Winter Storm Warning 8, NWS Reno, NV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
328 AM PST Sun Mar 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Conditions in the Sierra will be treacherous through tonight,
with life-threatening travel conditions in snow and blowing snow.
Additional chances for snow showers will continue into Wednesday,
especially for the Sierra north of US-50. Drier conditions appear
to return towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The center of circulation associated with this lingering storm
system is still just off-shore this morning, as seen in the GOES
infrared channel. The attendant jet is also hanging overhead,
keeping the winds howling along the Sierra crest. These gusty winds
will persist through early Monday morning, keeping potential for
whiteout conditions to continue despite lighter snowfall rates. For
this reason, the blizzard conditions may persist through early
Monday. We will have a bit of a break on Monday from adding more
snow, but by overnight Monday into Tuesday a splitting low takes aim
toward the southern California coast. The 250 mb jet looks to split
near the northern California coast, sending the upper level low
diving south while a weaker area of the jet splits off near the OR
border. This weaker energy will likely keep snow accumulations
mostly north of US-50.

REST OF THIS SYSTEM:

* WINDS: As mentioned the Sierra ridges are going to continue to see
  gusts exceeding 100 mph at least through early Monday morning.
  This, along with the light, fluffy snow character will keep
  blizzard conditions going into the early Monday morning hours for
  the Greater Lake Tahoe Basin area. Winds will also be gusty for
  western Nevada valleys, with up to 35 mph gusts possible through
  the evening tonight. Any snow that has not been cleared may be
  blown around through tonight, which could reduce visibility.
  Regardless of snow falling or the intensity of the snowfall, gusty
  winds are capable of lofting snow from the ground.

* SNOW/LIQUID TOTALS: Along I-80, Donner Pass could see up to an
  additional 18 inches of snow, while the western shores of the
  Tahoe Basin may gather another 12 inches. On the eastern shores
  of Lake Tahoe, additional snow totals through early Monday will
  range 1-3 inches. Reno-Carson-Minden may see 0.5-1" with a
  possible burst of up to 2" under heavier convective snow
  showers. The majority of the snow will be from US-50 to the
  north with Mammoth Lakes maybe adding another 1-4 inches. Liquid
  equivalent totals will bring another 1-1.5 inches to the Sierra
  crest north of US-50, only a couple hundredths for leeside
  valleys and a few tenths up to a quarter of an inch for Mono
  County.

NEXT ROUND:

* WINDS: Late Monday into Tuesday winds will pickup again ahead of
  the next system slated to arrive. Ridges will feel the effects
  first with gusts 80-90 mph by early Tuesday morning. By Tuesday
  afternoon the  southwest gusts will have mixed into the valleys,
  bringing gusts of 20-30 mph. The splitting nature of this jet will
  keep much of the energy to the north, although winds may increase
  over Mono County ridges in association with the southern portion
  of the splitting jet.

* SNOW/LIQUID TOTALS: This system will start to split before it
  arrives overhead, which will keep the majority of new snowfall
  north of US-50, and in the Sierra. Some spillover will be
  possible, but this is not as efficient as the recent storm. With
  the transient nature of splitting storms, totals will be worked
  out in future updates.

HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

Snow will continue for the area, but will begin to wrap up for
western Nevada valley terminals around 06Z Monday. Winds will remain
elevated along ridges and into the Tahoe Basin, so blizzard
conditions are possible for KMMH, KTRK and KTVL through 12Z Monday.
LLWS and turbulence will remain through 12Z Monday for all
terminals, with mountain obscuration possible near Sierra terminals
through the same time frame.

Early Monday we have a brief break in the action before winds
increase again along ridges to 90 kts by Monday evening. Northern
terminals KTVL, KTRK could see returning snow showers as early as
midday Monday.

HRICH

&&

.AVALANCHE...

* CHANGES: The Blizzard Warning for Mono County is allowed to
  expire as a majority of the heavy snowfall has ended.

* WINDS: Expect sustained southwest winds 30-50 mph with gusts 50+
  mph on exposed mid slopes and 60-80 mph with gusts 100+ mph over
  ridges to continue for the Sierra through Monday morning. Winds
  will then subside for Monday.

* SNOW TOTALS: Additional 6-12" today with locally up to 18" on
  the crests occurring in the greater Lake Tahoe area. Mono County
  will see less today, with totals of 2-6". Typical rates of
  1-2"/hr.

* SNOW RATIOS: Ratios will become 14:1-17:1. The snow character
  will become drier and result in significant drifting of the
  snow.

* LIQUID AMOUNTS: Liquid equivalent totals will bring another
  1-1.5 inches to the Sierra crest north of US-50. Lesser amounts
  of less than 0.50" expected into Mono County.

- McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Blizzard Warning until 10 AM PST this morning NVZ002.

     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST early this morning NVZ003.

CA...Blizzard Warning until 4 AM PST early this morning CAZ071.

     Blizzard Warning until 10 AM PST this morning CAZ072-073.

&&

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