Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
639 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms through tonight.
  There is a Slight Risk (2 out of 4) of flash flooding with
  localized rainfall amounts up to 3-4".

- Warm and muggy summer-like pattern Sunday into midweek with
  daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

MCV is currently on the border of SE KS and SW MO and will slowly
continue pushing northeast. Right now, no imminent threat for
flooding is occurring. Though, nuisance flooding could occur
especially near the center of the MCV over in SW MO.
Temperatures across the area have stayed upper 60s to lower 70s
with overcast skies. Tonight, as rain continues to push east,
there is a 20-40% chance of visibilities lower than 3 SM
according to the SREF. Therefore, patchy fog could form in areas
where cloud cover can disperse the quickest (SW MO), thought
confidence is still low at this time. Low temperatures will be
in the lower 60s tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The long term forecast will continue to feature intermittent rain
chances through the start of next week thanks to a series of mid-
level shortwaves that move through the area. Though, no all day
washouts are expected. As mentioned previously, hot and humid
temperatures are on the way for the start of June with highs in
the mid 80s and dewpoints in the lower 70s. With a moist
airmass in place, pop up thunderstorms will be possible each
day. Model PWAT values of 1.5 to 1.7 inches will be in place
next week which would be just above the 90th percentile for our
area during this time of the year. It'll definitely start to get
that summer feel here in southern Missouri.

As far as how much rain will fall, LPMM for Saturday into Monday has
the bulk of the rain falling over southeastern MO with amounts
topping out near 1 to 2 inches. Southwestern MO has much lower QPF
amounts of less than 0.5 of an inch through the weekend.

Saturday-Sunday: Saturday will end up being a nice day once the
clouds/lingering rain showers clear out. Highs will reach the
lower 80s by the afternoon with mostly clear skies expected.
Saturday night we will see a break in the rain with lows in the
lower 60s. A shortwave moves through northern MO on Sunday and
will bring our next round of showers and thunderstorms. Right
now, not expecting any severe weather to occur, but there could
be a few rumbles of thunder throughout the day. Best chances for
rain will be in the afternoon with a 20-30% west of HWY 65.

Per the previous discussion, CIPS/CSU analogs do have a signal for
potential severe weather to occur over the area Monday/Tuesday. This
most likely is associated with a cold front that will move through
overnight Monday into Tuesday. Still too early to determine exact
hazards and locations that will be affected, more updates to come
later in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Rain will continue to push east of the TAF sites this evening.
IFR ceilings are expected to return tonight, with fog possible
at KBBG and especially KJLN. Improving conditions will then be
noted through the day Saturday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
400 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-012100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
400 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are moving through the
area tonight. Locally heavy rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches may
pose a risk for flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A showers and thunderstorms may linger across portions of the
eastern Ozarks on Saturday.

Daily thunderstorm chances continue Sunday into the middle of
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Soria