Tornado Warning 41, NWS Springfield, MO

863 
WWUS53 KSGF 070748
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
248 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MOC161-169-070757-
/O.CAN.KSGF.TO.W.0041.000000T0000Z-240507T0800Z/
Pulaski MO-Phelps MO-
248 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PULASKI AND NORTHWESTERN
PHELPS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for central and
east central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 9165 3804 9190 3803 9193 3804 9195
      3801 9197 3807 9208 3829 9202 3829 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0747Z 212DEG 51KT 3819 9191 

$$

MOC125-070800-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0041.000000T0000Z-240507T0800Z/
Maries MO-
248 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL
MARIES COUNTY...

At 247 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Vienna, or 18 miles northwest of Rolla, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Belle and Vienna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 9165 3804 9190 3803 9193 3804 9195
      3801 9197 3807 9208 3829 9202 3829 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0747Z 212DEG 51KT 3819 9191 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Soria

912 
WWUS53 KSGF 070758
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
258 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MOC125-070808-
/O.EXP.KSGF.TO.W.0041.000000T0000Z-240507T0800Z/
Maries MO-
258 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL MARIES COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 300
AM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However, gusty winds are still possible with
this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for central and
east central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 9165 3804 9190 3803 9193 3804 9195
      3801 9197 3807 9208 3829 9202 3829 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0758Z 212DEG 51KT 3830 9182 

$$

Soria

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
725 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are likely tonight with the highest risk
  areas along and west of Highway 65. Primary hazard is damaging
  wind gusts of 70 to 80 mph. Additional hazards include
  frequent lightning, a few short- lived tornadoes and half
  dollar sized hail. Severe storms will move into the area after
  9pm and continue overnight.

- Localized flooding is also a concern tonight across southeast
  Kansas and western Missouri where localized pockets of 1-2
  inches of rain will occur.

- Additional strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. Exact
  hazards remains in question, but very large hail, damaging,
  and a conditional tornado threat are all in play. SPC has a hatched
  Enhanced Risk (3/5) for most of the area.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 725 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Storms have developed across a front across central Kansas and
Oklahoma this evening. This activity will continue to move east
this evening into tonight as an upper level trough moves east
into the plains. The high res models continue to be in good
agreement that these storms developing into a line and move
into the far western portions of the area by 11pm then moving
east across the area through the overnight hours exiting the
area to the east by early Tuesday. Damaging winds of 60 to 80
mph winds remain the main threat with these line of storms
especially along and east of Highway 65. Low level shear will
also support a brief tornado risk within the line of storms with
any surges to the east/northeast. Locally heavy rainfall and
localized flooding will also be possible with the best potential
across far southern Missouri. A few of the stronger updrafts
will be capable of hail up to the size of half dollars.

Storms have developed across north central Kansas into Nebraska
early this evening with another area of storms across central
Oklahoma into south central Kansas. The activity across northern
Kansas and Nebraska are forming into line segments and should
continue to move off to the northeast. The storms across
central Oklahoma into south central Kansas are currently
supercells in nature, but a cold pool should develop with these
storms as they move east which should allow these storms to
form into a line.

Once the storms across Oklahoma and southern Kansas form into a
line they will move off the east/northeast at 30 to 40kts. An
unstable air mass will be in place across the area with 1500 to
2200 J/kg of MLCAPE in place west of Highway 65, with values of
1200 to 1700 J/kg to the east overnight. Damaging straight line
winds will occur with the line of segments with gusts up to
80mph possible with the bowing segments. The 00Z SGF sounding
is showing down draft CAPES over 1000 J/kg which is also
supports strong down drafts. Low level shear will also increase
tonight. 0-3KM shear vectors are currently at 26kt across the
area and should increase to around 40kt to the northeast across
of the line of storms. This will support a QLCS tornado risk
with the line of storms with surges in the line to the
northeast.

There are some indications that the the southern part of the
line of storms will become outflow dominate across southern
MO/northern Arkansas and the outflow become parallel with the
0-3km shear vectors and could lead to the potential for some
training of storms and a localized flooding risk tonight. Will
have to watch exactly where this will form.

