Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Springfield, MO

804 
WGUS73 KSGF 041320
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
720 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

MOC067-091-215-041630-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0095.000000T0000Z-241104T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Douglas MO-Howell MO-Texas MO-
720 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CST THIS 
MORNING FOR HOWELL, SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN DOUGLAS 
COUNTIES...

At 720 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have 
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  West Plains, Mountain View, Willow Springs, Summersville, 
  Raymondville, Pomona, South Fork, White Church, Clear Springs, 
  Peace Valley, Siloam Springs, Arroll, Pottersville, Elk Creek, 
  Solo, Pine Crest, Eunice, Yukon, Caulfield, Moody, Hartshorn and 
  Ozark National Scenic Riverways.

This includes the following low water crossings...
  South Fork Jacks Fork River at Stillhouse Road, North Prong Jacks 
  Fork at Arroll Road, North Fork River at County Road 278, Bennetts 
  River at Highway 142, South Prong Jacks Fork River at Highway U, 
  Eleven Point River at County Road 1550 and Gill Branch at Highway 
  Y.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Many flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 9165 3689 9166 3650 9186 3651 9211
      3680 9211 3680 9240 3742 9176

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

EW

128 
WGUS73 KSGF 041406
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
806 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

MOC067-091-215-041630-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0095.000000T0000Z-241104T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Douglas MO-Howell MO-Texas MO-
806 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM CST THIS 
MORNING FOR HOWELL, SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN DOUGLAS 
COUNTIES...

At 806 AM CST, Department of Transportation reported flooding is 
occurring from heavy rainfall from thunderstorms across the warned 
area. Between 3 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is 
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  West Plains, Mountain View, Willow Springs, Summersville, 
  Raymondville, Pomona, South Fork, White Church, Clear Springs, 
  Peace Valley, Siloam Springs, Arroll, Pottersville, Elk Creek, 
  Solo, Pine Crest, Eunice, Yukon, Caulfield, Moody, Hartshorn and 
  Ozark National Scenic Riverways.

This includes the following low water crossings...
  South Fork Jacks Fork River at Stillhouse Road, North Prong Jacks 
  Fork at Arroll Road, North Fork River at County Road 278, Bennetts 
  River at Highway 142, South Prong Jacks Fork River at Highway U, 
  Eleven Point River at County Road 1550 and Gill Branch at Highway 
  Y.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Many flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 9165 3689 9166 3650 9186 3651 9211
      3680 9211 3680 9240 3742 9176

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

EW

845 
WGUS53 KSGF 041604 RRA
FFWSGF
MOC067-091-215-041930-
/O.EXT.KSGF.FF.W.0095.000000T0000Z-241104T1930Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1004 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

The National Weather Service in Springfield has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Howell County in south central Missouri...
  Southeastern Texas County in south central Missouri...
  Eastern Douglas County in southwestern Missouri...

* Until 130 PM CST.

* At 1004 AM CST, Local law enforcement reported thunderstorms 
  producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 6 
  inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  West Plains, Mountain View, Willow Springs, Summersville, 
  Raymondville, Pomona, South Fork, White Church, Clear Springs, 
  Peace Valley, Siloam Springs, Arroll, Pottersville, Elk Creek, 
  Solo, Pine Crest, Eunice, Yukon, Caulfield, Moody, Hartshorn and 
  Ozark National Scenic Riverways.

This includes the following low water crossings...
  Eleven Point River at County Road 1550, South Prong Jacks Fork 
  River at Highway U, Bennetts River at Highway 142, North Prong 
  Jacks Fork at Arroll Road, North Fork River at County Road 278, 
  South Fork Jacks Fork River at Stillhouse Road and Gill Branch at 
  Highway Y.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Many flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 9165 3689 9166 3650 9186 3651 9211
      3680 9211 3680 9240 3742 9176

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

SLM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1203 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through Tuesday. Confidence is high in several inches of rain,
  with widespread totals of at least 2-5" by the end of the
  event, with localized amounts up to 6-9" confined to narrow
  corridors. The heaviest rainfall axis is currently located
  along and south of a Branson to Salem line.

