940 PM PST Fri Jan 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tonight will be clear and cold with valley frost. A cold front will
bring strong winds and a chance for showers Saturday night into
Sunday with snow showers in the mountains. Dry and cold Sunday night
and Monday with the winds turning offshore from the north. The cold
weather will persist all of next week with below average
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Clear and cold again tonight with frost in the valleys. A Frost
Advisory is in effect for the Inland Empire through early Saturday
morning.

Gusty north to northeast winds from 30-40 mph surfaced in the San
Bernardino Mountains, the Santa Ana Mountains, and through the
Morongo Valley pass into the northern Coachella Valley this evening.
These blustery winds will continue overnight and then decrease
toward daybreak.

Saturday will be one of the warmest day we will see in a while
because a cold front will move across SoCal Saturday night and
Sunday and drag a much colder airmass into the region. This airmass
will remain in place through next week as the jet stream becomes
north-south oriented and plunges dry, cold air from the northern
latitudes into the Southwest.

The inside track of this weekend shortwave will limit the
precipitation potential with generally light amounts in most areas.
Its trajectory favors San Diego County as having the best chance for
the highest precipitation totals, ranging from 0.10" to 0.33 inches
in the mountains and foothills. The snow level will fall quickly
early Sunday morning below 5000 feet with an inch or two of snowfall
in some of mountain areas by Sunday morning. This has prompted a
Winter Weather Advisory for the San Bernardino, Riverside and San
Diego County mountains above 4000 feet.

This system will generate strong winds Saturday night and Sunday,
strongest over the mountains and the desert slopes/foothills. A High
Wind Watch is in effect for those areas. Farther west, Gale Force
winds are forecast over the coastal waters. Some of these strong
overwater winds will affect the immediate coast with gusts of 40 MPH
early Sunday morning. A Wind Advisory is in effect for those areas
as well. A Wind Advisory also covers the high desert areas, where
strong SW-W winds will turn northerly Sunday night.

The trough exits the area Monday followed by cool days and cold
nights through Wednesday. Late next week another cold trough dives
south over the West for possible precipitation. This pattern is
likely to take us through mid January with more periods of light
precipiation and below average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
060530Z...All Areas...Mostly clear skies will continue through Sat
with high clouds increasing late Sat/Sat evening above 20000 ft MSL
and low clouds increasing near the coast Sat evening with bases 1500-
2500 ft MSL. Vis will mostly be unrestricted.

Through 15Z Sat, local N-NE winds gusting 25-40 kts will occur over
the mountains and locally into portions of the Inland Empire and
Coachella Valley, along with moderate up/downdrafts. Local LLWS will
also occur when adjacent surface winds are light, including VCNTY
KSNA.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds 20-30 knots with gusts to 40 kts will develop
Saturday night and continue through Sunday evening. While strongest
winds will occur in the outer coastal waters near San Clemente
Island, some gale force winds will also occur in the inner coastal
waters. Combined seas of 10-13 ft will occur during the same time
period from a combination of wind waves, a short-period (8 second
swell from 300 degrees) and a long-period (17-18 second) swell from
290 degrees. The winds will weaken and turn offshore Monday, with
strengthening onshore winds again for the middle of next week. See
the Marine Weather Message for details.

&&

.BEACHES...
Increasing west swells from 290-300 degrees this weekend will
created elevated surf. The long Swells and surf will build-period
swell (5 feet/17-18 sec/290 deg) will build Saturday and continue
Sunday, while a short-period swell (10-11 feet/8 seconds/300 deg)
will build Saturday night and Sunday. All swells will subside Sunday
night and Monday morning. Highest surf will likely be on exposed
west-facing beaches in southern San Diego County where sets of 8-10
feet are expected. See the Coastal Hazard Message for details.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM PST Monday for San
     Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Wind Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM PST Sunday for Apple
     and Lucerne Valleys-Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange
     County Inland Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM PST Saturday for San Bernardino
     and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire.

     High Wind Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
     Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino
     County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County
     Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Saturday night to noon PST
     Sunday for Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County
     Mountains-San Diego County Mountains.

     Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through late
     Sunday night for Orange County Coastal Areas.

PZ...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for
     Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     and out to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican
     Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente
     Island.

&&

PUBLIC...Moede
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Maxwell