Tornado Warning 6, NWS Blacksburg, VA

657 
WWUS51 KRNK 112257
SVSRNK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
657 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

NCC193-112315-
/O.CON.KRNK.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-240411T2315Z/
Wilkes NC-
657 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR 
NORTHEASTERN WILKES COUNTY...

At 657 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Hays, or near North Wilkesboro, moving northeast at
30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Traphill...
Hays...
Mulberry...
Stone Mountain State Park...
Wilkes County Airport...
Abshers...
and Doughton Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3622 8123 3640 8119 3643 8117 3642 8113
      3643 8111 3643 8109 3642 8107 3641 8104
      3637 8103 3637 8099 3640 8096 3637 8093
      3637 8092 3618 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 203DEG 24KT 3624 8112 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

BMG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
221 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex low pressure system over the eastern United States
will produce showers and thunderstorms as a cold front pushes
off the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday morning. Gusty wind and
colder temperatures will follow this system for Friday into
Saturday with some showers in the mountains. Mainly dry and
warmer weather is on tap for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

   1. Continued chance for severe storms, locally heavy rain,
      and gusty wind

   2. Wind Advisory remains in effect for Western Greenbrier

   3. Wind advisory may be expanded into the southern Blue
      Ridge for tonight

Not seeing much erosion of the stratus in satellite imagery over
Virginia, but ans area of clearing over Georgia and South
Carolina was advancing north. HRRR and HREF showed the time
range from 20Z/4PM through 03Z/11PM. The convective allowing
models show the potential for discrete supercells developing in
the foothills of North Carolina and tracking into central and
eastern Virginia and North Carolina.

The 12Z RNK sounding had about 300 J/kg of Convective Available
Potential Energy. But limited cooling at mid level is expected
and for now stratus and rain are hampering warming at low
levels so available instability may limit coverage of
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Cold air aloft arrives on Friday. Bufkit forecast soundings
showed large lapse rates and much of the elevated CAPE above
the freezing level. Have maintained thunder during the daytime.

Low level jet shows a maximum just behind in the front in the
50 to 60 knot range out of the west. This brings wind gusts in
the higher elevations of the southern Blue Ridge. Gusty wind
continues through Friday. This also supported by strong cold air
air advection and healthy pressure rises. Daytime mixing Friday will
also produce another surge in wind.

Temperatures will hold in the 50s and 60s until the cold front
passes through in the late evening. 850MB temperatures drop to
near zero be Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for gusty winds persisting into Saturday
before fading by Saturday night.

2) A low chance of showers and thunderstorms returns by late
Sunday for southeast West Virginia.

Gusty winds will continue into Friday night and Saturday due to
a strong pressure gradient between low pressure deepening in
eastern Canada and high pressure in the lower Mississippi River
Valley. There may be gusts approaching advisory criteria along
the southern Blue Ridge. The wet soil from recent rainfall could
allow a few trees and power lines to be blown down more easily.
Upslope rain showers will gradually fade from Boone to
Lewisburg by Saturday morning, and there may be snow flurries
along the higher elevations of western Greenbrier County before
the moisture completely dissipates. High pressure should provide
lighter winds and drier weather for the remainder of Saturday
and through Saturday night.

An upper level ridge will build eastward from the southern
Plains to the Gulf Coast on Sunday. As high pressure drifts
offshore, the flow should turn towards the southwest. The rising
heights aloft and the increasing warm air advection should
boost temperatures notably above normal with widespread highs in
the 70s by Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary
will dive southeastward from the Great Lakes, but the building
upper level ridge will halt any further progress southward from
Pennsylvania. Some showers and thunderstorms may spill into
central West Virginia by Saturday evening, so a low chance of
rain exists for the Interstate 64 corridor. Elsewhere, dry
weather is expected for Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures
will stay elevated during Sunday night with lows only falling
into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1206 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Mainly Dry With Well Above Normal Temperatures

Forecast models agree in a building a ridge and 8h temps across
our area next week. Warm front close to the area Monday allows
for a few showers/storms but in general frontal systems will be
to our northwest through the period with limited chances for
showers or storms. Going to be more like early summer at times
with high temperatures in the 80s by midweek.