- There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) Excessive Rainfall Risk on
  through Monday. A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of SE
  KS and portions of far S MO from 6pm Sunday through 6am
  Tuesday due to multiple rounds of rainfall.

- Sunday Night Severe Outlook: Slight severe risk (level 2 of 5)
  for Springfield and points southwest tonight as thunderstorms
  move out of Oklahoma and Arkansas. Damaging winds up to 60mph
  and a line embedded tornado are the main threats.

- Monday Afternoon/Evening Severe Outlook: Enhanced (level 3 of
  5) Risk for the far SW corner of Missouri and a Slight (level
  2 of 5) Risk for most of the rest of the Missouri Ozarks.
  Damaging winds would be the primary threat with the line of
  storms, though there will also be the potential for a few
  embedded tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: A highly amplified
shortwave trough was located across the Rockies with deep
southwest flow aloft across the region. Low level moisture
continues to stream into the area with the 12z KSGF sounding
measuring 1.35in of PW which is near the max for early November.
A low level front has lifted north of the area earlier this
morning with low 60 dewpoints common across the area. This front
then stretches west into low pressure across western Nebraska. A
dryline was located across west Texas. A batch of showers and
thunderstorms moved into the area this morning however it
continues to move east, affecting areas along and east of
Highway 65. Cloud cover was thick across the area which has
kept temps down into the low 60s. This is keeping the
instability to a minimum with the latest RAP showing less than
250j/kg of ML and MU CAPE.

This afternoon and evening: Additional energy is moving into
western Oklahoma and has already initiated showers and
thunderstorms across Oklahoma in a more unstable environment
(ML CAPE over 1000j/kg). This activity will likely begin to
enter southwest Missouri during the 4-8pm timeframe. The lack
of instability should keep these storms subsevere with just a
few lightning strikes and moderate rainfall rates.

Overnight: As we head into the late evening and overnight hours
there are indications that instability could increase slightly
as the low level jet intensifies again. The highest chances of
seeing this instability increase will be to the southwest of
Springfield (Joplin/Pineville). However the latest 12z HREF
does not increase much instability overnight. This has
implications on our severe and rainfall threats overnight. A
corridor of severe storms looks to develop across central and
eastern Oklahoma this evening and then push northeast into
western Arkansas. These storms will attempt to then move
northeast into southwest Missouri. 0-6km shear of 40-50kts is
plenty for organized storms however the instability seems to be
the limiting factor for a more widespread severe event. However
we will be monitoring the instability levels, especially on our
00z sounding this evening. If storms can maintain severity into
the area then damaging winds up to 60mph and a tornado will be
the primary concerns. Highest severe chances are southwest of
our area.

The other concern for the overnight hours is the potential for
training thunderstorms given the extremely high moisture content
and continued low level jet feeding convection. Latest 12z
guidance suggests that this corridor could set up just to the
southeast of I-44. This does follow the southward qpf trend
over the last 12-18 hours. Where this corridor sets up will
experience rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour. The latest
HREF (LPMM) guidance shows potential for 2-5 inches of rainfall
in this corridor with the overnight round of rainfall with a
50-70% chance of 4 inches or more along and south of a
Gainesville to Salem line. However since this is a convective
rainfall event, any deviation north or south with the storms could
have serious implications on these amounts. The current Flood
Watch remains in effect and no changes planned for the area or
time.

Monday through Monday Night: The upper trough will continue
pushing east during the day and while there will be morning
rain, we do think that there will be some periods of dry time
during the day. This will have big implications on instability.
Surface low pressure will continue to develop across Oklahoma
and move into southeast Kansas by the afternoon with the dryline
along with it. Of concern is the latest HREF guidance
indicating 1000j/kg of CAPE developing across the area during
the afternoon and evening. This would occur if we could get some
dry time/peaks of sunshine otherwise CAMS could be too
aggressive with instability. By late afternoon and evening
guidance breaks out scattered to numerous showers and storms
along the front from eastern Kansas into eastern Oklahoma.
Forecast soundings show strong wind fields aloft with 0-6km
shear around 60kts and 0-3km shear of 50kts. Therefore
instability will be critical to the severity of thunderstorms.
If instability is high enough (ML CAPE 500-1000j/kg) then line
segments will develop with damaging winds up to 60mph and QLCS
tornadoes. We will need to monitor this threat closely with the
enhanced risk just southwest of Springfield. This would likely
be during the mid evening and overnight hours as the line sweeps
through the area.

