Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
232 PM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Remaining hot and humid through Saturday. There is a chance for
primarily diurnally driven showers and storms today through the
day Saturday, with better rain chances with a cold front
Saturday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 227 PM Thursday...

Iso/sct convection continues across the mountains and over far
northern WV. CAMs generally keep coverage on the lower end with
regards to coverage, but additional storm development is
possible on any OFBs given the environment. Any cap is
relatively weak and OFB interaction will help with new storm
development. With MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 j/kg range and minimal
shear, organization is not expected. However, DCAPE values are
around 1000 j/kg across much of the area, so gusty winds with
some localized downed trees/power outages possible. Best chance
for any strong convection will be across northern WV, portions
of OH, and the mountains.

Activity should gradually diminish by early evening, but could
persist a little longer into the evening if greater bndry
interaction and cold pool organization occurs. Even there,
activity will diminish by late evening into early morning.

Patchy valley/river FG expected again tonight. Some of the
guidance was rather robust, but given the drought and lack of
areas receiving rainfall, dialed it back some. Any FG will
quickly diminish by 12z or so.

The stationary bndry draped across the region will lift as a
warm front tomorrow afternoon. This will result in another hot
and humid day with afternoon isolated/scattered convection.
Coverage looks less as that bndry will be well north of the
region. While severe weather is not expected, a few stronger
storms with gusty winds and brief heavy rain are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 155 PM Thursday...

Any diurnal convective activity Friday fades quickly with loss of
heating Friday night. Mid-level lapse rates will be rather poor
(generally <6C/km) and deep layer shear will be weak (generally
less than 15KT) Saturday, but temperatures across the lower
elevations in the lower 90s along with dew points in the mid to
upper 60s should still yield sufficient instability for some
afternoon convection - some locally gusty winds would be
possible underneath the strongest cores. Slow moving, efficient
rainfall producing storms could also produce some locally
heavier rainfall footprints, although with recent dry conditions
impacts outside direct hits on built up areas seem unlikely.

Better chances for precipitation come Saturday evening into Sunday
along a surface cold front with rainfall amounts between a quarter
and one inch expected - beneficial, but not likely to put much of a
dent in extremely dry conditions across the region. Light
precipitation lingers in the post frontal environment Sunday
before finally ending Sunday night with a reinforcing cooler and
drier airmass.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 PM Thursday...

Mainly dry and somewhat cooler conditions are expected through the
the new work week as high pressure slowly drifts eastward. As the
high becomes anchored offshore, some modest southerly flow around
the western flank may start to advect some slightly better moisture
poleward once again by mid-week that could yield some isolated
diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly across the south.
The next chance of any more widespread precipitation looks to come
with a cold front for the following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Isolated to scattered showers/storms are developing across the
region, mainly the mountains, and will continue into early
evening. Brief and localized deductions to CIGs/VSBYs possible
under heavier storms. Any activity will diminish after sunset.

Winds will be light and variable overnight, with river/valley FG
expected. BR with VSBYs down to 1-3 SM are currently in
KPKB/KCKB/KEKN TAF forecasts. Elsewhere confidence is low on any
FG/BR impacting TAF locales due to uncertainty in rainfall this
afternoon.

Expect another round of afternoon showers/storms on Friday with
any reductions due to shower/storm activity brief.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of showers/thunderstorms
this afternoon could. More widespread BR/FG is possible
dependent on what/where rainfall falls this afternoon and early
evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible on Saturday with scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Afternoon highs may approach record values at a few locations
through Friday. Below is a table of forecast and record highs.

        Forecast / Record High Temperatures
---------------------------------------------------

-             |    Thu, 8/29    |    Fri, 8/30    |
---------------------------------------------------
- Charleston  | 97 / 100 (1953) | 98 / 100 (1953) |
- Huntington  | 98 / 102 (1948) | 98 / 101 (1953) |
- Clarksburg  | 93 /  98 (1953) | 93 / 100 (1953) |
- Parkersburg | 96 /  99 (1953) | 97 / 100 (1953) |
- Beckley     | 89 /  94 (1953) | 88 /  95 (1953) |
- Elkins      | 90 /  93 (1993) | 90 /  93 (1993) |
---------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>009-
     013>018-025>027.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ086-087.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101-103.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JRM/JP
NEAR TERM...JRM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JRM

CLIMATE...JRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
350 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

KYZ101-103-OHZ086-087-WVZ005>009-013>018-025>027-300800-
Greenup-Boyd-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-
Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Logan-Boone-Clay-
350 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, portions of southeast Ohio, and portions of central,
northern, southern and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

The combination of heat and humidity could result in peak heat
index values up to 104 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The combination of heat and humidity could result in peak heat
index values in the lower 100s Friday afternoon. Additional heat
advisories could be possible.

Scattered thunderstorms on Saturday could be strong to severe with
damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

WVZ028>034-039-040-515>526-300800-
Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
350 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central,
northeast, northern, southeast and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms today could be strong to severe producing damaging
winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms on Saturday could be strong to severe with
damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ102-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>085-VAZ003-004-WVZ010-011-019-020-
024-300800-
Carter-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Jackson OH-Vinton-
Meigs-Dickenson-Buchanan-Pleasants-Tyler-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-
350 AM EDT Thu Aug 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, portions of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia, and
portions of northern and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The combination of heat and humidity could result in heat index
values in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The combination of heat and humidity could result in peak heat
index values in the upper 90s to the lower 100s Friday afternoon.
Heat advisories may be possible.

Scattered thunderstorms on Saturday could be strong to severe with
damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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