Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Springfield, MO

652 
WGUS73 KSGF 022308
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
608 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

MOC015-085-141-022318-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-240502T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Benton MO-Hickory MO-Morgan MO-
608 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR 
EASTERN BENTON, NORTHERN HICKORY AND WESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3853 9307 3861 9306 3858 9282 3856 9279
      3823 9301 3827 9305 3826 9308 3819 9308
      3819 9306 3815 9306 3791 9322 3798 9348
      3853 9312

$$

JD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
207 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand over the
  area this afternoon and shift east across the forecast area
  into this evening.

- The stronger storms will be capable of hail to the size of
  quarters and up to 60 mph winds...with heavy rain.

- Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day
  forecast with the next round of showers and thunderstorms late
  Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis
and water vapor imagery show an upper level low pressure system
located along the Montana / Saskatchewan border with an
associated trough axis becoming negatively tilted over the
northern plains. Broad southwesterly flow aloft was occurring on
the southern side of this trough from the southwest U.S. into
the CWA. A mesoscale convective vort(MCV) was lifting northeast
into the CWA out of northeast Oklahoma, while a surface front
was located over eastern Kansas shifting eastward. Surface based
CAPE values have risen into the 1000-2000 j/kg range and with
the front and MCV moving into the area, convection over the past
hour has increased in intensity and coverage, generally west of
U.S. 65.

This afternoon and tonight: Thunderstorm coverage will continue
to increase ahead of the surface front. The front will be slow
to push eastward through the area with the front nearly parallel
with the upper level flow. The MCV will continue to lift
northeast into the southwest corner of Missouri as well.
Thunderstorm coverage will gradually shift east across the area
through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours.
Some of the stronger storms will have the potential of some
small hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph in
addition to heavy rainfall. We are seeing some rotation in the
storms in the southwest corner of MO with the circulation around
the MCV and have had a confirmed small tornado already reported.
Soe we can't rule out an isolated small tornado or two. Some
localized rainfall totals of an inch to inch and a half will be
possible in regions where multiple storms move across the same
locations, otherwise we are looking at a broad area of a quarter
to half inch of rain. The rain should end from west to east
later tonight with the front pushing to the east of the area.

Friday: This looks like the pick day of the 7 day forecast if
you are looking for generally dry conditions. Outside of a
lingering shower in the morning, it should generally be dry with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Friday night - Saturday: An upper level wave will track
northeast out of the northern plains and into the upper
Mississippi valley on Friday night. A surface front will begin
to track east into the western portion of the CWA and we should
see showers and thunderstorms start to push into the area.
Rainfall will become more widespread over the area during the
day on Saturday.

Sunday: Another shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow
aloft will bring additional shower and thunderstorm activity to
the area on Sunday. The better instability looks to be south of
the area and we are not expecting any severe storms with this
activity at this time.

Monday - Tuesday: A deeper trough with a strong upper jet will
begin to shift into the the plains on Monday and begin to lift
negatively tilted on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will
have better dynamics and instability for the potential of some
severe storms which the Colorado State, CIPS and SPC are already
supporting in their day 5-6 outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For the 18z TAFS, scattered light showers were expanding over
the southwest quadrant of MO in advance of a remnant MCV. Some
stronger convection was beginning to develop along the frontal
boundary over southeast Kansas. Convection should continue to
increase over western MO and southeast Kansas early this
afternoon with the slow approach of the cold front to the east
and the MCV to the northeast. Most of the convection will occur
from the onset of the 18z TAFS through around 03-04z. Expect to
see some MVFR within the areas of convection and some IFR with
the stronger storms. Behind the front, some scattered showers
will remain possible, but we should become predominantly IFR
through the remainder of the night, with improving conditions on
Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
232 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-031945-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
232 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

  Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this
  afternoon and evening as an upper level disturbance lifts
  northeast into the southwest portion of Missouri and a cold
  front shifts east into the area out of Kansas. The stronger
  storms will be capable of hail to the size quarters, damaging
  wind gusts up to 60 mph and an isolated tornado.

  In addition to the strong to severe weather risk, heavy rain
  and localized flooding will be possible where storms can move
  across the same locations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

  Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms exist this
  weekend, both Saturday and again on Sunday.

  A stronger storm system looks to approach the region by Monday
  or Tuesday of next week with additional thunderstorm chances,
  some of which may be strong to severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed over far western Missouri with
  the stronger afternoon storms.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1259 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

MOZ067-068-078-079-021830-
Cedar MO-Polk MO-Hickory MO-St. Clair MO-
1259 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN HICKORY...NORTHEASTERN
CEDAR...NORTHWESTERN POLK AND EASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH 130
PM CDT...

At 1259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles northwest of Humansville, or 12 miles northeast
of Stockton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pomme de Terre Lake, Truman Lake, Humansville, Osceola, Weaubleau,
Wheatland, Collins, Flemington, Vista, Gerster, Quincy, Caplinger
Mills, Elkton, Harper, Iconium, and Arnica.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3813 9350 3808 9350 3806 9331 3773 9342
      3770 9370 3777 9386 3816 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 215DEG 17KT 3786 9369

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Melto

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
136 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

MOZ055-056-067>069-021900-
Camden MO-Benton MO-Hickory MO-Morgan MO-St. Clair MO-
136 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HICKORY...BENTON...EAST
CENTRAL ST. CLAIR...NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN AND SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 136 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Warsaw, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Truman State Park, Truman Lake, Warsaw, Lincoln, Hermitage,
Wheatland, Preston, Cross Timbers, Quincy, Lakeview Heights, Harper,
Zora, Fristoe, Knobby, Edmonson, Edwards, Hastain, and Whitakerville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 9320 3796 9358 3842 9344 3838 9284
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 208DEG 21KT 3812 9327

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Didio

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
201 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     Tornado          Carl Junction           37.18N 94.57W
05/02/2024                   Jasper             MO   Emergency Mngr

            Suspected tornado downed trees and caused
            minor structural damage to homes northwest
            of the Joplin airport around Carl Junction.

&&

SR