Severe Thunderstorm Warning 363, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
603 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Round of showers and thunderstorms this morning (40-80%
  chance) with lightning and brief heavy rainfall.

- A heavier round of showers and thunderstorms tonight into
  Wednesday morning could cause flash flooding. A narrow
  corridor of 2-4 inches of rain with localized amounts up to 7
  inches could occur however location of this corridor remains
  uncertain. Highest chances of rainfall (70-90%) are currently
  northeast of Springfield.

- Much warmer temperatures Wednesday and Thursday with heat
  indices reaching 100-108 degrees west of Springfield.

- Additional rain chances Thursday through Saturday (20-40%)
  with temperatures closer to average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows the center of a mid level high over northeast
Texas with our area remaining in a complex west/northwest flow
pattern. A 35kt low level jet across the Texas/Oklahoma
panhandles along with a reservoir of MU CAPES around 3000j/kg
was currently feeding a MCS across southwest Kansas. A
stationary front extended from the MCS, due east through
southeast Kansas and southern Missouri with northeast winds and
patchy fog across the Lake of the Ozarks region, north of the
front. It was rather humid and mild south of the front with
temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints around 70.

Today: Given the current MCS vectors pointing east to
east southeast and a instability/moisture gradient over the
area, the MCS over Kansas is likely to continue east towards the
area this morning. Current timing would have it moving into
southeast Kansas and western Missouri around 6-8am. This
activity would then continue east through the morning and
turning more southeast with time. The area is removed from the
higher wind shear therefore not expecting severe storms however
a few may produce gusty winds up to 50mph along with frequent
lightning. The MCS will be fairly progressive however given PW
values increasing would expect heavy rainfall rates with the
latest guidance showing 0.25 to 1 inch with a few areas locally
receiving 2 inches.

This MCS will likely move out of the area by the afternoon
however cloud cover will keep highs in the lower to middle 80s
for most areas. Areas southwest of Springfield may be slightly
warmer if sunshine returns quicker.

Tonight into Wednesday Morning: The morning MCS will likely keep
the stationary front in place through the evening however after
midnight a 40kt low level jet will develop again but farther
north into central Kansas, nosing into western/northwest
Missouri. Therefore the front will begin to slowly lift northeast
as a warm front. Strong lift from the low level jet and the
right entrance region of the upper jet will allow for the
development of showers and thunderstorms overnight. Latest high
res guidance shows a rather ominous scenario of strong
instability and moisture interacting with a front with corfidi
vectors pointing almost due south/perpendicular to the low level
jet. This could create a north to south zone of training
showers and thunderstorms. Forecast PW values from the RAP are
near climatological max (2.2-2.4in) therefore ingredients are in
place for a zone of very heavy rainfall rates.

Models have struggled the last few days with the placement of
heavier rainfall areas. This is not uncommon in active
west/northwest flow patterns as mesoscale features play a
pivotal role in the overall evolution. The 00z HREF guidance
suggests that the corridor of overnight training storms resides
from near Kansas City, to Lake of the Ozarks, to Rolla/Salem
(Generally northeast of Springfield). That being said, this
could shift, especially if this mornings activity lingers
longer into the day and complicates the environment.

Wherever that corridor develops is where a narrow band of 2-4
inches of rain will likely occur. HREF LPMM is showing 5-7
inches in small localized areas with a 40-50% chance of rainfall
over 4 inches shown in that corridor. While antecedent
conditions are dry, rainfall of that magnitude will cause flash
flooding given our terrain. It should also be noted that areas
southwest of the zone of rainfall may not see much rain at all. We
will need to get a handle on that zone of rainfall today and
will continue to investigate an area for a Flood Watch. The
timeframe of the heaviest rainfall looks to be between 2am and
10am Wednesday with rainfall weakening after that as the low
level jet subsidies.

