Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Charleston, WV

685 
WGUS71 KRLX 260852
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
452 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

WVC017-033-041-261130-
/O.CON.KRLX.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-240526T1130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Doddridge WV-Harrison WV-Lewis WV-
452 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 AM EDT THIS 
MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DODDRIDGE, SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON AND NORTH 
CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTIES...

At 452 AM EDT, Emergency management reported high water events 
across southern Harrison county. Although rainfall has ended, high 
water on roads and overflowing creeks and small streams will 
continue for few more hours. Therefore, the flash flood warning 
continues in effect until 730 AM. Flash flooding is already 
occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  West Milford, Avon, New Milton, Blandville and Smithburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Report flooding to the National Weather Service by calling toll 
free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3929 8082 3926 8040 3920 8031 3912 8048
      3916 8082

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

ARJ

448 
WGUS71 KRLX 261053
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
653 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

WVC017-033-041-261103-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FF.W.0033.000000T0000Z-240526T1130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Doddridge WV-Harrison WV-Lewis WV-
653 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN DODDRIDGE, 
SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON AND NORTH CENTRAL LEWIS COUNTIES...

Flood waters are receding. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3929 8082 3926 8040 3920 8031 3912 8048
      3916 8082

$$

JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
249 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms through Memorial Day weekend in response to a
cold front. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours
will be possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 248 AM Sunday...

Key Points:

 * Hot and humid today.
 * Enhanced risk for severe storms NE Kentucky through tonight.
 * Slight risk for severe storms rest of the area, except NE
   mountains through tonight.
 * Slight risk for excessive rainfall over the southern two
   thirds of the area through tonight.

Widespread river valley dense fog will gradually dissipate early
this morning.

Frontal boundary, oriented west to east across our north, lifts
north as a warm front this morning, leaving the area under a warm
sector of an approaching cold front. Winds increase from the
southwest, bringing strong moisture advection with boundary layer
theta-e values exceeding 340K by this afternoon. A mid level
shortwave crosses the area this afternoon, providing upper forcing
to enhance convection.

Local bufkit soundings show a tall/skinny CAPE signature with dry
air at the mid levels by this afternoon. Guidance suggest deep
layered shear will limited over most parts of the area, except far
west across NE KY where values of 50 to 60 knots are anticipated.
These ingredients will allow for strong to severe updrafts
/downdrafts, the strongest; farther west where the best dynamics
will be present. With PWATs increasing from 1.3 to 1.7 inches by
this evening, very heavy downpours are likely, some capable to
produce flash flooding. Hi-res CAMs suggest a strong line of
convection arriving to the Tri-state area (OH/KY/WV) around 3 PM
spreading east as some elements weaken. A second batch of
convection is forecasted right behind it, but it seems to weaken
as well as the reach NE KY and portions of the Mid Ohio valley.
However, strong to severe storms may be able to survive and
spread east further into WV with the passing of another upper
level shortwave around midnight as convective parameters become
more active, with deep layered shear increasing to 55 knots,
PWATs around 1.7 inches and CAPE about 1200 J/Kg.

SPC maintains an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms over NE
KY, a slight risk roughly across the rest of the area, except
for the northern mountains through tonight. Therefore, expecting
scattered to possibly numerous severe storms around the Tri-
State area this afternoon and evening, with damaging gusty wind,
large hail, and the possibility of tornadoes being the main
threats.

WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall across the
southern two thirds of the area, and a marginal risk across the
northern third. This translates to the possibility of very heavy
rain and associated flash flooding.

Despite clouds and convection expected, highs will manage to reach
the mid to upper 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 70s
across the higher elevations of our northeast mountains. Lows
tonight will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1150 AM Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms remain likely Sunday night and into Monday
morning with waves of shortwave energy approaching from the west.
The strength and timing of any thunderstorms overnight still remains
questionable. Most models show storms weakening as they approach
West Virginia from the west, likely due to a lack of instability.
Some thunderstorms may be capable of bringing damaging winds and
hail, particularly across northeast Kentucky and far southern Ohio,
where instability will be a little more favorable. Severe potential
is more questionable across West Virgina. Nonetheless, the
atmosphere will still have plenty of moisture with PWAT values
likely to be anywhere from 1.25-1.75 inches late Sunday night and
into Monday morning. Therefore, we are concerned about the threat of
flooding, especially in training showers/thunderstorms and locations
where the ground has been saturated from previous activity. The
Weather Prediction Center places much of the region in a slight risk
of excessive rainfall through 12Z Monday morning, which increases
our concern for potential high water issues.