The storms will push east to the I-49 corridor by 9 to 11 PM to
the Highway 65 corridor by 12 to 2 AM, then to Highway 63 by 2
to 4 AM and the main line of storms should push east of the area
by 6AM, though some linger storms could occur across south
central Missouri until closer to 8 AM. Again damaging straight
line winds will be the main risk across the entire area with
wind gusts up to 80 mph possible and a few short lived tornadoes
mainly along and west of Highway 65. Hail up to half dollars
and localized flash flooding will also be possible tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a strong upper level shortwave trough across
Wyoming and Colorado with a 120kt upper level jet across Arizona
and New Mexico. Surface low pressure continues to deepen across
South Dakota with a secondary low across Kansas. A warm front
was in the process of lifting north through the area at this
time. A dry line was located across western Kansas and western
Oklahoma with storms already initiating across northern Kansas.
12z KSGF sounding showed a stable airmass in place (north of the
warm front) however soundings south of the warm front measured a
moist and unstable airmass. Visible satellite showed breaks
in the clouds across the area which should allow the warm front
to continue lifting north. A few showers were occuring however
many areas were dry with temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Dewpoints were also creeping up into the lower 60s.

This Afternoon through early evening (1pm-8pm): The warm front
will continue lifting north through the area and temps will
continue warming up into the 70s which will increase
instability. While a few showers and even a thunderstorm may
develop, upper level forcing will still be to the west therefore
many areas will remain dry. All eyes will be on developing
supercells in a High Risk severe environment across southern
Kansas and northern Oklahoma. These storms will begin to evolve
into a line with time.

Tonight (After 9pm): High res ensembles continue to be in good
agreement that a line of severe storms will approach far
southeast Kansas in that 9-10pm timeframe. RAP forecast
soundings across southeast Kansas and western Missouri indicate
around 1500j/kg of ML CAPE (potentially up to 2000j/kg) with
40kts of 0-6km shear (this will increase further with time). The
120kt 300mb jet will be nosing into the area tonight. Also of
note is that 1.4-1.5in PW values which indicates a very moist
airmass. All this leads to high confidence that storms will
remain severe as they approach the area. Given the expected
linear mode and high instability/shear combo, damaging winds of
60-80mph will be the most likely risk as highlighted in the SPC
Moderate/Enhanced risk areas. That being said, any bowing
segments to the east- northeast or northeast could cause brief
tornadoes. We believe that the threat for supercells and
significant tornadoes will remain just west of the area however
if storms were slower to morph into a line then this expectation
would change. Southeast Kansas will need to closely monitor
storm mode tonight. The hail threat looks lower with this
system given the linear mode however hail up to the size of half
dollars will be possible.

As the line moves further east (between I-49 and Highway 65),
the damaging wind threat (60-80mph winds) and brief tornado
threat will continue. Latest RAP sounding for Springfield
between 11pm-1am still shows 1000-1500j/kg of ML CAPE with 40kts
of shear. PW values are also in the 1.4-1.5in range which
supports heavy rainfall rates.

While it does look like storms will gradually weaken as they
move east of Highway 65, the instability/shear combo will
remain high enough to keep the damaging wind/brief tornado
threat going however perhaps not as high a threat as areas
further west. In general, the line of storms will likely be
clearing the area by 5-7am.

Overall a busy overnight period is expected with the increasing
potential for widespread damaging winds. We will continue to
heavily message safety information for this night time severe
event.

Contemplated a Flood Watch for areas west of Springfield tonight
however given the progressive nature of this line, flooding will
remain localized and brief. 12z HREF does show a few pockets of
1-2 inches of rainfall across far southeast Kansas therefore we
will be monitoring this risk.

Tuesday: The airmass will likely be worked over from overnight
storms and combined with mid level height rises we should see
low precip chances (less than 20 percent). Winds will turn
southwesterly during the day with skies clearing and temps
reaching the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Wednesday: Another shortwave trough will move through the
southern Plains with a surface front moving through the area
during the afternoon or early evening. Strong instability will
be available with the NBM mean showing between 2000-2500j/kg of
surface based CAPE along and southeast of the I-44 corridor.
This instability and unidirectional shear could produce
supercell thunderstorms and the area is in a Enhanced Risk on
Wednesday. There still remains uncertainty with frontal timing
and since we are not in the window of time yet for the high res
guidance it is urged to stay up on the forecast for Wednesday.

Thursday into the Weekend: The overall trend during this time
period is drier conditions and cooler temps. This is likely due
to a pattern shift with northwest flow aloft causing north
surface winds. Friday looks to be the coolest day with highs in
the 60s in many locations.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 532 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Gusty southeasterly winds will continue this evening, some MVFR
ceilings could occur, but mainly VFR conditions will occur. A
few isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorms may be possible
this evening but most locations will remain dry through 9PM.

