Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Blacksburg, VA

807 
WGUS71 KRNK 040339
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1139 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

VAC019-040700-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-240804T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bedford VA-
1139 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR 
NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTY...

At 1139 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2.5 and 3.5 inches of 
rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Bedford...                         Big Island...
Sedalia...                         Peaks Of Otter Summit...
Peaks Of Otter Recreation Area...  Coleman Falls...

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Chestnut Branch, Indian Run, James River, Hurricane Creek, Ivy 
  Creek, Big Otter River and Elk Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding, 
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather 
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports 
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service 
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 7938 3753 7935 3752 7935 3752 7934
      3751 7933 3750 7930 3750 7929 3740 7936
      3736 7941 3734 7960 3741 7965 3746 7957
      3752 7951

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

AS

203 
WGUS71 KRNK 040658
FFSRNK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
258 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

VAC019-040708-
/O.EXP.KRNK.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-240804T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bedford VA-
258 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 3 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3756 7938 3753 7935 3752 7935 3752 7934
      3751 7933 3750 7930 3750 7929 3740 7936
      3736 7941 3734 7960 3741 7965 3746 7957
      3752 7951

$$

AS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
819 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through this
evening with the potential for both heavy rain and damaging
winds. Less precipitation is expected Sunday into Tuesday.
Beyond that, rainfall chances will depend on the evolution and
track of Tropical Storm Debby, but temperatures will be near
normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Saturday...

Severe threat is now diminishing as the area is fairly worked
over. However, could be transitioning to more of a flood threat
as heavier rain with embedded thunderstorms have developed
again across the higher terrain. These will slowly move into the
Piedmont and possibly across areas that have already seen
rainfall amounts in excess of 2 to 3 inches. May see this
activity linger until the midnight hour and then gradually taper
off.

Still expecting plenty of clouds and some fog to develop
overnight.

As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Numerous thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, a few
instances of damaging winds and localized flooding possible.

2) A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the foothills
and piedmont.

3) More fog and low stratus overnight into Sunday morning.

4) Additional convection tomorrow, mainly for the piedmont.

Showers and thunderstorms were increasing in coverage across
the forecast area this afternoon. A slightly-positively tilted
upper trough axis as well as a pre-frontal trough were advancing
from WNW to ESE across the forecast area. The upper trough's axis
was already entering our northern counties, and as such the
better dynamics will spend only a short time here before
shifting towards DC, Wakefield, and Richmond.

Looking at the latest mesoanalysis, DCAPE and MLCAPE increase
markedly east of the Blue Ridge, with about 30 kts of shear
between 0-3 km. This is enough for multicell and short line
segments such as we have been seeing the last hour or two, with
damaging winds being the main threat, and hail a secondary
threat. This is the basis for the Severe Thunderstorm Watch in
our area.

The slow-moving boundary, high PWATs, deep warm cloud depths,
and the boundary perpendicular to the flow point to a high
chance for urban and small stream flooding, and an increased
chance for flash flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for
much of the piedmont through 10 PM.

The coverage of precipitation will lessen overnight, but with
the stalled surface front still providing low level convergence
in the area, will leave a low probability of precipitation in
after midnight. This will be mainly for Rockingham Co. NC,
Caswell Co. NC, and Pittsylvania and Halifax Counties in VA
(extreme SE part of the piedmont in our area). The same area can
expect scattered showers and storms Sunday afternoon and
evening. These will have less severe potential, but heavy rain
is possible.

Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for the
mountains with partly to mostly sunny skies at times. The
piedmont will see highs in the mid to perhaps upper 80s.
Confidence in the near term forecast is moderate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1255 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for lower chances of showers and
thunderstorms during Monday and Tuesday.

2) Temperatures will trend slightly above seasonal values for
this time of year.

Weak high pressure will hold across the Mid Atlantic for the
early part of the week, while a frontal boundary remains
stalled along the East Coast. A tropical cyclone that could
become Tropical Storm Debby should cross Florida sometime on
Monday and traverse along the Georgia and South Carolina
coastline by Tuesday. It appears that subsidence from the
northwest side of this tropical cyclone will keep conditions
drier with only a low chance of showers and thunderstorms across
the Blue Ridge and eastward into the Piedmont for both Monday
and Tuesday. Temperatures should run slightly above normal with
highs ranging from the lower 80s to the lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms for the remainder of the week.

2) Temperatures will trend cooler due to increasing cloud cover
and chances of rain.