Highs and lows will be running 10-20 degrees above normal.

Forecast confidence is high on warmer pattern and moderate on
rain chances which will be mainly confined to the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Thursday...

Not seeing much erosion of the stratus in satellite imagery over
Virginia, but ans area of clearing over Georgia and South
Carolina was advancing north. HRRR and HREF showed the time
range from 20Z/4PM through 03Z/11PM. The convective allowing
models show the potential for discrete supercells developing in
the foothills of North Carolina and tracking into central and
eastern Virginia and North Carolina.

The 12Z RNK sounding had about 300 J/kg of Convective Available
Potential Energy. But limited cooling at mid level is expected
and for now IFR stratus and MVFR rain are hampering warming at
low levels so available instability may limit coverage of
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Ceilings will rise to
VFR east of the Blue Ridge with the west wind behind the front.

Cold air aloft arrives on Friday. Bufkit forecast soundings
showed large lapse rates and much of the elevated CAPE above
the freezing level. Have maintained thunder during the daytime.
Some of the showers and thunderstorms will spread east into the
piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina during the afternoon.

Low level jet shows a maximum just behind in the front in the
50 to 60 knot range out of the west. This brings wind gusts in
the higher elevations of the southern Blue Ridge. Gusty wind
continues through Friday. This also supported by strong cold air
air advection and healthy pressure rises. Daytime mixing Friday will
also produce another surge in wind.

Temperatures will hold in the 50s and 60s until the cold front
passes through in the late evening. 850MB temperatures drop to
near zero be Friday morning.

Forecast confidence is average.

OUTLOOK FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday night and Saturday, expect gusty northwest wind on the
west side of the exiting system with scattered to numerous upslope
showers and isolated thunderstorms for the mountains. Most
areas will trend to VFR east of the Blue Ridge.

By Sunday, VFR conditions are expected for all locations along
with weakening winds.

By Monday, a weak system may bring a return of some showers and
patchy sub-VFR conditions to Southeast West Virginia. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions are expected.

Confidence in the above extended aviation scenario is moderate.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/AB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
334 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ007-010-011-043>047-058-059-WVZ042>044-507-121945-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Tazewell-Bland-Giles-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-
334 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The primary risk is damaging wind and isolated
tornadoes. In addition, locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

WVZ508-121945-
Western Greenbrier-
334 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

There is a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The primary risk is damaging wind and isolated
tornadoes. In addition, locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Strong, gusty winds will continue into Saturday this afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ009-012>020-022>024-032>035-121945-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Smyth-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
334 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

There is a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The primary risk is damaging wind and isolated
tornadoes. In addition, locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Strong, gusty winds will continue into Saturday this afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
603 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

NCZ001-002-018-019-VAZ009-015-112230-
Ashe NC-Wilkes NC-Watauga NC-Alleghany NC-Grayson VA-Smyth VA-
603 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
WESTERN ALLEGHANY...NORTHWESTERN WILKES...WATAUGA AND ASHE COUNTIES
IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CENTRAL SMYTH AND SOUTHWESTERN
GRAYSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 602 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wagoner to Fleetwood to Lovill. Movement
was north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Boone...
Sparta...
Jefferson...
West Jefferson...
Blowing Rock...
Independence...
and Lansing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3635 8181 3636 8180 3634 8177 3634 8171
      3641 8174 3647 8170 3653 8171 3659 8168
      3662 8161 3664 8161 3667 8164 3670 8161
      3668 8118 3652 8110 3609 8145 3610 8151
      3612 8155 3611 8181 3616 8183 3619 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 194DEG 21KT 3642 8136 3630 8149 3624 8170

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BMG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
613 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

NCZ019-112245-
Wilkes NC-
613 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN WILKES COUNTY THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 613 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Taylorsville, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
North Wilkesboro...
Wilkesboro...
Boomer...
Mulberry...
Buck...
Millers Creek...
and Fairplains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 8124 3618 8093 3603 8106 3603 8110
      3604 8111 3604 8114 3603 8117 3603 8118
      3604 8120 3603 8124 3603 8127 3601 8130
      3601 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 201DEG 21KT 3599 8121

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BMG