Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
229 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms are expected in advance of an area of low
pressure this afternoon and overnight, and again on Sunday in
the the wake of cold frontal passage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

At this hour the only activity on the map is a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over eastern Kentucky in an area of subtle H850 mass
convergence overcoming subsidence associated with a departing
shortwave trough. These will be moving into a less favorable
environment as convergence weakens somewhat offset by diurnal
heating. Rotating updrafts associated with the stronger cells could
allow them to maintain some level of strength over the next couple
hours despite the weakening environment with hail and perhaps some
locally damaging winds as the primary threats.

The bigger show as far as convective coverage should come with a
secondary shortwave arriving late this afternoon into tonight. This
activity should manifest as a broken line covering much of the
service area. Dynamics look fairly meager with perhaps 30KTs of deep
layer shear, but could see some gusty winds with cold pool
amalgamation. Locally heavy rainfall could yield some extremely
localized water issues, but given very dry antecedent conditions,
any surface runoff is not going to go very far from its origin.

Modest low level flow overnight should help limit dense fog
formation, instead favoring low stratus, but will code up at least
some patchy fog for most of the region with areas that receive more
than couple tenths of rainfall accumulation most likely to see it.

The associated cold front sweeps through Sunday morning with some
additional 'cool' (still upper 70s/lower 80s for highers)
instability showers and thunderstorms possible in its wake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

A reinforcing cold front will push through our area late Sunday into
Monday with showers and thunderstorms possible through late Monday
afternoon, precipitation should decrease from west to east by
early Monday evening.

After the frontal passage northwesterly flow begins ushering in some
gusty winds on Monday, especially across the mountains, then
somewhat cooler temperatures will prevail as highs in the mid to
upper 70's are expected across most of the area Monday with lows in
the mid 50's Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...

Drier conditions are expected from Tuesday onward to the end of the
extended period as a ridge builds over our area, allowing for
somewhat cooler temperatures to persist until late in the week.
Starting Friday above normal temperatures begin to filter in with
high's in the upper 80's to low 90's. Not much is expected in the
way of hazardous weather and I anticipate a warm but pleasant
week with dewpoints remaining in the low to mid 50's for the CWA
through the extended period before the above normal
temperatures arrive this coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

Subsidence in the wake of a departing trough should largely suppress
early afternoon convective development. Do have one lone cell
approaching eastern KY in an area of warm advection, but would
generally expect this to weaken as it moves into a less favorable
environment. Better convective coverage should come as a secondary
wave approaches late this afternoon into this evening. Have coded
primarily VCTS with this activity for now, with TSRA likely needed
for at least the western terminals late this afternoon as confidence
in timing increases. In the wake of precipitation in the evening and
overnight, expect a mix of IFR stratus and patchy fog heading into
Sunday morning, lifting into a stratocumulus deck in the wake of
cold frontal passage during the day Sunday.

Winds generally southwesterly under 10KTs, except gusty and erratic
near convection.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions associated with convection
could vary. Could have more fog than advertised overnight if
winds decouple.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible within showers and storms Sunday
afternoon and evening and again on Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...28/RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...28/RPY
LONG TERM...28/RPY
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
140 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-181745-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
140 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening. These storms could produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
331 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

OHZ066-067-172000-
Morgan OH-Perry OH-
331 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PERRY AND
NORTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 331 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shawnee, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
McConnelsville, Shawnee, Crooksville, Malta, Corning, Hemlock,
Rendville, and Eagleport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3976 8183 3966 8172 3956 8216 3964 8227
      3977 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 242DEG 27KT 3963 8217

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

11

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