Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
723 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms possible through tonight in the midst
of a passing cold front. Another round of showers and storms
Friday morning with a cold front, cooler this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 702 PM Wednesday...

Updated POPs to better represent the current situation and
ongoing activity to the north along southeast Ohio and northern
WV. Took out chances across the mountains for now since nothing
came to fruition from the boundary that was draped across the
mountains. As of now, the forecast is on track and no other
modification were done to it at this time.

As of 357 PM Wednesday...

Tornado Watch #123 has been issued and is in effect for
southeast Ohio and northern WV counties in the CWA. With the
support of a llj along with plenty of wind shear and instability
the environment for possible tornadoes is favored at this time.
Helicity is marginal but enough, ML LCL are right at the
marginal level as well, but you have the other severe indices
that are elevated and enough to promote this type of near term
environment not too mention good vertical growth.

As of 1255 PM Wednesday...

Active weather is quickly getting underway upstream to our west
along a cold front. Mesoanalysis shows a ribbon of strong
instability where convective initiation is transpiring at the
time of writing, along the Ohio and Indiana state lines. Daytime
heating once again contributes to convective development, where
temps in the 70s/80s, coupled with dewpoints in the low 60s,
will allow for blossoming convection that may advertise strong
to severe conditions through this evening.

Storms will progress in an east-northeast fashion through the
course of the afternoon into tonight, approaching our
northwestern zones shortly after 5 PM, then grazing the northern
flank of the forecast area this evening as the front charges
eastward.

A Tornado Watch was hoisted up for parts of the Ohio
Valley at the time of writing amid this swath of favorable low
level shear and instability. This will certainly be something
to monitor downstream for our area later on this afternoon in
the event convective trends exude a similar environment,
especially as peeks of sunshine slip through the stratus field,
per satellite imagery. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are
the biggest concerns as storms travel into the Ohio River
Valley. One thing that is different from yesterday's convection
is that the shear component is noted today, imposing the tornado
risk alongside the aforementioned hazards. Localized hydro
concerns may also be present within heavier downpours.

The front is slated to cross through late tonight into early
Thursday morning, with precipitation wrapping up along the
mountains around dawn. A drier day is on tap for Thursday in
response to brief ridging aloft. Temperatures remain above
normal for this time of year, but will fall a few degrees short
of both yesterday's and today's highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Wednesday...

Cold front approaches from the west Thursday night with PoPs
gradually increasing from west to east after 11 PM. Warm sector
looks to be in play for Friday with 70s across the lowlands and
60s in the mountains.

Thunderstorm activity will be in the cards for Friday, due to
forcing, as the cold front moves through Friday morning and
afternoon. Severe weather does look to be a factor at this
time, but strong storms could be possible. Showers will start
to taper off during the evening hours, making for a segue into
to a dry Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Wednesday...

The weekend looks to be on the cooler side, but mostly dry, as
the area will be under the influence of high pressure post
FROPA. Weekend high temperatures will be in the high 50s and 60s
across the lowlands, with the mountains staying down in the 40s
to the low 60s. Dry weather will be in place Saturday until
Sunday morning, where a slight chance of showers and storms are
possible across the southwestern VA and eastern WV mountains.
Patchy frost looks possible Sunday night, especially across the
northern WV lowlands/mountains and across southeast OH.

Next week looks to show a gradual warming trend with a system
affecting the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 720 PM Wednesday...

FROPA is tonight with thunderstorm activity associated ahead of
it to our northern tier. This will place TS activity into the
TAFs for the northern sites but will only go through the evening
hours into early tonight, before midnight. The rest of the
sites are placed in a VCTS category with possible activity as
the front passes through. Any activity is on the low side of
probability for the southern sites. CIGs/VIS should
predominately stay VFR, however under a shower/TS then MVFR or
worse restrictions may occur temporarily. After midnight maybe
some shower activity in the northeast mountains affecting
CKB/EKN although the probability is low at this time.
Thereafter, clouds start to cleat out by morning with mostly
clear skies during the afternoon with dry and settled weather.
Winds will be on the lighter side tomorrow with low, less than
15KT gusts in the forecast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
Spotty IFR possible along the mountains on Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MEK/LTC
NEAR TERM...JZ/MEK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...JZ

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
746 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     Flash Flood      2 NNW New Lexington     39.74N 82.23W
04/17/2024                   Perry              OH   911 Call Center

            Flooding with debris along roadway along
            state route 13 just north of new lexington.

&&

JZ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
750 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SE New Straitsville   39.57N 82.22W
04/17/2024                   Perry              OH   911 Call Center

            Tree down.

&&

JZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
803 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

OHZ067-075-076-180030-
Washington OH-Athens OH-Morgan OH-
803 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN WASHINGTON...
SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN AND EAST CENTRAL ATHENS COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM
EDT...

At 802 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chesterhill, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marietta, Beverly, Chesterhill, Williamstown, Lowell, Stockport,
Fleming, Bartlett, and Devola.

This includes Interstate 77 in Ohio between mile markers 2 and 8.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for southeastern
Ohio...and northwestern West Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3951 8137 3941 8144 3940 8147 3937 8151
      3935 8155 3929 8157 3944 8200 3961 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 288DEG 32KT 3950 8187

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

12

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
837 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     Hail             1 NNW Beverly           39.56N 81.65W
04/17/2024  M1.00 Inch       Washington         OH   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reports largest hail size of
            1 inch under a severe storm.

&&

JZ

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