Alert archive / North Carolina / Special Weather Statements in 2024
Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA
NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this special weather statement at Jul 19, 2024, 8:33 PM EDT for Wilkes County, North Carolina. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 19, 2024, 8:33 PM EDT (00:33 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 19, 2024, 9:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 42 min
- Issued by
- NWS Blacksburg, VA
- Hail
- 0.00 in
- Wind
- 40
County Wilkes County, NC
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 789 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -16 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 819 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 18 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -60 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -42 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 19, 6:21 PM EDT, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 6:21 PM EDT, 2 hours 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
621 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front over North Carolinas returns north tonight and
Saturday. The weather pattern stays active through the beginning
of next week with periods of showers and thunderstorms and
gradually warming temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 615 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Rain chances increase overnight, becoming more widespread
after daybreak. Some thunder expected.
2) Main concern is localized flooding.
Most of the activity associated with a surface front was located
to our south, although a few showers had developed across the
Piedmont and the southern Blue Ridge. No lightning was noted
this far north, but stronger convection was shifting north out
of the Carolinas ahead of strong short wave energy aloft. CAMs
are still showing scattered to numerous showers and isolated
storms developing mainly after midnight into Saturday morning.
Main concern still seems to be heavy rain leading to urban and
small stream flooding, and possibly some localized flash
flooding, based on PWATs over 2" and deep warm cloud layers.
Made small changes to the forecast but overall looks on track.
As of 215 PM EDT Friday...
Key Messages:
1) Confidence is high for showers and thunderstorms.
2) Localize heavy rainfall possible.
A stalled boundary will begin to move northward tonight as a
shortwave tracks over the southern Appalachian mountains. This
wave will move over the forecast area overnight into Saturday.
Rainfall amounts will average around a half inch areawide, but
could see a few efficient storms drop 1-2 inches of rain in the
vicinity of the NC/VA border. In the latest model runs,
instabilities are not as high as they were with yesterday,
therefore the severe threat is very low.
High temperatures today will peak from the upper 70s to mid 80s
With rain and thick cloud cover over the area for most of
Saturday, temperatures will be 3F-5F cooler than today. Saturday
high temperatures will vary from the 70s across the mountains
to lower 80s in the foothills and piedmont.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM EDT Friday...
Key messages:
- Little change in the weather pattern
Stagnant upper air pattern through the period with a long wave
positively tilted trough over the eastern United States. This
keeps the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas in deep southwest flow and
abundant moisture. Precipitable water values will waver between
1.0 and 2.0 inches, generally as much as two standard deviations
above normal. Integrated water vapor transport and synoptic
scale models do not add any detail during this type of pattern.
Confidence is high that there will be a daily probability of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening,
as is typical. But no particular surface boundaries or guidance
to narrow down to a more precise timing and location. While the
potential for showers and thunderstorms covers much of the
mountains, southern Virginia and northern North Carolina, the
southern Blue Ridge will be the most likely location for storm
development.
What storms do form will have a good potential to produce very
heavy rainfall rates, therefore there is a prolonged low risk of
flooding.
AS for as temperatures, highs will be near normal and lows will
be through the period will be just above normal, mainly due to
the low level moisture/mild surface dew points.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Friday...
Key messages:
- Chance for thunderstorms every day
Similar to the shorter range of the forecast, little to no
change the weather pattern is expected through Friday. Models do
hint at slightly higher 500 MB heights by the end of the week.
So, temperatures may warm gradually Wednesday through Friday. As
the daily threat for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
continues, so does the potential for locally heavy rain and
isolated flooding.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 615 PM EDT Friday...
A mid-level disturbance will track from the the southern
Appalachian today to the forecast area Saturday morning. This
disturbance will push a boundary northward, increasing the
chance for showers and a few thunderstorms overnight into early
Saturday afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions are likely to bounce
around due to localized heavy rain, low clouds and fog. Flight
restrictions should begin to improve Saturday afternoon.
AVIATION OUTLOOK...
An upper level trough over the Mississippi Valley and an upper
level ridge in the western Atlantic will keep an active weather
pattern through the beginning of next week with periods of MVFR
showers and thunderstorms.
Late night fog and stratus with result in IFR to MVFR
visibility, otherwise VFR.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/SH
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...RCS/SHHazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 2:35 PM EDT, 5 hours 58 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 NCZ004>006-020-VAZ044-058-059-201000- Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Yadkin-Pittsylvania-Halifax-Charlotte- 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina and south central Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall today and tonight. Heavy rain from thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday. The primary threat is damaging wind. There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall through Wednesday. Heavy rain from thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043-045>047- WVZ042>044-507-508-201000- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles- Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA- Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst- Henry-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Mercer-Summers-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 235 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall today and tonight. Heavy rain from thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall through Wednesday. Heavy rain from thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 19, 8:33 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
833 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024
NCZ019-200115-
Wilkes NC-
833 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN WILKES COUNTY THROUGH 915 PM EDT...
At 833 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wilkes County Airport, or near North Wilkesboro. This thunderstorm
was nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
North Wilkesboro...
Wilkesboro...
Ronda...
Traphill...
Hays...
Mulberry...
and Cricket.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.
&&
LAT...LON 3612 8116 3625 8128 3639 8106 3622 8093
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 235DEG 4KT 3623 8112
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SHThe office that day
Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 9:57 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Patrick | 33 min |
| Jul 19, 11:24 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Carroll, Patrick | 3 hr |
| Jul 19, 11:33 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RNK | Carroll, Patrick | 4 hr |
| Jul 20, 9:16 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Patrick | 3 hr |
| Jul 20, 9:42 AM EDT | Flood Watch | RNK | Charlotte, Franklin, Halifax, Henry, Patrick, Pittsylvania and 2 more | 10 hr |
| Jul 20, 10:04 AM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | RNK | Henry, City of Martinsville | 3 hr |
| Jul 20, 11:17 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Pittsylvania, City of Danville | 28 min |
| Jul 20, 11:29 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Franklin | 31 min |
| Jul 20, 11:53 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | City of Danville | 37 min |
| Jul 20, 12:31 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Halifax | 44 min |
| Jul 20, 1:51 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Grayson | 3 hr |
| Jul 19, 8:39 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Wilkes | 3 hr |
| Jul 19, 10:30 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Ashe, Watauga, Wilkes | 3 hr |
| Jul 20, 6:59 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Surry | 5 hr |
| Jul 20, 8:14 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Stokes, Surry | 3 hr |
| Jul 20, 1:42 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Alleghany | 48 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in North Carolina, 2024Every special weather statement in 2024
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.