Severe Thunderstorm Warning 341, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
802 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for far southern Missouri through
  9 PM with heat index values ranging from 100-105 degrees.

- There is a Slight risk (2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  across much of the area this evening. Damaging winds will be
  the primary hazard.

- Storms this evening will produce efficient rainfall rates
  resulting in a risk of localized flash flooding.

- Cooler conditions return Friday into next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 801 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A surface cold front continues to slowly move southeast across
the Missouri Ozarks. As of 8 PM, the front is analyzed from
Neosho to Nixa to near Houston. Weak height falls are
overspreading the region which will support the front continuing
to slowly move southeast throughout the remainder of the
evening.

Deep moisture convergence will continue to increase along and
ahead of the front and will support continued development of
scattered thunderstorms. The greatest coverage of storms will
initially occur across southwestern Missouri through 9 PM. This
activity will then expand and shift northeast along and south of
the I-44 corridor through midnight. Most of the activity will
exit the eastern Ozarks by 09Z.

The 00Z KSGF sounding indicates that the environment is highly
unstable with MLCAPE values over 3200 J/kg with virtually no
inhibition. Low-level theta-e differentials over 30K will be
supportive of localized damaging wind gusts with the initial
scattered activity. Deep layer shear of 25-30 knots and expected
cold pool conglomeration may result in some upscale growth into
linear clusters. This would correspondingly enhance damaging
wind potential in the 02 to 05 UTC time frame if the upscale
growth does indeed occur. A few storms may also produce hail to
the size of quarters.

We will also be monitoring the potential for locally heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding as precipitable water
values remain in the 1.7-2.0" range with rather slow storm
motions. We are going to leave the ongoing Flood Watch as is
given that this activity will shift into much of the watch
region over the next few hours. The western extent of the watch
may be cancelled early if storms remain to the southeast of that
particular area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Afternoon temperatures have climbed into the upper 80s to lower
90s. Combine with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s, heat
index values were in the 100 to 110 range, especially across
southern Missouri. This heat and moisture will set the stage for
potential shower and storms development late this afternoon
into early this evening.

CAMS continue to struggle with initiation across the Ozarks but
do indicate the potential for showers and storms to begin
developing across far eastern Kansas and Northeastern Oklahoma
between from 21z this afternoon onward (more likely closer to
22-23z), depending on the model of choice.

CAPE values in the 2500-3500j/kg range were in place across the
region. As an upper level trough moves across the northern
plains and a surface low in Oklahoma begin to shift east a cold
front will begin to make its way into the region this evening
and overnight. With the expected frontal lift and no cap,
showers and storms are expected to develop mainly west of I-49
and move east through this evening.

While there looks to be limited low-level Jet support for
storms, with the front moving towards the region, and upper
level jet energy across northern Missouri providing some upper
level support, some storms will be capable of becoming strong
to severe. The main concern remains damaging winds with D-CAPE
(downdraft CAPE) of 1000-1400j/kg supporting this. Hail
potential is less concerning, but 500-900j/kg in the hail growth
zone (-10 to -30 degree level) and 35-40kts of 0-6km shear
would allow for isolated large hail. The tornado chances are
rather low though not zero and will rest on how storms develop
and move east this evening.

Will also monitor for flood potential with PW values in the 1.7
to 1.9" range noted across the region. This will allow for
heavy rainfall potential, which may have impact across areas
that received rainfall last night. Additional rain amount around
an inch with locally 2 inch or higher amounts will be possible
with storms as they move across the region this evening. Thus,
the current Flash Flood Watch continues for this evening.

Showers and storms will push south and east of the region
overnight with clearing skies behind the cold front occurring by
sunrise or earlier. Cooler temperatures will filter into the
area behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

From Friday onward, temperatures will return closer to annual
climatology, with highs in the 80s for the rest of the week as a
cooler and drier airmass moves over our area. Precipitation chances
return Sunday night as a shortwave trough over the Great Plains
moves south. Both the 12z GFS and ECMWF develop convection over the
southern Great Plains Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, and
there is some model support for a possible MCS that develops north
of this convection that may move into southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri. Confidence in the exact details of this event will become
clearer as we approach it. For now, precipitation chances are set
from 50-70%.