A cold front will sweep through from the west Monday afternoon.
Ahead of the front will be scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Therefore, the potential for flooding will continue into Monday. The
Memorial Day holiday shouldn't be a complete washout, but it will be
a good idea to keep an eye to the sky and stay up to date with the
latest forecast. Mid-level drier air will funnel in from the west
behind the cold front Monday evening, which should help curb the
flooding threat.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Tuesday as
an upper-level low spins over the Northeast. The flooding threat for
Tuesday and Wednesday looks low at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1150 AM Saturday...

Showers will remain in the forecast Wednesday, but drier weather
should build into the area from Thursday onward as high pressure
expands into the middle Ohio Valley. Temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will be much cooler than what we have seen recently. Highs
will only be in the upper 60s in the mountains to the 70s in the
lowlands. Temperatures should gradually warm back into the 80s again
by next weekend as high pressure slides to the east and a southerly
flow returns.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...

Ongoing convection producing IFR/LIFR conditions at CKB and EKN
through at least 09Z. Once this convection moves east, IFR/LIFR
dense fog is expected to develop along river valleys to affect
mainly EKN, CKB, and PKB during from 09-12Z. Valley fog may be
too shallow to reach CRW and BKW. Any dense fog will quickly
dissipate by 12-13Z.

Increasing chances for strong to severe thunderstorms may result
in greater area coverage Sunday afternoon and evening. Periods
of IFR/LIFR conditions are expected along any convection that
manage to develop. In addition, strong to severe gusty winds,
large hail and localized heavy rain will be possible with
stronger storms. VFR conditions will prevail outside
convection.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of fog and its intensity may
vary for late tonight into Sunday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 05/26/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through early next
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
352 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085-VAZ004-WVZ007>011-014>020-025>034-039-040-
515>526-260800-
Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-Vinton-Meigs-Buchanan-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-
Ritchie-Doddridge-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-
Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
352 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
portions of southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated severe storms could produce strong gusty winds or hail this
afternoon and evening. Localized flash flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday.
Localized flash flooding remains a concern as rounds of rain
continue to impact the area early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ083-086-087-VAZ003-WVZ005-006-013-024-260800-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Jackson OH-Gallia-Lawrence OH-
Dickenson-Wayne-Cabell-Lincoln-Mingo-
352 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, portions of southwest Virginia, and portions of
southern and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated severe storms could produce strong gusty winds or hail this
afternoon and evening. Localized flash flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered to possibly numerous severe thunderstorms are possible on
Sunday. Isolated severe storms may again develop on Monday. Localized
flash flooding remains a concern as rounds of rain continue to
impact the area early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1259 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Grafton                 39.34N 80.03W
05/25/2024                   Taylor             WV   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Webster Pike. Time Estimated
            from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
102 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Flemington              39.27N 80.13W
05/25/2024                   Taylor             WV   911 Call Center

            Tree down reported on Simpson Road near
            Flemington.

&&

JLB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
103 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Bridgeport              39.29N 80.25W
05/25/2024                   Harrison           WV   911 Call Center

            Tree down on West Olive St. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
107 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Enterprise        39.42N 80.29W
05/25/2024                   Harrison           WV   911 Call Center

            Tree down reported on Pine Bluff Road.

&&

JLB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
138 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 AM     Flash Flood      5 W Grafton             39.34N 80.11W
05/26/2024                   Taylor             WV   911 Call Center

            Flooding reported on Beverly Pike.

&&

JLB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
251 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 AM     Flash Flood      4 NNW Flemington        39.32N 80.16W
05/26/2024                   Taylor             WV   Public

            Flooding reported along Meadland Road and
            Morrow Cross Road.

&&

JLB