Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Charleston, WV

951 
WGUS71 KRLX 250306
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1106 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

VAC027-250415-
/O.CON.KRLX.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-240725T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan VA-
1106 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM EDT THURSDAY 
FOR CENTRAL BUCHANAN COUNTY...

At 1106 PM EDT, doppler radar indicated thunderstorms had produced 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 3.5 inches of 
rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches are 
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by prior thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Grundy and Vansant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

Report flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll 
free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3725 8189 3722 8197 3718 8216 3724 8219
      3727 8211 3730 8190

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

GW

600 
WGUS71 KRLX 250415
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1215 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024

VAC027-250425-
/O.EXP.KRLX.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-240725T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Buchanan VA-
1215 AM EDT Thu Jul 25 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR CENTRAL BUCHANAN COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3727 8211 3730 8190 3725 8189 3722 8197
      3718 8216 3724 8219

$$

FMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
734 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers and storms continue through Thursday. Slow
moving storms may yield isolated high water issues. Drier this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A of 729 PM Wednesday...

Radar imagery shows isolated showers and thunderstorms
decreasing in coverage and intensity as they move over our
area. There could be a period of no precipitation early this
evening, but additional showers and storms, ahead of an
approaching cold front will move from the west later this
evening. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 125 PM Wednesday...

A very moist airmass characterized by precipitable water values in
the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range remains entrenched over the region. Modest
destabilization with filtered insolation is presently yielding
isolated to scattered convection across the region, somewhat more
focused by background ascent across SE OH and NW WV as the right rear
entrance region of a 100KT jet streak. Expect convection to continue
to fill in through this afternoon, especially in the vicinity of
this ascent, likely persisting well into the evening in this area.
Some localized high water issues are possible in any training
convection, especially over areas that saw some locally heavy
rainfall last night. On the whole though, most rainfall will be
beneficial.

Background ascent persists into the morning hours, but should see a
relatively lull in activity diurnally Thursday morning. With renewed
afternoon heating will see additional activity firing up Thursday
afternoon, with the best coverage in enhanced lift in the vicinity
of a slow moving cold front that crosses late morning into early
evening Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 207 PM Wednesday...

Frontal bndry will be pushing south and east through Thursday
evening and into Friday morning. With drier air filtering in and
loss of daytime heating, expect a rather quick ending of
showers/storms from NW to SE. Latest CAMs support this as well with
any activity quickly diminishing during the evening. There remains a
marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) for the area
Thursday. Any flooding would be localized and likely focused in
flood prone areas or locales that have seen a few inches of rainfall
over the past 72hrs.

At least some fog development is likely late Thursday night
into Friday morning and again late Friday night into Saturday
morning, but coverage looks patchy.

By Friday, the frontal bndry becomes stationary extending from MO
ESE to NC, which may allow for a few showers to linger in the
Southern Coalfields. Any rainfall amounts would be rather light.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 207 PM Wednesday...

In the wake of the front, sfc high pressure builds and moves from
the Great Lakes late week to the Middle Atlantic late weekend. This
will keep the area relatively dry on Saturday as middle level ridging
extends across the region. By late Sunday afternoon, the mid level
ridge will begin to breakdown with increasing moisture and an
approaching disturbance. POPs have trended up over the previous 24
hrs, but there remains some uncertainty as to the coverage and
timing. Based on NBM probabilities, Monday and Tuesday looks to have
the highest shower/storm chances.

Early and middle next week, a more amplified trough is likely to
develop across the eastern third of the CONUS. Multiple disturbances
look to pass through the region, which is in line with the NBM
increasing POPs in the extended. With the unsettled weather, daytime
highs look to remain in the middle and upper 80s, however there is
greater ensemble temp spreads in the NBM. This is likely due to
uncertainty with coverage of storms and cloudiness.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 726 PM Wednesday...

Afternoon convection will continue to diminish in coverage by
sunset. However, the atmosphere will continue unstable tonight
allowing for additional nocturnal showers or storms. Brief IFR
visibility conditions with gusty winds up to 22 knots can be
expected along any strong shower or storm. Coded TEMPO groups at PKB
and CKB for convection early in the period.

Guidance suggest low status deck forming across the western
foothills of the Appalachians overnight. Expect IFR/MVFR ceilings
with this low stratus deck across CRW, EKN, BKW, and CKB. There is
low confidence that these clouds could affect PKB and HTS at this
time. With outflow boundaries around and plenty of clouds expected,
dense fog may not develop as suggested by guidance. IFR low stratus
deck will become MVFR from 13-15Z Thursday morning before lifting to
VFR after 15Z.

Winds will generally be light from the southwest. However, a wind
shifts out of the northwest will follow behind a line of showers and
thunderstorms entering the northern portions of SE OH attm. Winds
will become near calm overnight though. Winds will become more
steady from the northwest behind the passing front on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and locations for showers and
thunderstorms may vary from forecast. Fog may develop overnight
where afternoon precipitation occurs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    L    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR also possible in morning fog/low stratus Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JRM/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
410 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-250815-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
410 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms today could contain heavy
downpours. The risk of flash flooding is generally low across the
area due to active drought conditions. However, locations that
receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall could see localized flash
flooding, particularly urbanized areas with poor drainage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday.
Some could contain heavy rainfall which could lead to localized flash
flooding for areas with poor drainage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

KYZ105-250130-
Lawrence-
800 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 2024

...CREEKS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH...

Heavy rain to the tune of 1 to 2.5 inches has fallen this evening
across portions of far southeast Lawrence County. Localized heavy
rain may persist over the next half hour or so, with isolated high
water issues possible in the typical low-lying trouble areas
throughout this evening. Do not drive your vehicle into areas where
water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow
your car to cross safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3797 8266 3795 8258 3793 8258 3793 8259
      3792 8259 3792 8260 3789 8260 3788 8261
      3791 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 167DEG 2KT 3792 8261

04