Early next week, ensembles show a pattern of upper-level ridging
developing across the western U.S. This will put us in a regime of
northwesterly flow. Precipitation chances for the rest of next week
currently sit below 30%.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A passing cold front will bring scattered thunderstorms to
southern Missouri this evening. The main impacts to the
terminals will occur between 01 and 06 UTC. IFR visibilities
can be expected beneath thunderstorms along with gusty and
erratic winds.

The storms will then shift southeast of the area late tonight
with VFR prevailing into Friday. Surface winds will remain out
of the northwest through Friday with afternoon gusts around 20
knots.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for KSZ073-097.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-083-089.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ093-095>098-
     101>106.

&&

MESOSCALE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Schaumann

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
847 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-060200-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
847 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to spread
northeast along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor this
evening. Storms are then expected to exit the eastern Missouri
Ozarks by 3 AM.

The main potential hazards with these storms will be damaging wind
gusts to 60 mph, hail to the size of quarters, frequent lightning,
and localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The potential for thunderstorms will then return for Sunday and
Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 3 AM generally along and
south of the Interstate 44 corridor.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
933 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Billings                37.07N 93.55W
07/04/2024                   Christian          MO   Emergency Mngr

            Tree down on a home.

&&

SR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
935 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Clever                  37.03N 93.47W
07/04/2024                   Christian          MO   Emergency Mngr

            Power lines down in Clever.

&&

SR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
942 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

MOZ088-093-094-102-103-050330-
Barry MO-Jasper MO-Newton MO-Lawrence MO-Stone MO-
942 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...NORTHERN
STONE...NORTHERN BARRY...LAWRENCE AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES
THROUGH 1030 PM CDT...

At 941 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Verona, or near Monett, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carthage, Monett, Aurora, Mount Vernon, Marionville, Crane, Sarcoxie,
Pierce City, Purdy, Verona, Butterfield, Galena, Fidelity, Stotts
City, Hurley, Freistatt, Wentworth, Avilla, La Russell, and Reeds.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 15 and 49.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 36 and 39.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3707 9438 3726 9419 3718 9389 3708 9360
      3700 9361 3699 9350 3685 9336 3668 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 267DEG 28KT 3698 9386

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1001 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

MOZ090-091-095-096-104-050330-
Douglas MO-Greene MO-Taney MO-Webster MO-Christian MO-
1001 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEBSTER...WESTERN DOUGLAS...
NORTHEASTERN TANEY...EASTERN CHRISTIAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1030 PM CDT...

At 1000 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Strafford to 6 miles east of Sparta to
near Taneyville. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Northeastern Springfield, Marshfield, Rogersville, Ava, Strafford,
Seymour, Sparta, Fordland, Niangua, Diggins, Oldfield, Turners,
Brownbranch, Elkhead, Bruner, Keltner, Northview, Garrison, Rome, and
Chadwick.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 82 and 100.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3679 9317 3702 9313 3725 9322 3740 9281
      3715 9268 3707 9268 3707 9264 3706 9263
      3681 9270 3681 9276 3676 9277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 262DEG 19KT 3727 9308 3703 9297 3682 9301

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1008 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

MOZ088>090-094-095-103-050345-
Greene MO-Jasper MO-Dade MO-Lawrence MO-Christian MO-Stone MO-
1008 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHRISTIAN...
NORTHWESTERN STONE...NORTHERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHWESTERN GREENE...EAST
CENTRAL JASPER AND SOUTHEASTERN DADE COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM CDT...

At 1007 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles south of Golden
City to 6 miles northwest of Billings to near Clever. Movement was
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Nixa, Ozark, Republic, Battlefield, Willard, Mount
Vernon, Marionville, Clever, Ash Grove, Crane, Billings, Fremont
Hills, Miller, Everton, Brookline, Hurley, Halltown, Avilla, and
Chesapeake.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 46 and 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 9392 3728 9326 3710 9320 3687 9352
      3706 9373 3722 9420
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 243DEG 24KT 3724 9406 3711 9365 3696 9351

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Price