Wednesday Afternoon: The zone of heavy rainfall will also play a
role in the afternoon excessive heat potential. 850mb temps of
20-24C will nose into southwest Missouri during the day and
areas unaffected by the rain will experience hot temperatures in
the middle 90s with dewpoints in the 70s. This will likely
create a corridor of heat index values of 100-108 degrees.
Latest HREF data suggests a 50-80% chance of heat indicies
reaching 105 or higher across southeast Kansas and the I-49
corridor. Areas further east, including Springfield will be
right on the edge of this heat. A Heat Advisory will likely be
needed for western areas on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Thursday through Friday: Ensembles suggest that the ridge will
begin to be suppressed south and west as stronger shortwave
energy moves through the northern plains. This will allow for a
cold front to drop south into the area on Thursday with showers
and thunderstorms developing perhaps by afternoon or evening.
Wind fields will be stronger therefore will need to monitor for
the potential for some severe storms. Excessive heat may also
occur ahead of the front on Thursday with heat indices of
100-105 along and south of I-44 however confidence is low given
the frontal timing. Rain chances generally remain less than 30
percent on Friday with cooler temperatures.

Saturday through Monday: Ensembles are in decent agreement that
the mid level ridge will remain southwest of the area with our
area in northwest flow. This pattern typically resembles cooler
temperatures with NBM data suggesting highs in the upper 80s.
Precip chances are always a challenge in this pattern with
current chances less than 30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through for most of the TAF period
however showers and thunderstorms will move into the sites this
morning, lasting through 18z. Have included tempo groups for now
however amendments may be needed. Winds will remain light out of
the south however a brief wind shift to the northwest may occur
with thunderstorms later this morning before a return to the
southeast this afternoon. Thunderstorms may redevelop near SGF
overnight however confidence is too low to include at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
452 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-141000-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
452 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk
  Limited Fog risk.

DISCUSSION...

Dense fog will reduce visibilities to less than one mile at times
through sunrise for locations northeast of Springfield.

Showers and thunderstorms will move into the area from the west
this morning. Frequent lightning, brief heavy rainfall and wind
gusts up to 50 mph will occur with the strongest storms.
Thunderstorms will decrease in coverage by afternoon and
evening.

Afternoon heat index values could reach the upper 90s across far
southwest Missouri if enough clearing occurs.

A narrow corridor of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
rates will occur overnight to the northeast of Springfield. Flash
flooding could develop in these areas if storms move over the same
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A corridor of showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
Wednesday morning to the northeast of Springfield with lightning
and localized flash flooding.

Heat index values will climb to between 100 and 108 degrees for
portions of southeast Kansas and southern Missouri Wednesday and
Thursday.

There is a marginal to slight risk for a few severe thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening across the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
901 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

MOZ066-077-078-088-089-094-131445-
Vernon MO-Cedar MO-Barton MO-Jasper MO-Dade MO-Lawrence MO-
901 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BARTON...SOUTHERN CEDAR...
LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN VERNON...JASPER AND DADE COUNTIES THROUGH 945
AM CDT...

At 900 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sheldon to near Lamar to Duquesne.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Joplin, Carthage, Webb City, Stockton Lake, Stockton State Park, Carl
Junction, Mount Vernon, Lamar, Oronogo, Carterville, Stockton,
Duquesne, Greenfield, Sarcoxie, Duenweg, Lockwood, Jasper, Golden
City, Miller, and Airport Drive.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 9 and 58.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 36 and 82.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3745 9439 3773 9441 3774 9362 3702 9362
      3706 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1400Z 269DEG 41KT 3773 9424 3745 9422 3706 9444

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
916 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

MOZ093-094-101-102-131445-
Barry MO-Newton MO-McDonald MO-Lawrence MO-
916 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NEWTON...MCDONALD...NORTHWESTERN
BARRY AND SOUTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES THROUGH 945 AM CDT...

At 916 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Diamond to Neosho to 7 miles northeast of
Grove. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Joplin, Neosho, Big Sugar Creek State Park, Monett,
Seneca, Granby, Anderson, Noel, Duquesne, Dodge, Pierce City,
Goodman, Purdy, South West City, Diamond, Pineville, Wheaton,
Leawood, Silver Creek, and Verona.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 near mile marker 9.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 1 and 35.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 9462 3706 9447 3704 9370 3675 9392
      3650 9451 3650 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1416Z 269DEG 45KT 3706 9426 3684 9434 3665 9467

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Price