Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
719 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer this week with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above
  normal through Thursday. Gusty south-southwest winds
  complement the warm temperatures.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return late
  this evening. There is a low chance for an isolated strong to
  severe storm thunderstorm capable of producing hail up to the
  size of quarters and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- An active weather pattern will continue with additional shower
  and thunderstorm chances occur Wednesday afternoon/evening
  (30-60%) then again on Thursday afternoon/night (50-80%).
  There are associated risks each day for a few strong to
  severe thunderstorms.

- Temperatures return near normal for mid-March on Friday and
  drier weather expected for the weekend, with below normal
  temperatures early next week.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A compact shortwave across southeast Kansas has kicked off a few
thunderstorms around the KC metro this evening. Likely due to
closer proximity to the surface low and slightly stronger
moisture convergence. Development has struggled further south
along the front across eastern Kansas however the last few
visible satellite images and recent radar scans now showing at
least one thunderstorm across Neosho County Kansas.

00Z KSGF sounding data is in and shows 326j/kg of ML CAPE with
106j/kg of ML CIN. Therefore weak instability and a capping
inversion is in place. Mid level clouds approaching Springfield
now also have shown no sign of development which leads to
confidence in a capped, dry low level environment. The sounding
also measured a mid level lapse rate of 8.7C/KM which is steep
and shows the strong cooling aloft which would promote hail
growth. Effective bulk wind shear is around 34kts which is
enough for organized storms, including supercells if higher
instability is present. There is higher instability and weaker
capping in a narrow corridor across southeast Kansas and western
Missouri (RAP suggests as high as 1000j/kg). This is the area
we will continue to monitor for storm development over the next
3 hours. Once we get after 10pm inhibition increases and
thunderstorm chances decrease further.

The thunderstorm that occurred near KC ended up producing
 1.5 to 1.75in hail. That area also had slightly weaker wind
shear therefore if a thunderstorm can develop further south it
has higher chances of becoming a supercell with large hail and
damaging winds the main threat. We currently have 1 inch hail in
our messaging however if supercells do indeed form then we
could see hail up to golf balls as they saw to our north.
However the coverage of storms is still expected to be low (only
a few storms expected).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Through Tonight: A warm afternoon across the Ozarks as surface
high pressure has settled southeast of the region. This has
allowed low-level moisture to begin advecting north along the
backside of the high through the Red River Valley. Dewpoints
will climb into the upper 40s to lower 50s across portions of
southeast Kansas into southwest and west central Missouri.
Meanwhile, gusty southerly winds continue, with the strongest
wind gusts along and west of Highway 65. In this area, 30 to 40
mph wind gusts have been observed through the early afternoon.
Areas east of Highway 65 have observed gusts around 20 to 25
mph. Wind gusts will subside through the evening. The
combination of gusty winds and dry conditions has set the stage
for another day of elevated fire weather conditions. While
increasing moisture across the west inhibits elevated fire
conditions, areas to the east remain dry with minimum afternoon
humidity values around 30 to 40%.

