Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
232 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front over the area will result in another afternoon
of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. In general,
expecting unsettled weather to persist through the weekend with
humid conditions. Cooler and less humid weather arrives for
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 203 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) A stalled front over the area will result in scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms through early evening. A few
strong/severe and torrential downpour

2) Remaining seasonally hot and humid.

Storms already firing up across the mountains and along a wedge
front in the NC piedmont. High-res models favor greatest
coverage along the front/differential heating boundary and over
the more unstable air in the west where sunshine was more
abundant. Hard pressed to go higher likely coverage as its been
hit/miss slow movers. DCAPES not as high as yesterday with a
little more moisture around in the low levels, but higher pwats
and loading will make for potential downbursts and small hail.

Slow movers will lead to flooding potential but gain too widely
scattered to have a flood watch.

Temperatures this afternoon are forecast closer to the seasonal
norm, down a few degrees from yesterday, but still quite warm.

Storms should decrease this evening but cannot rule out isolated
showers/near the front/Blue Ridge overnight.

Fog/stratus likely overnight thru Sat morning, with muggy lows
in the 60s to around 70.

Saturday, the wedge front heads back north as we get back in the
warm sector area wide. Frontal boundary will reach the upper
Ohio Valley to lower Missouri Valley by late afternoon. Upper
ridge is starting to get shifted further south, so some height
falls and upper divergence should lead to particularly better
storm development across the Ohio Valley with storms moving into
WV by late morning and/or developing in the mountain by mid
afternoon. Higher pops will be along/west/north of I-81. With
some increase in shear and higher CAPEs, severe storms will be a
better potential Sat afternoon mainly northwest of I-81.

Forecast confidence is high on temps but moderate/average on
coverage of storms through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1. Storm chances linger into Monday but should see a shift south
by then

2. Main hazards are strong winds and heavy rainfall,
that could lead to localized flooding.

3. Near to above normal temperatures.

Unsettled weather continues through Sunday as front slowly
works southeast into and through the area by Monday morning.
Higher pops will be Sunday with the front, though increasing
cover could offset severe threat more than Saturday.

The upper trough axis stays west of our area until Monday
evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms are
possible again Monday afternoon, though best chance will be
along/south of the VA/NC border, with the front not too far
away, draped over eastern VA into central NC, but not expecting
much potential for any storms that do form to become severe.

Sunday should be slightly cooler if we have more clouds but
still humid. Highs in the mid to upper 80s east of the
mountains, mid to upper 70s west. Monday will be noticeably
cooler with the airmass change, high temperatures in the upper
70s in the west and low 80s in the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cooler temperatures are expected, with a warming trend expected
  toward the end of the week.

- Shower and thunderstorm probabilities return toward the latter
  half of the upcoming week.

Quiet weather conditions are expected for mid-week, as a surface
high extends from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast. Given the
placement of the ridge, a northeasterly low-level flow will be seen
across the region, which should allow (mainly) dry and cooler
weather conditions to be seen across our area.

Most of the precipitation for the upcoming week should remain to our
south, generally in vicinity of a frontal system extending from the
South Carolina Lowcountry to the Central Gulf Coast. As a wave of
low pressure moves along the boundary, I can't rule out an isolated
or scattered smattering of showers/storms across our forecast area.
The greatest coverage should be across our southern/southwestern
areas. Given an overall lack of forcing, I don't expect any
widespread rain events...well, at least at this stage of the game.
Much of the convective activity will be driven by moisture spilling
northward into our area and interacting with diurnal trends in
instability.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Friday...

Unsettled weather with highly variable cigs/vsbys during the 24
hour valid TAF.

Stalled front over the area will result in scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms. Greatest coverage will be
along/southwest of a LWB-LYH line, but will have at least tempo
TSRA in for a few hours this afternoon except LYH.

Sub-VFR cigs linger across the DAN til 20z at times, otherwise
VFR outside of storms through this evening.

Looks like a good threat of IFR or lower at most sites tonight
with wedge/front in the area and sufficient low level moisture.
Cloud cover higher up may impede this but confidence is moderate
enough go lower.

Winds will remain light and variable through the
afternoon, light with exception of thunderstorm outflow where
gusts may approach 25 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Stalled front will linger through the weekend. This favors a
mix of flight conditions with low confidence on flight
categories due to opportunity for showers/storms and nighttime
stratus and fog. A more bona fide push of cooler air from the
north is expected Monday, suggesting improved conditions for
early next week, although still subject to overnight valley fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS/WP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...PM/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
248 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

VAZ007-011-014-018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-WVZ042>044-507-508-
311900-
Tazewell-Giles-Montgomery-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-
Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Mercer-
Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
248 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. The main threat is damaging winds and heavy rain which could
lead to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a marginal risk of severe storms Saturday afternoon and
evening, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and
heavy rain are the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009-010-012-013-015>017-032-033-043-044-058-
059-311900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Smyth-Bland-Wythe-Pulaski-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-
Franklin-Henry-Pittsylvania-Halifax-Charlotte-
248 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia, southwest
Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a marginal risk of severe storms Saturday afternoon and
evening, and again Sunday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind and
heavy rain are the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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