Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Springfield, MO

193 
WGUS73 KSGF 041441
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
941 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

MOC015-131-141-041451-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-240704T1445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Benton MO-Miller MO-Morgan MO-
941 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 945 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR 
CENTRAL BENTON, NORTHERN MILLER AND SOUTHERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

Flood waters have receded. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT Friday for portions 
of southeast Kansas and Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9351 3844 9310 3844 9264 3843 9240
      3834 9241 3834 9229 3832 9225 3834 9219
      3829 9220 3831 9269 3823 9352

$$

GH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
323 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for far southern Missouri
  today where afternoon Heat Index values range from 105-109
  degrees.

- There is a Slight risk (2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  across much of the area late this afternoon into the evening
  hours. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard.

- Storms today will produce efficient rainfall rates, producing
  a risk of localized flooding and flash flooding.

- Cooler conditions return Friday into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT
Thu Jul 4 2024

Morning Storms:
Mosaic radar imagery shows a line of storms across eastern
Kansas barreling into Missouri early this morning. These storms
have produced wind gusts of 70-80 mph. Scattered convection out
ahead of the line has remained sub- severe and eaten up some of
the instability. Forward propagating vectors and 0-3 km bulk
shear vectors suggest this line should continue to track east
along the instability gradient into the early morning hours, and
continuing to weaken as it does so. Highest storm chances this
morning are along and north of I-44. Gusty winds up to 50 mph
will be the primary hazard has they enter our CWA.

Precipitable water values northward of 2" and a very moist
airmass will allow for very efficient rainfall rates under any
storms. However, recent guidance has shifted the heaviest
precipitation axis slightly north from previous indications.
Specifically, the 00Z HREF LPMM depicts a pockets of 4-6 inches
of rainfall somewhere between the Highway 54 and I-70 corridor.
The Flood Watch has been maintained given the potential for
training thunderstorms.

Afternoon/Evening Heat and Storms:
Earlier convection will shift east out of the forecast area in
the morning. Beyond that, hi-res guidance even suggests partial
clearing during the late morning and early afternoon hours,
particularly across far southern Missouri near the Arkansas
border. Therefore, temperatures were nudged closer to the NBM
75th percentile, maxing out in the mid 90s with afternoon Heat
Index Values in the 105-109 range. A Heat Advisory has been
issued for these areas from 12-9 PM today.

Clearing and surface heating will contribute to steep low-level
lapse rates and increased destabilization across southern
Missouri throughout the afternoon. As an upper-level trough over
the northern Plains gradually shifts east, a southwest to
northeast oriented surface boundary will set up over the area.
CAMs depict convective initiation across Oklahoma by mid-
afternoon shifting east into southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri by early evening. Southwest mean flow relative to the
boundary would support a cluster storm mode with embedded
smaller line segments. Severe wind gusts appear to be the
primary hazard, with hail to the size of quarters also possible
given the robust updrafts. The tornado threat appears low given
modest and veering 850 mb winds and would likely be limited to
boundary/outflow interactions. This activity appears diurnally
driven, and the severe threat likely winds down after 10 PM. The
Storm Prediction Center has maintained a Slight risk for severe
weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT
Thu Jul 4 2024

Cooler temperatures will return Friday into next week with NBM
percentile data supporting highs in the 80s each day.

Our next-best rain chances arrive Sunday into Monday as
additional upper-level energy digs through the Plains. There are
some indications of MCS development across the northern Plains,
and this activity may track into southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri, however, confidence in any details remains low this
far out. Precipitation chances range from 40-60%.

Ensembles develop deep upper-level ridging across the western
U.S. early next week. Precipitation chances remain low
(generally 25% or less) through much of the work week given the
lack of any strong forcing signal at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will likely remain north of the TAF
sites through much if not all of the night. There is a low
chance that storms currently across Kansas shift far enough
south to impact the JLN and SGF site around 12Z, however
confidence in this occurring is low.

Additional thunderstorm development is likely along a cold front
by late afternoon and evening today. Current thinking is that
storms move east and south of the TAF sites around 06Z.
Southwest winds will shift to the northwest with the passage of
the front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Record High Temperatures:

July 3:
KSGF: 98/2011
KJLN: 100/2011

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 3:
KSGF: 77/2018

July 4:
KSGF: 78/1901

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097.
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>081-083-089.

&&

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Didio
CLIMATE...Nelson

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
945 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050245-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
945 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Marginal hail risk.
  Marginal thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue south of Interstate 44
through late evening. Most of these storms will not be severe with
small hail, gusty winds and lightning the main threats.

After midnight, additional storms will develop across Kansas and
move into areas north of Interstate 44. These storms could be
severe with damaging winds up to 60 mph and frequent lightning.
Heavy rainfall rates may lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The heat and humidity will linger through Thursday with some
areas again getting heat index values in the 100 to 110 degree
range. Highest heat index values are expected south of Interstate
44.

Some lingering thunderstorms will be possible Thursday morning,
but redevelopment is expected later in the day and into Thursday
night. Some storms may be strong to severe with large hail and
damaging straight line winds. Heavy rain and localized flooding
will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
955 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     Hail             Cape Fair               36.73N 93.51W
07/03/2024  E3.00 Inch       Stone              MO   Public

            Several pictures and reports of baseball to
            three inch hail in Cape Fair.

&&

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
217 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

MOZ055-040800-
Benton MO-
217 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BENTON COUNTY THROUGH 300 AM
CDT...

At 216 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Warsaw, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Truman State Park, Truman Lake, Warsaw, Edmonson, Lakeview Heights,
Crockerville, Hastain, Zora, and Whitakerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 9307 3819 9308 3819 9306 3818 9306
      3817 9307 3817 9337 3832 9346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0716Z 254DEG 20KT 3826 9334

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise