Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
147 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper disturbance approaches the area this evening which is
going to help develop scattered storms. Saturday will have the
highest probability of precipitation as a cold front crosses the
area. At this point Monday has the potential to be the driest
day next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Friday...

Key message:

    - Heat advisory through early evening in the Piedmont

    - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, some may be
      strong/severe.

    - Better coverage of showers/storms Saturday, severe threat
      marginal east of the Blue Ridge

Convection has fired up across the southern Blue Ridge with
storms moving into WV/SW VA of a vort in eastern KY. Most storms
are moving 15-30 mph, but some backbuilding observed along the
southern Blue Ridge, with rainfall rated 3-4"/hr, so will have
to watch for localized flooding thanks to this and pwats
1.5-1.8".

Followed close to a blend of 16z HRRR/NBM/Hi-ResARW through this
evening, then leaned toward GFS/NBM/HREF late tonight-Saturday.
This leads to scattered to numerous storms this
afternoon/evening higher coverage in the mountains.

With a decent shortwave and southwest flow into tonight, not
really seeing an end to shower/storm chances overnight but do
cut pops back to low to slight chance, before upticking through
the day Saturday, where better upper dynamics and PVA will
enhance coverage ahead of cold front, with likely pops majority
of the area.

There is a severe threat, but cloud cover may be more prominent
Saturday which could limit this. Marginal risk of damaging winds
still possible east of the mountains. Storms again should be
moving along but training of storms could lead to localized
flooding.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the 60s in the mountains to
lower 70s east. Not as warm/hot Saturday with more coverage of
storms/clouds with upper 80s east to upper 70s to lower 80s
west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for chances of showers and thunderstorms to
gradually decrease to start the new week.

2) Temperatures will nudge upward a little on Monday.

An upper level trough should head eastward toward the East Coast
during Saturday night into Sunday. The chances of scattered showers
and thunderstorms will slowly wane as the threat of convection
shifts eastward over time. Any activity will eventually end by
Sunday night as weak high pressure arrives from the northwest to
bring slightly drier air. Model agreement is starting to improve on
the track of a potential tropical cyclone moving across Florida on
Sunday night and paralleling the coastline from Georgia to North
Carolina during Monday and Monday night. With the Mid Atlantic
staying on the western side of this cyclone, the extra subsidence
could keep most locations dry. Compared to Sunday, temperatures may
rise a couple degrees by Monday from the additional sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for drier weather on Tuesday.

2) The chance of showers and thunderstorms may slowly increase
during the remainder of the week.

A potential tropical cyclone may be situated off the North Carolina
coastline by Tuesday and continue to parallel the East Coast towards
the New England states later in the work week. Meanwhile, subsidence
from the western side of this cyclone could keep conditions drier
across the Mid Atlantic. An upper level trough may move across the
Great Lakes to slowly increase the chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms for the remainder of the week. This trough will also
help to steer the potential tropical cyclone away from the East
Coast as the work week concludes. Temperatures overall in this
forecast period will stay near or just above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 142 PM EDT Friday...

Following radar trends this afternoon will have TSRA/VCTS at all
sites but moreso from ROA/BCB west to BLF/LWB. Should see sub-
VFR with storms and perhaps some gusty winds.

Storms are going to linger at times through tonight but should
be lesser coverage so not going to have any in the tafs at this
point. Again, unsure on fog/low clouds as cloud cover may limit
this but did have some put in at LWB/BCB, leaning toward IFR
2sm.

Showers/storms will become more numerous Saturday but mainly in
the afternoon, so left out of the tafs.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.
Below average confidence for the location of thunderstorms.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Showers/storms are expected to diminish Sat night into Sunday
but still potential for sub-VFR with storms and any fog/low
clouds at night. precipitation Sunday into Monday.

Looking dry at the moment Monday-Tuesday with VFR outside of
late night/early morning fog at LWB/BCB. Potential for tropical
impacts mid to late week especially if you are flying along the
eastern seaboard.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 250 AM EDT Friday...

Here are the August 2nd warmest minimum temperatures for our
local climate sites, along with the year they were set.

Bluefield WV.....71 (2006)
Danville VA......79 (1924)
Lynchburg VA.....73 (2020)
Roanoke VA.......74 (2022)
Blacksburg VA....69 (1933)

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ046-047-058-
     059.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ006.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS/BMG/WP
CLIMATE...AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
533 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>013-015-018>020-WVZ042>044-507-508-030945-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-
Grayson-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
533 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest North Carolina,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall and severe
thunderstorms. Localized flooding, damaging wind are possible this
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Saturday.
Localized flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ003>005-019-020-VAZ014-016-017-022>024-032>035-043>045-030945-
Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Wilkes-Yadkin-Montgomery-Carroll-Floyd-
Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-
Pittsylvania-Campbell-
533 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall and severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Localized flooding and
damaging wind are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall and severe
thunderstorms on Saturday. Localized flooding and damaging wind are
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ006-VAZ046-047-058-059-030945-
Caswell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
533 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall and severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Localized flooding and
damaging wind are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall and a
marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday. Localized
flooding and damaging wind are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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