Additional rainfall with this round looks to be in the 1-2 inch
range. When combined with previous rainfall, LPMM data suggests
a widespread 2-5 inch storm total with a corridor of 6-9 inches
of rainfall. While many areas are in drought, drought conditions
are not as severe in the eastern CWA. This is also the most
flood prone area of our CWA therefore we will need to closely
monitor river and creek levels. Latest HEFS guidance indicates
potential for several creeks and rivers to rise into Action and
or Minor flood stage however this will be highly dependent on
that heavy rainfall axis. A few river Flood Watches have been
issued already.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

The trough will be pushing through the area during the day
therefore expecting a decrease in clouds/rain during the day.
Ensembles suggest that the southwest flow pattern will not go
away with a quick return by Wednesday as another disturbance
moves into the Rockies. Ensembles begin to diverge by Thursday
as the guidance is split on the trough closing off and slowing
down or ejecting faster east. Currently the majority of guidance
is much slower therefore rain chances are currently low for
Wednesday and Thursday (10-30%) and then increasing Friday into
Saturday (30-50%). The speed of this trough will greatly affect
precip chances late next week. Temps look to remain around
average (highs in the 60s).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

The TAF period will consist of multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms of varying intensities moving into the region from
the southwest, with some storms developing in/around the
terminals (especially JLN) on Monday afternoon. South-
southeasaterly winds persist, sustained around 10-15kts with
occasional gusts up to 25-30kts tied to storms in the area.
Low-level jet continues pushing northward around the terrain,
strengthening to 50kts+ on Monday afternoon and increasing low-
level wind shear concerns. Heavy rain (rainfall rates 1-2"/hr)
within storms will significantly decrease visibilities to
IFR/LIFR at times.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 3:
KSGF: 63/1994

November 4:
KSGF: 59/1994

Record Precipitation:

November 3:
KJLN: 2.05/1974

November 4:
KSGF: 2.32/1994
KJLN: 2.16/1994
KVIH: 1.91/1994
KUNO: 2.20/1994

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through late Monday night for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through late Monday night for MOZ066-077-078-082-
     083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
745 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
745 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms across Oklahoma will move into the area
overnight. The area of concern for strong to marginally severe
storms has shifted southward to along the Missouri/Arkansas
border. If enough instability develops then storms could be
severe with damaging winds up to 60 mph and a tornado embedded
within a line.

Heavy rainfall rates could lead to flooding overnight where storms
move over the same areas. Currently areas southeast of Interstate
44 have the highest chances of excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Storms will likely redevelop Monday afternoon and evening, with a
risk for severe storms if instability increases, especially in
the far southwest corner of Missouri. The primary hazards with
this severe activity would be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and
a few tornadoes embedded within the squall line. Additional
locally heavy rainfall will occur with this activity, with the
highest flood risk being in the eastern Ozarks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
213 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

MOZ097-105-040900-
Ozark MO-Howell MO-
213 AM CST Mon Nov 4 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OZARK AND SOUTHERN
HOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 300 AM CST...

At 213 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Gainesville to 8 miles north of Fawn Park to
Ozark Regional Airport. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
West Plains, Norfork Lake, Gainesville, Bakersfield, South Fork,
Brandsville, Tecumseh, Pottersville, Caulfield, Udall, Hardenville,
Siloam Springs, White Church, Moody, and Peace Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9252 3657 9252 3679 9210 3689 9166
      3679 9166 3679 9168 3655 9167 3650 9192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0813Z 231DEG 46KT 3660 9240 3652 9234 3637 9244

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise