Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1246 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to locally significant fire danger Sunday, especially
  east of Springfield.

- Winds increase Sunday and especially Sunday night into Monday with
  speeds of 20-25 mph and gusts of 35 to 45 mph.

- High chances (80-90%) of widespread showers and a few
  thunderstorms Sunday evening through Monday. Highest rainfall
  amounts east of Highway 65.

- Much cooler temperatures with several chances for below
  freezing low temperatures Tuesday-Thursday mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor and upper
analysis show a departing low pressure system over the southeast
U.S. and the next upper low off the Oregon coast. Pacific
moisture was streaming eastward into the southern plains south
of the low with a strong upper level jet streak. Surface low
pressure was developing in the high plains into the Rockies in
advance of the next system. Large stratus deck which was over
the entire CWA earlier today has quickly eroded this afternoon
with plenty of sunshine for the afternoon. Temperatures were
chilly in the 40s across the area, but with sunshine during the
afternoon should climb back into the 50s.

Tonight: A good area of upper divergence will spread into the
plains ahead of the next upper storm system. Southerly winds
will significantly increase in the plains as the pressure
gradient increases ahead of the developing surface low and
departing high pressure system. Our CWA will be on the edge of
the stronger winds tonight, but may see some gusty winds develop
at SGF with a favored funneling wind direction. Lows tonight
will be warmest out west in the mid 40s to the mid 30s in the
east.

Sunday: The pressure gradient will increase over the CWA on
Sunday and will see some gusty winds across the area, with some
gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible during the day. Upper level
divergence will increase over the western CWA late in the day
with shortwave energy spreading into the area. Surface low will
move into western Kansas. May see some showers develop late in
the day, but will need to overcome some very dry low levels for
anything to reach the ground. Widespread elevated fire weather
conditions are expected with some spotty localized significant
fire weather east of Springfield. Afternoon humidity levels are
expected to dip into the 20 to 30 percent range in the eastern
CWA with 30 to 40 percent humidity levels over the remainder of
the CWA. Afternoon high temperatures should reach the upper 50s
to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Sunday night into Monday night: Very windy conditions will then
develop Sunday night into Monday across the area as the low
pressure system approaches from the west. May eventually need a
wind advisory for the northwest half of the CWA during this time
frame with wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph possible. Rain chances
will increase on Sunday night into Monday as synoptic scale
lifting increases over the area. Instability looks pretty
limited for any kind of widespread severe chances despite the
strong shear, but would not rule out some stronger storms given
the strong dynamics with this system. Higher moisture will be
over the eastern CWA and our highest QPF totals of 1-2" are
expected there. The front and upper wave will then push through
the area on Monday night with the bulk of the precipitation
shifting east of the CWA by 12Z Tuesday.

Colder temperatures Tuesday into Tuesday night: Colder air will
push in behind this system and highs on Tuesday will only get
into the upper 40s to low 50s. A hard freeze will be possible on
Tuesday night across most of the area and we may need a freeze
warning as we get closer. High pressure should move into the
area on Wednesday with slightly warmer temperatures, but still
below normal for this time of year in the mid to upper 50s.

Warming trend of the end of the week: As the high pressure moves
out of the area, we'll begin to see some decent low level warm
advection for the end of the week and temperatures should rise
back to above normal in the 60s on Thursday and the 70s on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Though all three TAF sites will likely remain VFR through the
TAF period, there's still lots of "fun" stuff happening with
this complex setup. Over the last few hours, BBG has improved
from MVFR conditions, which was most likely due to near-surface
smoke from a fire upstream in AR. Lingering haze from this smoke
in the area isn't out of the question.

The low-level jet will continue to beef up overnight, bringing
low-level wind shear concerns up to 40-50kts through Sunday
morning. At SGF and BBG, there will be a local minima in wind
shear during the day before returning in force again Sunday
night. JLN will see the worst of the wind shear, and likely
won't dip below 30kts of shear at any point during the day
Sunday with the fringes of the 60kt low-level jet overhead. AWC
also highlights concern for LLWS with an AIRMET out through at
least 23Z Sunday.

Part of the LLWS can be traced back to surface winds, which
will be strong and gusty through the TAF period. Wind direction
will be slightly variable but from the southeast, with sustained
speeds of 20-25kts and gusts from 25-35+ knots. Have a feeling
that the models are underdoing wind speeds/gusts at the surface,
so wind increases may be coming in future updates.

Last thing- ~30% PoPs at JLN starting late Sunday afternoon. All
TAF sites can expect rain for sure Sunday night, though
confidence isn't particularly high that showers will start as
early as 21Z, thus the prob30. Another thing to monitor going
into Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Camden

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