Storms have developed across central Oklahoma and Kansas early
this evening. These storms will continue to move east and
developing into a line or lines of storms. This activity will
move into the area western portions of the area late this
evening and through the rest of the area overnight. These storms
will have the potential for damaging winds, frequent lightning
and brief heavy rain. IFR to LIFR conditions will occur with the
storms. The storms will move east from west to east overnight
into early Tuesday morning. Winds will turn to more
southwesterly behind the storms and remain gusty on Tuesday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

MESOSCALE...
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
749 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-080100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
749 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Significant thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk.

DISCUSSION...

Severe thunderstorms remain likely tonight as a line of
thunderstorms approaches far southeast Kansas by 11pm and then
moves east through southwest Missouri overnight. The line of
storms will likely be out of the area by sunrise Tuesday.

Widespread damaging winds of 60 to 80 mph is the most likely
risk, especially along and west of Highway 65. However, there
will be the potential for brief, short lived tornadoes. Large
hail up to the size of half dollars and frequent lightning will
also be a concern.

A localized flooding risk overnight will also occur overnight with
the greatest potential likely across southern Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday. Exact hazards remains in question, but very large
hail,damaging, and a conditional tornado threat are all in play.
SPC has an Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for most of the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed tonight for southeast Kansas
  and southwest Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
159 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 SE Glidewell          37.27N 93.28W
05/07/2024                   Greene             MO   Public

            Report from mPING, 1-inch tree limbs broken,
            Shingles blown off. Time based on radar.

&&

TEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
200 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MOZ091-092-095-096-104-105-070800-
Douglas MO-Wright MO-Taney MO-Ozark MO-Webster MO-Christian MO-
200 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN OZARK...SOUTHEASTERN
WEBSTER...WRIGHT...DOUGLAS...CENTRAL TANEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM CDT...

At 200 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles west of Hartville to 10 miles southeast
of Sparta to Hollister. Movement was northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Branson, Lake Taneycomo, Table Rock State Park, Bryant Creek State
Park, Table Rock Lake, Bull Shoals Lake, Mountain Grove, Hollister,
Ava, Forsyth, Seymour, Merriam Woods, Mansfield, Kissee Mills,
Rockaway Beach, Dawson, Norwood, Hartville, Taneyville, and
Kirbyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for southwestern
Missouri. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
south central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 9331 3688 9300 3727 9266 3746 9225
      3706 9225 3705 9209 3680 9210 3679 9212
      3667 9214 3655 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0700Z 241DEG 51KT 3724 9265 3691 9293 3663 9324

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Springfield MO
201 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSW Pierce City       36.90N 94.02W
05/07/2024  M55 MPH          Barry              MO   AWOS

            Corrects previous non-tstm wnd gst report
            from 3 SSW Pierce City. AWOS station KHFJ
            Monett AWOS.

&&

TEO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
203 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

MOZ058-070-071-082-083-070800-
Dent MO-Maries MO-Phelps MO-Pulaski MO-Texas MO-
203 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MARIES...NORTHERN DENT...
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...EASTERN PULASKI AND PHELPS COUNTIES THROUGH 300
AM CDT...

At 203 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near McGirk to near Richland to 11 miles west
of Fort Leonard Wood to 7 miles north of Hartville. Movement was east
at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rolla, Fort Leonard Wood, Salem, Waynesville, St. Robert, St. James,
Dixon, Belle, Doolittle, Vienna, Newburg, Edgar Springs, Plato,
Lenox, Beulah, Lake Spring, Anutt, Bangert, Roby, and Rosati.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 157 and 169, and
between mile markers 171 and 200.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for southwestern
Missouri. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
south central, central and east central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 9225 3764 9225 3802 9218 3829 9219
      3829 9165 3815 9164 3815 9154 3812 9152
      3779 9153 3779 9131 3770 9130 3769 9119
TIME...MOT...LOC 0703Z 248DEG 48KT 3856 9252 3779 9237 3767 9236 3736
9251

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
204 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Brooklyn Heights   37.15N 94.37W
05/06/2024                   Jasper             MO   Public

            Report from mPING, Trees uprooted or
            snapped, Roof blown off. Time based on
            radar,.

&&

TEO

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
218 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 E Brooklyn Heights    37.16N 94.36W
05/06/2024                   Jasper             MO   Public

            Report from mPING, Trees uprooted or
            snapped, Roof blown off. Time based on
            radar.

&&

TEO