Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
617 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant flooding continues over parts of west central
  Missouri and southeast Kansas from earlier heavy rain.

- Conditional risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening
  with damaging wind gusts the main risk. Flood watch has been
  extended until 10 pm.

- The unsettled pattern continues with additional storm chances
  mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show upper low circulation over
southern SD into northern NE with trough axis becoming
negatively tilted. Southwest flow continues over the area
southeast of the low. Surface low was located over eastern NE
with the surface front extending south of the low into south
central KS and western OK. Atmosphere was really worked over
from last night and this mornings MCS. Low clouds were finally
starting to erode, but surface temperatures were still in the
mid 60s with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. Very little
to no instability over the area early this afternoon.  Yet...

Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and tonight: CAMS remain
VERY bullish with redevelopment this afternoon, especially the
HRRR. We have backed off on severity from earlier in the
morning, but hard to ignore all the models wanting to redevelop
something. Convection is expected to redevelop over eastern
Oklahoma ahead of the front and spread northeast into western
Missouri and then advancing eastward across the remainder of the
area during the evening into the early part of the overnight
hours. If some stronger storms do develop, the main risk would
be with damaging straight line winds and a lower risk of large
hail. We have removed the tornado risk from the HWO at this
time. Heavy rain will continue to be possible with the
redeveloping convection and we have extended the flood watch
through 10 pm. Significant flooding continues over the northwest
portion of the CWA where 7 to 10 inches of rain has occurred
over the last several days. Several rivers are in major flood
stage over west central Missouri. Luckily the heaviest rainfall
will occur east of there with any redevelopment tonight. There
are some areas east of an Osage Beach to Neosho line that have
1-2 additional inches of rainfall tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The upper wave should push east of the area on Monday and we
should have generally dry conditions through Tuesday.

Rain should exit out of the far eastern CWA on Monday morning
with clearing during the day. Temperatures should heat up into
the 80s on Tuesday. An upper wave will lift from the northern
plains into the upper Mississippi valley with a surface front
approaching from the northwest. It may be enough for some rain
chances Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The main upper trough will approach the area from the west
Wednesday night into the later part of the week with shower and
thunderstorm chances increasing over the area. The main system
should move through late Friday into Friday night with clearing
and cooler conditions for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Showers and storms will be ongoing at the beginning of the TAF
period as a front remains west of the region. Where showers and
storms occur, expect MVFR to IFR flight conditions. Wind shear
in the vicinity of convection can be expected. Storms can be
expected through 08-09Z with diminishing effects of storms as
the system moves east of the area.

Conditions will improve into Monday, though MVFR to low end VFR
ceilings will remain across the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
     066>069-077>081-088>096-101>105.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
226 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

There is a Slight (2/5) risk for severe weather for most of our
forecast area today. If enough instability can develop in the
wake of this mornings showers and storms, then there will be a
risk of redevelopment of thunderstorms this afternoon. Damaging
wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail to the size of half dollars will
be possible if redevelopment can occur.

Additionally, this will bring 1-2 more inches of additional
rainfall for locations east of a Neosho to Osage Beach line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Multiple storm chances return Tuesday night through Friday. Some
days may exhibit a severe threat, but exact details are uncertain
at this time. Our western counties are within a Marginal (1/5)
risk for Tuesday night and we have been mentioned in the SPC Day
4/5 outlook for Wednesday/Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation is not expected for this afternoon or tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
628 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

MOZ101-290015-
McDonald MO-
628 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MCDONALD COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM
CDT...

At 628 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Maysville, or 9 miles east of Jay, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Big Sugar Creek State Park, Anderson, Noel, Goodman, South West City,
Pineville, Lanagan, Powell, and Rocky Comfort.

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 1 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3663 9461 3676 9446 3675 9408
      3660 9408 3650 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 231DEG 35KT 3644 9463

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

KSZ101-290015-
Cherokee KS-
641 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CHEROKEE COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM
CDT...

At 640 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Treece, or 8 miles east of Chetopa, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Baxter Springs, Columbus, Galena, Cherokee, Weir, Lowell, Scammon,
West Mineral, Treece, Roseland, Neutral, Melrose, Riverton, Lawton,
Carona, Skidmore, Hallowell, Sherwin, Faulkner, and Stippville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 9490 3734 9462 3704 9462 3700 9465
      3700 9507 3706 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 213DEG 33KT 3706 9495

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatch