Severe Thunderstorm Warning 415, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
243 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light drizzle into tonight.

- 30-100% chance of rain (lowest NW, highest SE) late Sunday
  into Monday. A few thunderstorms possible.

- Above normal temperatures through Tuesday, then trending
  cooler.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

Rain has largely shifted east this afternoon. With the closed
and stacked low just NW of the CWA, low level moisture is
streaming in from the NW behind the system. Light drizzle is
already being observed across and NW of the NW CWA and that is
expected to expand across the area tonight. The most favored
areas will be north of Highway 60 where upslope flow, high low
level RH values, low level lift, and a strong inversion will be
present. Near surface moisture levels will be low enough to keep
drizzle light. Drizzle will end from SW to NE late tonight into
early Sunday as the low shifts away from the area. Lows tonight
will be in the mid to upper 30s.

As clearing occurs over the SW late tonight, expect fog to
develop. Mainly looking at an area from far SE KS through far
south-central MO along the AR border. Could see some dense fog,
but confidence in related details is limited.

Sunday brings some uncertainty as a shortwave ridge will move,
but guidance is mixed on if clouds will remain over the area
trapped beneath the inversion. At this time, thinking that
clouds are most likely to persist over the southern CWA, with
clearing to partly cloudy skies at times over the north. Clouds
will expand from the SW later in the day ahead of the next
system. Look for highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s, but
temperatures may be kept a little cooler where clouds linger.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

A shortwave will move through the area late Sunday into Monday,
bringing a 30-100% PoP gradient to the area, with the greatest
chances and amounts being along and south of I-44. In this
area, forecast rainfall is in the 0.5-1.0" range. Over the far
NW, less than 0.10" is forecast but these areas may stay
completely dry. Most areas will be dry by noon on Monday, with
the far SE being dry by mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms are
also possible, but no severe weather is expected.

Highs will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s Monday, then in the 50s
Tuesday.

There is a 40-70% chance of rain late Tuesday into Wednesday as
another disturbance and cold front move through. Best chances
are again across the SE. There remains greater uncertainty with
chances, timing, and amounts with this system.

Cooler and dry conditions are then expected behind the system
through late week. Look for highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s
Wednesday, then in the 40s Thursday and Friday. Lows are
forecast to be in the teens and 20s Wednesday night into Friday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

Showers are moving east of the TAF sites early this afternoon
and clouds are temporarily clearing from the west, but
additional clouds and periods of drizzle are expected to push in
from the west this afternoon and evening. Drizzle will then
shifts eastward through the night, with fog potentially
developing behind that late tonight into early Sunday.
Confidence in details related to drizzle and fog is limited, but
current expectation is for fog to primarily be an issue at KJLN
and KBBG. Conditions should improve to VFR by late morning or
early afternoon on Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
148 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-152000-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
148 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Fog risk.

DISCUSSION...

Fog is possible across portions of southwest Missouri and
southeast Kansas tonight into early Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

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