This part of the forecast is entirely dependent on the future
track of a tropical cyclone, which would likely be Tropical
Storm Debby, spinning somewhere along the Southeast coast. The
models continue to struggle significantly as the steering
currents become weak during Wednesday and Thursday. Increasing
tropical moisture could allow a growing chance of showers and
thunderstorms for locations along and east of the Appalachian
Mountains as the week progresses. Cloud cover will also
increase, which should keep temperatures lower with highs only
in the 70s and 80s. Once an upper level trough arrives over the
Great Lakes sometime by the end of the week, the flow aloft
should push the tropical moisture away from the Mid Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 815 PM EDT Saturday...

Areas of rain with embedded thunderstorms and heavier downpours
to continue through midnight. Mix of VFR and some MVFR, but sub
VFR expected in the heavier storms.

Expect the areal coverage of precipitation to lessen overnight,
but with the stalled surface front providing low level
convergence in the area, will leave a low probability of
precipitation in after midnight. Models suggest MVFR or lower
ceilings/fog behind the front late tonight into Sunday morning.
Additional showers possible Sunday for the piedmont, mainly
impacting LYH and DAN.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Looking mainly dry and VFR for Sunday night through Tuesday at
this time, although late night/early morning fog is possible,
especially at LWB/BCB. Later in the week the potential for more
rain and gusty winds will depend on the development and track of
Tropical Depression Four.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

Key message:

    - Flood Watch for Excessive Rainfall continues

A surface front will stall parallel to upper flow and mean
storm motion follows this southwest to northeast track which
supports higher rainfall amounts. Precipitable water values will
continue to be in the 1.5 to 2 inch range through tonight, which
also supports heavy rainfall rates. The Soil Moisture analysis
from the National Water Center shows ground conditions already
moist or saturated across much of southwest Virginia, northwest
North Carolina and southeast West Virginia. In collaboration
with neighboring NWS offices, have issued a Flood Watch for
excessive rainfall through this evening.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

Observations from KDAN, Danville, Virginia may still be sporadic
for the rest of the day. Use with caution. Some elements of the
observation may be missing at times.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ043>047-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...BMG/SH
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...BMG/SH
HYDROLOGY...AMS
EQUIPMENT...SH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
216 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

NCZ004>006-VAZ043>047-058-059-041830-
Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-
Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
216 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The threat for excessive rainfall and localized flooding may persist
through mid to late week as Tropical Depression Four moves slowly
over the Southeast US and Carolinas. Check hurricanes.gov for latest
updates on the tropical system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ003-020-VAZ032>035-041830-
Surry-Yadkin-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-
216 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The threat for excessive rainfall and localized flooding may persist
through mid to late week as Tropical Depression Four moves slowly
over the Southeast US and Carolinas. Check hurricanes.gov for latest
updates on the tropical system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ001-002-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>044-507-508-041830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Wilkes-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-
Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-
Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
216 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The threat for excessive rainfall and localized flooding may persist
through mid to late week as Tropical Depression Four moves slowly
over the Southeast US and Carolinas. Check hurricanes.gov for latest
updates on the tropical system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
616 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Dry Fork          36.79N 79.43W
08/03/2024                   Pittsylvania       VA   911 Call Center

            Several trees down blocking Tightsqueeze
            Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 NW Hat Creek          37.16N 78.99W
08/03/2024                   Campbell           VA   911 Call Center

            Tree down across Three Creeks Road, blocking
            both lanes.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
822 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

VAZ034-040045-
Bedford VA-
822 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 845 PM EDT...

At 822 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Peaks Of Otter Summit, or near Bedford, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bedford...
Big Island...
Forest...
Coleman Falls...
Goode...
Peaks Of Otter Summit...
and Peaks Of Otter Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3751 7934 3751 7931 3750 7930 3751 7926
      3749 7926 3727 7935 3736 7969 3746 7960
      3745 7960 3745 7958 3747 7958 3749 7956
      3749 7954 3753 7950 3753 7935
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 279DEG 7KT 3743 7951

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BMG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
831 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 PM     Flash Flood      4 SSE Gladys            37.12N 79.05W
08/03/2024                   Campbell           VA   911 Call Center

            Whipping Creek has come out of its banks and
            is flowing over the road and bridge on
            Collins Ferry Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
837 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Blairs              36.68N 79.43W
08/03/2024                   Pittsylvania       VA   911 Call Center

            Large limb laying in the roadway on Franklin
            Pike. 4900 Block.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
843 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Blairs              36.69N 79.43W
08/03/2024                   Pittsylvania       VA   911 Call Center

            Powerlines down on Twin Springs Drive.

&&