By this evening, a shortwave translates east out of the Central
Plains. Guidance continues to show 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
building across the west in the vicinity of effective shear
around 30 to 40 knots. It is worth noting that the better shear
profile remains displaced south of the best instability. Expect
lift to increase with the approach of the shortwave and a 30 to
40 knot low-level jet across western Missouri. There continues
to be agreement that any convection that is able to break the
cap will be elevated in nature. Confidence remains low on any
thunderstorm being rooted to the surface, especially after
sunset this evening. CAMs have varied from the run to run
through this morning, but the general consensus has been for a
few isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop within the
Interstate 49 corridor and move east into tonight. Given the
environment, there is a low chance (5%) for a strong to severe
thunderstorm within a Marginal (1/5) Severe Weather Outlook
(SWO). Given the elevated nature of this convection, hail up to
the size of quarters will be the primary risk, with a secondary
concern of damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph if MLCIN weakens
enough. Any thunderstorms able to develop will weaken and
diminish towards sunrise east of the Highway 65 corridor as the
environment becomes less supportive with minimal moisture
availability and a stout cap. Overnight lows remain mild in the
lower to middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Wednesday: The upper-level trough across the western CONUS digs
into the desert southwest on Wednesday. As this happens, an
associated surface low develops and lifts north across western
Kansas on Wednesday afternoon. A warm front will extend east
from the surface low into central Missouri, being the focus for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Meanwhile,
another warm day is expected across the area with highs in the
middle to upper 70s. Surface dewpoints climb into the middle to
upper 50s by Wednesday afternoon as low-level advection
continues into the area. Most of the morning and early afternoon
should remain dry before increasing chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the evening (40-60%). Areas south
within the warm sector will see warmer temperatures in the mid-
levels, which keeps precipitation chances much lower (10-30%)
through the afternoon and evening. There remains uncertainty in
the extent of coverage given a strong cap over the Missouri
Ozarks through the afternoon. However, a strengthening low-
level jet into the late afternoon and evening may provide enough
support to erode the cap across central into northern Missouri
as the warm front continues to lift north. This would support
scattered showers and thunderstorms development in the vicinity
of 1000 to 2000 J/kg MUCAPE and effective shear around 40 knots.
Model soundings suggest that some of this convection may once
again be elevated in nature. Steep mid-level lapse rates around
7.5 to 8.0 C/km would support large up the size of golf balls as
the primary hazard. Furthermore, the Large Hail Parameter
depicts values around 8 to 10 in the vicinity, which supports
hail up to the size of golf balls. Larger hail may be realized
if a thunderstorm becomes surface based, as a supercell would be
a favorable storm mode. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
remains a secondary hazard, while the tornado threat remains
very low (2%). There is a Marginal SWO (1/5) across southeast
Kansas/southwest Missouri into central Missouri to cover the low
threat (5%) for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms.
A Slight SWO (2/5) borders along our northwestern counties, as
the environmental becomes less capped and more favorable across
northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri near the surface low.
Overall, the most plausible scenario is convection being tied to
the warm front, with lower chances within the warm sector
through Wednesday evening. The exact placement of the warm front
by Wednesday evening remains a key factor in the forecast and
associated precipitation chances in our area. An alternate
scenario may feature little to no convection across the area if
the cap remains strong and the front lifts north of our area
quick enough. Further mesoscale details may be better resolved
over the next 24 hours.

Thursday: The upper level trough across desert southwest becomes
cut off into Thursday. As this happens, additional shortwave
energy and associated surface low lifts to the northwest of the
area. A strong cold front approaches the area into the afternoon
and evening. High temperatures reach into the upper 70s ahead of
the front despite increasing cloud cover. Current ensemble
guidance suggests adequate instability and shear will be
present on Thursday afternoon and evening to support a potential
(15%) for strong to severe thunderstorms. This is represented
with the a Slight SWO (2/5) bisecting the area. Model soundings
feature an environment favorable for supercell storm mode
initially, before potentially growing upscale into a line of
thunderstorms or line segments. This will be best resolved in
the near term. The trend continues to suggest the more favorable
low-level environments for tornadoes to be tied to the area
near the surface low in Iowa. Large hail up the size of golf
balls and damaging wind gusts remain the primary concerns,
though the tornado threat may need further attention in
subsequent forecasts. Localized heavy rainfall may occur within
some thunderstorms given efficient rainfall rates (PWATs around
1.0-1.2 inch). The localized threat will be limited to repeated
thunderstorms over the same locations. Widespread flooding is
not expected. General rainfall amounts will range from 0.75 to
1.5 inches, with localized heavier amounts possible.

Friday-Monday: The cold front clears the area through Friday
morning with a cooler airmass filtering into the region. Expect
breezy north-northwest winds on Friday with highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s areawide. This is right around normal for mid-
March. Drier airmass builds into the area through the weekend.
Highs in the lower 60s on Saturday before secondary pushes of
cold air slide through the region on Sunday and Monday. Highs by
late weekend into early next week may be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal. This would suggest highs in to middle to upper 40s, and
overnight lows in the 20s to lower 30s. Any hard freezes into
mid to late March may pose the risk for susceptible early
season vegetation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Mid level clouds will move through this evening. There remains a
20-30 percent chance of a thunderstorm at the TAF sites this
evening however confidence is too low to include at this time.
Low level wind shear is likely overnight. Have included some
brief MVFR ceilings during the morning however VFR ceilings
should return for the afternoon. Winds will remain southerly
with increasing gusts again Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

MESOSCALE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Burchfield

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