Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
230 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front over the Mid Atlantic region will provide
the focus for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
through Thursday. A secondary front moves across Thursday night
with less coverage for showers and storms starting Friday and
continuing through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Stalled front still remains draped across the area.

2) Rain and thunderstorms possible through this
evening/overnight.

Still quite a bit of rain and cloud cover along and west of the
Blue Ridge this afternoon. Thinking this will continue to limit
thunderstorm coverage for the remainder of the afternoon for
the mountains. However, seeing some clearing over the Foothills
and Piedmont areas of VA and NC so confidence remains higher
that this zone will have the best chance for thunderstorms
through the evening. Much like yesterday, storms will be capable
of very heavy rainfall and areas of localized wind damage are
possible.

Rain and storms taper off after sunset and the area should
remain in a lull through at least midnight. Will begin to see
rain develop again after midnight as better isentropic lift
moves over the region. Should see rain continue through daybreak
tomorrow, tapering off by late morning.

A secondary front will begin to push south from the Ohio Valley
and will attempt to push drier air into the region by Thursday
night. Depending on how much clearing occurs tomorrow ahead of
the front will determine the coverage of thunderstorms during
the afternoon. Still a bit of uncertainty how fast the front
progresses and how much surface heating can occur after morning
rainfall moves out. Again, any storms tomorrow will be capable
of very efficient rainfall rates and localized strong damaging
winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1: Less coverage of showers/storms.

High pressure is forecast to move east across the northern Mid-
Atlantic, with drying taking place from north to south. This
feature is expected to drive wedge of stable down the east side
of the Appalachians so looking at decrease opportunity for
showers as Thursday's secondary cold front getting shunted to
our south and west. Pressure pattern looks "wedgy" with
development of a northeast-east wind. This should nix shower
potential for areas east of the Appalachian Divide.

Attm will maintain chance for showers for areas west of I-77
Friday, then mainly west of our CWA for the weekend. Weekend as
a whole looks dry, but not confident that it will be clear.
Lingering layer of low level moisture may result in persistent
cloud cover...especially for the southwestern part of the CWA,
but model soundings support little or no cloud depth.

Temperatures going into this weekend will be highly dependant on
cloud cover...MOS favoring readings at or below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1: Mainly dry Sunday

2: Scattered showers/storms return Monday

3: Warming temperatures Monday-Wednesday.

High pressure will move off the East coast Sunday into Monday
with moist southwest winds returning by Monday. This will result
in increasing potential for showers beginning Sunday night
with daily threat for thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday as
heat and instability trend upward. Temperatures are expected to
be near normal Sunday-Monday, then about 5 degrees above normal
for Tuesday-Wednesday...but nothing extreme.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 150 PM EDT Wednesday...

Ample cloud cover along and west of the Blue Ridge has kept
terminals in these locations at low end VFR to MVFR through this
afternoon. Not much confidence of this changing through this
evening so expect ongoing MVFR clouds and showers of rainfall
for the mountains through tomorrow morning for areas along and
west of the Blue Ridge. Due to lack of sun in the aforementioned
areas, have removed the mention of VCTS/TSRA from BCB/BLF/LWB.

Better clearing has occurred east of the Blue Ridge and
thunderstorm development is still expected, so periods of very
heavy rain through this afternoon and evening is still possible
for ROA/LYH/DAN. Widespread low cigs/vsby again tonight so
fairly high confidence all terminals see IFR/LIFR at times
through daybreak.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Frontal boundary will stick around into Friday morning before
driving southward over the weekend. Should start to see less
coverage in showers/storms Friday and especially into the
weekend, so mainly VFR outside of storms and late night
fog/stratus.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...BMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
409 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-250815-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
409 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening. Excessive rainfall could lead to isolated flash flooding of
streams and urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall through Thursday.
Heavy rain from thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>034-043>047-058-059-250815-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Wilkes-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-
Bedford-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-
409 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will produce instances of
torrential rain this afternoon and into tonight. This will lead to a
risk of scattered flash flooding, especially in urban and poor
drainage areas.

Additionally, a few storms could become strong to severe with
damaging wind gusts the main threat this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall through Friday. Heavy
rain from thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
531 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

VAZ044-045-058-242200-
Halifax VA-Campbell VA-Pittsylvania VA-
531 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN CAMPBELL...CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA AND NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX
COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

At 531 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gretna, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hurt...
Chatham...
Gretna...
Brookneal...
Mt Airy...
Nathalie...
and Java.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3674 7946 3697 7958 3701 7949 3701 7948
      3702 7946 3722 7899 3705 7889 3702 7890
      3700 7889 3698 7890 3698 7889 3699 7888
      3699 7885 3688 7879
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 250DEG 38KT 3691 7938

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

VFJ