Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
304 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Flooding and strong to severe storms are possible into tonight.
Turning cooler Wednesday into Friday, with accumulating
mountain snow showers to round out the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 304 PM Tuesday...

The Flood Watch has been extended through 15Z Wednesday morning
with potential for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall continuing
overnight.

As of 1250 PM Tuesday...

The first round of storms have exited the region, and the second
round of showers and storms are approaching from the west across
northern and eastern Kentucky. We expect this round of showers
and storms to approach after 3 PM from west to east. The severe
extent of this next round remains uncertain, as the first round
of storms has stabilized the atmosphere across most of the
region with plenty of CIN currently across West Virginia,
southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky and southwest Virginia.
Nonetheless, strong deep layer shear is still present with 50-60
kts of 0-6 km bulk shear over the entire region, so any
instability that does develop will have plenty of dynamics to
work with.

The cold front will cross between 06Z and 12Z tomorrow morning,
and behind it, we expect low stratus and rounds of post-frontal
showers into Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday's highs
will be much cooler than today, only reaching the 50s for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 221 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:

 * A cold front sweeps through the area on Wednesday morning.

 * Turning colder behind the front with wintry mix across the lowlands,
   and snow along the West Virginia mountains.

 * Multi-day upslope snow event from Wednesday night into Friday night,
   with accumulations possibly warranting winter headlines.

By Wednesday morning, the cold front will advance across the eastern
mountains, taking most of the rain showers with it. There could be a
lull in precipitation right behind the front, but additional
precipitation will return from the west late Wednesday, as a strong
upper level low digs south behind the front. A reinforcing the cold
air and air parcel trajectories suggest moisture from lake Superior
and Michigan will manage to reach the OH Valley and West Virginia
late Wednesday afternoon or evening. Models bring H850 minus 5C line
across the area into Thursday. As the moisture from the lakes reaches
our area, some light rain/snow mix will be possible across the
lowlands, and all upslope snow across the higher elevations.

WPC probabilistic guidance suggests 50 percent for snow
accumulations greater than 1 inch possible across the higher
elevations of our northeast mountains by Thursday morning. And
a 50 percent probability of exceeding 4 inches of snow by Friday
morning. WWD guidance suggests 2 to 4 inches of snow over at
elevations of 3,000 feet and higher by Friday morning. For the
lowlands, little or no snow accumulations are expected due to
the warm soils and relatively warm afternoons. However, expect
even higher amounts across the higher elevations, while the
western foothill can receive from 1 to 3 inches of snow.

The broad upper level circulation out of the northeast coast
will keep deep northwest flow going Friday night into late
Saturday, gradually tapering off the lake enhance snow showers
and upslope effects over our northeast mountains. Total storm
snow accumulations from 3 to 8 inches are expected by Saturday
evening across the higher elevations.

Winter weather headlines will be needed at least for our
northeast mountains during the next coming shifts as confidence
increases. Will continue to retain mention in the HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 221 PM Tuesday...

As the aforementioned broad upper level low moves farther away from
the NE coast, we loose the Great Lakes' connection, putting an end
to the upslope snow showers across the northeast mountains by
Saturday morning.

Then, an upper level ridge builds across the region, providing
dry weather conditions for most part of the weekend. Expect a
gradual warm up during the afternoons with chilly nights during
the weekend. Chances for precipitation return for the start of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 151 PM Tuesday...

The initial line of storms has exited the region, and we are
currently expecting another line of storms to approach the
terminals between 20Z this afternoon and 00Z this evening. In
addition, there will be another round of showers and
thunderstorms overnight. In any thunderstorm, expect visibility
reductions to MVFR and IFR in the heaviest downpours. In
addition, variable winds can gust 50-60 kts in the strongest
storms late this afternoon and this evening. All of this has
been reflected in the latest TAF package, but we did not include
IFR in the TAFs at this time due to low confidence in the exact
timing of storms.

A cold front will cross the region between 06Z and 12Z
Wednesday. In the wake of the cold front, expect MVFR ceilings
in the West Virginia lowlands and IFR ceilings in the mountains
for the remainder of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/timing of precipitation and
associated MVFR/IFR may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR possible in snow in the higher elevations of the northern
West Virginia mountains Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
302 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-
034-039-040-515>526-031915-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
302 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

In addition, scattered to numerous strong thunderstorms will be
possible late this afternoon into tonight. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the main risks with storms, but tornadoes cannot
be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Snow showers will be possible late Wednesday night through Friday
night. Accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with locally
higher amounts possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-031915-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-
302 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Numerous strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon into tonight. Storms will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes. Heavy downpours could also
result in flooding or flash flooding concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
256 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Kanawha City            38.33N 81.59W
04/02/2024                   Kanawha            WV   Public

            Multiple trees and large limbs down in
            Kanawha City.

&&

GW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
258 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     South Charleston        38.36N 81.71W
04/02/2024                   Kanawha            WV   NWS Employee

            Several trees down on WV Tech Park campus.
            Weather station recorded 56 mph wind gust.

&&

ABE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
322 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 AM     Tornado          2 SSW Westwood          38.46N 82.70W
04/02/2024                   Boyd               KY   Emergency Mngr

            Photos submitted by Boyd County EMA clearly
            indicate tornadic damage of at least EF1
            intensity with two mobile homes displaced
            and/or rolled, trees uprooted and snapped
            along with additional structural damage on
            Rose Road. A damage survey will take place
            at a later time to assess path width, length
            and final EF rating.

&&

ABE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
326 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

WVZ013>015-025-026-022000-
Boone WV-Kanawha WV-Lincoln WV-Logan WV-Putnam WV-
326 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM...WEST
CENTRAL KANAWHA...CENTRAL LINCOLN...NORTH CENTRAL LOGAN AND
NORTHWESTERN BOONE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 325 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gill, or 14 miles west of Madison, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Charleston, Nitro, Madison, Jefferson, South Charleston, St. Albans,
Dunbar, Chesapeake, Marmet, Belle, Cedar Grove, East Bank, Glasgow,
Spurlockville, Institute, Tornado, Coal Fork, Harts, Cross Lanes, and
Gill.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 96 and 104.
 Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 46 and 57.
 West Virginia Turnpike between mile markers 83 and 95.
 Route 119 between mile markers 49 and 80.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3798 8207 3808 8220 3849 8175 3822 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 240DEG 49KT 3807 8207

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
401 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

WVZ015-026-027-515-517>519-022030-
Northwest Raleigh WV-Clay WV-Boone WV-Kanawha WV-
Southeast Fayette WV-Northwest Nicholas WV-Northwest Fayette WV-
401 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN NICHOLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN KANAWHA...NORTHWESTERN RALEIGH...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY...
FAYETTE AND NORTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chesapeake, or 15 miles south of Charleston, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Babcock State Park, Oak Hill, Montgomery, Chesapeake,
Ansted, Cedar Grove, East Bank, Glasgow, Smithers, Gauley Bridge,
Pratt, Powellton, Hawks Nest State Park, Burnwell, Whitesville,
Handley, Sylvester, Dawes, and Swiss.

This includes the following highways...
 West Virginia Turnpike between mile markers 60 and 86.
 Route 19 between mile markers 12 and 31.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 8161 3844 8103 3810 8088 3809 8089
      3808 8088 3808 8089 3806 8087 3806 8086
      3800 8083 3795 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 251DEG 51KT 3814 8154

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

04