Tornado Warning 18, NWS Charleston, WV

801 
WWUS51 KRLX 252232
SVSRLX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
632 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

WVC075-252245-
/O.CON.KRLX.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-240925T2245Z/
Pocahontas WV-
632 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN POCAHONTAS COUNTY...

At 632 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Marlinton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Marlinton around 635 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Hillsboro, Buckeye, and Cranberry Mountain Nature Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 8018 3819 8029 3833 8013 3814 7997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 222DEG 18KT 3821 8018 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

JMC

415 
WWUS51 KRLX 252244
SVSRLX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
644 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

WVC075-252254-
/O.EXP.KRLX.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-240925T2245Z/
Pocahontas WV-
644 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN POCAHONTAS COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 645 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

&&

LAT...LON 3811 8018 3819 8029 3833 8013 3814 7997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 224DEG 22KT 3825 8012 

$$

JMC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
234 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue this week
in response to a stationary disturbance over the Ohio Valley and
a tropical system sailing up from the Gulf coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1226 PM Wednesday...

Key Points:

 * Flood Watch in effect for southwest VA and McDowell Co. in WV
   until Thursday evening.

A frontal boundary, oriented north to south, remains stationary just
west of the area tonight, before becoming diffused on Thursday.
Meanwhile, ripples of vorticity, associated with deepening upper
level low, will continue to provide necessary forcing to
maintain showers and thunderstorms going tonight into Thursday.
PWATs values about two standard deviation from the mean,
coupled with deep layered shear 45 to 50 knots should promote
showers and strong thunderstorms capable to produce very heavy
downpours. Hi-res CAMs suggest another batch of convection
affecting southern WV, southwest VA this evening, and continuing
with lighter rainfall during the overnight hours. These areas
have been hit by repetitive showers during the last 24 hours,
and additional rainfall may result in flooding problems.
Therefore, will issue a Flood Watch for these areas starting
this afternoon through Thursday evening.

Abundant moisture and cloudiness will keep lows in the mid 60s
across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 50s northeast mountains.
The cloudiness and cooling showers will keep Thursday high
temperatures in the lower 80s lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s
northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 213 PM Wednesday...

Precipitation, and winds, will ramp back up again for Friday as the
remnants of Helene move onshore and northward towards the region,
eventually weakening and becoming absorbed into upper low across
Lower MS Valley Friday evening. Main track of the low still looking
to be just to our west. Ample moisture, with PW values progged to
rise to 2 inches or more across the area, will help to provide some
beneficial rain to the area, particularly across the mountains and
southern zones. In addition, strong gusty winds will develop, owing
to tight pressure gradient and strong winds aloft, particularly
along ridges. Heaviest QPF will be across the mountains and far
southern zones, with parts of WV lowlands looking to
potentially suffer from downslope effects/lighter QPF. Could
foresee wind and water headlines across far south with future
packages.

Precipitation will gradually decrease in coverage Friday evening
into the first part of Saturday as Helene becomes absorbed into
upper low across Lower MS Valley, and rotates northwest of the area
briefly. However, precipitation will increase in coverage again
later Saturday into Sunday as the low slowly drifts east across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

Weather remains unsettled early next week as aforementioned low
continues to depart eastward, followed by a front on Tuesday. Cooler
and drier weather looks to take hold by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 233 PM Wednesday...

Tricky forecast amid general guidance plummeting restrictions to
LIFR across the board. Followed closer the CONSShort solution having
MVFR ceilings developing across the lowlands, and IFR or worse along
the eastern mountains for tonight. Any shower or storm across the
lowlands tonight could momentarily reduce restrictions to IFR/LIFR
along their path.

Low confidence forecast due to uncertainty tracks of upper low and
associated passing shortwaves.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extend of showers and thunderstorms
may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
Brief, but repetitive periods of IFR conditions possible in
showers of storms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for WVZ033.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for VAZ003-004.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1240 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-261645-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-
1240 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Localized flooding concerns may arise from daily showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-WVZ005-013-015-024>026-034-515>518-261645-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Wayne-Lincoln-Kanawha-Mingo-Logan-
Boone-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-
1240 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, and
portions of southeast, southern and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Localized flooding concerns may arise from daily showers and
thunderstorms through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Localized flooding concerns may arise from daily showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ006>011-014-016>020-027>032-039-040-
519>526-261645-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-
Lawrence OH-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-
Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
1240 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Ohio and much of
West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Localized flooding concerns may arise from daily showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.