Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
741 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex low pressure system over the eastern United States
will produce showers and thunderstorms as a cold front pushes
off the Mid Atlantic coast by Friday morning. Gusty wind and
colder temperatures will follow this system for Friday into
Saturday with some showers in the mountains. Mainly dry and
warmer weather is on tap for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 725 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

 1. Tornado Watch until 11pm for portions of NW NC into southern
VA. Chance for severe storms with isolated tornadoes, locally
heavy rain, and gusty wind.

2. Wind Advisory remains in effect for Western Greenbrier

3. Wind advisory may be expanded into the southern Blue Ridge
for tonight

Low level environment favors spinning with 0-1km SRH 200-350.
Per coordination with SPC have a Tornado Watch for southern VA
into NW NC til 11pm. Once sun sets, instability will weaken but
shear remains high into the evening ahead of the front over the
piedmont, so will need to heed warnings. Have already had a
confirmed tornado in Wilkes County.

Previous discussion...

Not seeing much erosion of the stratus in satellite imagery over
Virginia, but ans area of clearing over Georgia and South
Carolina was advancing north. HRRR and HREF showed the time
range from 20Z/4PM through 03Z/11PM. The convective allowing
models show the potential for discrete supercells developing in
the foothills of North Carolina and tracking into central and
eastern Virginia and North Carolina.

The 12Z RNK sounding had about 300 J/kg of Convective Available
Potential Energy. But limited cooling at mid level is expected
and for now stratus and rain are hampering warming at low
levels so available instability may limit coverage of
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Cold air aloft arrives on Friday. Bufkit forecast soundings
showed large lapse rates and much of the elevated CAPE above
the freezing level. Have maintained thunder during the daytime.

Low level jet shows a maximum just behind in the front in the
50 to 60 knot range out of the west. This brings wind gusts in
the higher elevations of the southern Blue Ridge. Gusty wind
continues through Friday. This also supported by strong cold air
air advection and healthy pressure rises. Daytime mixing Friday will
also produce another surge in wind.

Temperatures will hold in the 50s and 60s until the cold front
passes through in the late evening. 850MB temperatures drop to
near zero be Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for gusty winds persisting into Saturday
before fading by Saturday night.

2) A low chance of showers and thunderstorms returns by late
Sunday for southeast West Virginia.

Gusty winds will continue into Friday night and Saturday due to
a strong pressure gradient between low pressure deepening in
eastern Canada and high pressure in the lower Mississippi River
Valley. There may be gusts approaching advisory criteria along
the southern Blue Ridge. The wet soil from recent rainfall could
allow a few trees and power lines to be blown down more easily.
Upslope rain showers will gradually fade from Boone to
Lewisburg by Saturday morning, and there may be snow flurries
along the higher elevations of western Greenbrier County before
the moisture completely dissipates. High pressure should provide
lighter winds and drier weather for the remainder of Saturday
and through Saturday night.

An upper level ridge will build eastward from the southern
Plains to the Gulf Coast on Sunday. As high pressure drifts
offshore, the flow should turn towards the southwest. The rising
heights aloft and the increasing warm air advection should
boost temperatures notably above normal with widespread highs in
the 70s by Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary
will dive southeastward from the Great Lakes, but the building
upper level ridge will halt any further progress southward from
Pennsylvania. Some showers and thunderstorms may spill into
central West Virginia by Saturday evening, so a low chance of
rain exists for the Interstate 64 corridor. Elsewhere, dry
weather is expected for Sunday and Sunday night. Temperatures
will stay elevated during Sunday night with lows only falling
into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1206 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Mainly Dry With Well Above Normal Temperatures

Forecast models agree in a building a ridge and 8h temps across
our area next week. Warm front close to the area Monday allows
for a few showers/storms but in general frontal systems will be
to our northwest through the period with limited chances for
showers or storms. Going to be more like early summer at times
with high temperatures in the 80s by midweek.

Highs and lows will be running 10-20 degrees above normal.

Forecast confidence is high on warmer pattern and moderate on
rain chances which will be mainly confined to the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Thursday...

NOTE: Have AMD NOT SKED at KDAN due to inconsistent wind data
outages.

Flying conditions will be poor at times this evening as
shower/storm activity will be widespread. Looking at potential
strong/severe storms along/east of a line from ROA-MWK through
03z.

Ceilings will rise to VFR east of the Blue Ridge with the west
wind behind the front.

Cold air aloft arrives on Friday. Bufkit forecast soundings
showed large lapse rates and much of the elevated CAPE above
the freezing level. Have maintained thunder during the daytime.
Some of the showers and thunderstorms will spread east into the
piedmont of Virginia and North Carolina during the afternoon but
kept precip out of the forecast in the east as will likely be
scattered.

Low level jet shows a maximum just behind in the front in the
50 to 60 knot range out of the west. This brings wind gusts in
the higher elevations of the southern Blue Ridge. Gusty wind
continues through Friday. This also supported by strong cold air
air advection and healthy pressure rises. Daytime mixing Friday will
also produce another surge in wind.

Forecast confidence is average.

OUTLOOK...

Friday night and Saturday, expect gusty northwest wind on the
west side of the exiting system with scattered to numerous upslope
showers and isolated thunderstorms for the mountains. Most
areas will trend to VFR east of the Blue Ridge.

By Sunday, VFR conditions are expected for all locations along
with weakening winds.

By Monday, a weak system may bring a return of some showers and
patchy sub-VFR conditions to Southeast West Virginia. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions are expected.

Mainly VFR through Tuesday with a few showers/storms possible
north of LWB-HSP.

Confidence in the above extended aviation scenario is moderate.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM EDT Friday for
     VAZ009-012>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM EDT Friday for
     NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT Friday for WVZ508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...AMS/WP

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