Wind Advisory 1, NWS Reno, NV

698 
WWUS75 KREV 030942
NPWREV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
142 AM PST Wed Jan 3 2024

NVZ001-031045-
/O.CAN.KREV.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240103T1200Z/
Mineral and Southern Lyon Counties-
Including the cities of Mina, Smith Valley, Hawthorne, Yerington,
and Schurz
142 AM PST Wed Jan 3 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Gusty winds up to 35 mph remain possible early this morning.

$$

BB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
251 AM PST Tue Jan 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A storm arrives today into Wednesday with another colder,
stronger storm projected for the weekend. Be sure to consider the
incoming snow with regards to any travel and recreation plans
this week. Additional colder storms are possible into the second
week of the month.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We will contend with some fog in areas such as Susanville-Honey Lake-
Pyramid Lake through early morning. An incoming mid-to high-level
cloud deck will arrive overnight, acting as an insulating blanket
to warm the upper levels and begin to erode fog at the surface.
Sierra and Carson Valleys may also see a return of foggy overnight
conditions.

The clouds streaming in are part of our next weather system to
arrive today. Southerly winds will increase this morning bringing
gusts 40-55 mph to ridges in the Sierra, shortly to be followed
by light showers arriving with an initial moisture band. Things
will dry out temporarily into the afternoon, before the main event
arrives tonight. The main band of snow that arrives late this evening
will come along with snow levels tumbling to around 4000' or
lower into early Wednesday. For this round, intensity of showers
will increase, allowing some snowfall rates to reach 1-2 inches
per hour from approximately 9 pm through 3 am along western slopes
up to the crest. Roads may become slick and snow-covered in areas
that receive higher snow totals. Check your latest local road
conditions at nvroads.com or quickmap.dot.ca.gov before you
travel. Winds will also increase across Sierra ridgelines
overnight with gusts potentially exceeding 80 mph.

Snow totals for this first system will largely be found in the
western slopes of the Sierra, with spillover limited for western
Nevada valleys. Along the crest we see a 70-80% chance for 12 inches
of snow, while the Tahoe Basin will see a 40-50% chance for 4-6
inches. We could see showers make it's way to leeside valleys
Wednesday with a potential for snow to valley floors. Anything
that does fall in the Greater Reno-Carson-Minden areas will be
light. There is a stronger signal that a deepening trough will
allow the development of a low to the east of the Sierra. This
would provide greater chances for snow showers along a north/south
line from around US-95 and eastward. This frontogenetical setup
could provide an opportunity to see a regenerative boost to snow
showers across Pershing-Churchill- Mineral counties, a potential
"boom" snow scenario for Wednesday.

Wednesday afternoon winds will shift out of the north, bringing in
colder breezes as we say goodbye to one system and hello to
another. Someone seems to have left the storm door open!

The chilly north-northwest winds for Thursday will be lighter as we
clear out for a quick break. Then early Friday we say hello to the
next initial band to bring more chances for snow showers back into
our lives. By late Friday the first bit of this system will be well
out over the Great Basin, but wait, there's more! The main action
arrives Saturday with gusts on the ridges of 65-75 mph and more
snow. Sierra crest could see a 50-70% chance for up to 18+ inches of
snow. Tahoe Basin is getting in there with 40% chance for 12 inches
through Sunday. While this storm's placement and orientation
should offer more spillover, any variation could affect the
locations of the best spillover opportunities.

So I mentioned the storm door hanging open, and the longer term
outlooks suggest it could stay that way awhile. This forecaster has
seen some real variance in model guidance of storms season. So far,
this season has left us feeling a bit 'punked' by solutions all over
the place, so confidence will remain low until solutions agree a bit
more.

HRICH

&&

.AVIATION...

Freezing fog and low stratus may bring periods of overnight and
early AM IFR conditions with terrain obscuration possible for KTRK,
KMEV, KCXP and a lesser patchy fog at KRNO.

VFR conditions will return for this morning, although clouds will
thicken through the day.

A storm arriving late today with increasing southerly flow and
precipitation. LLWS and turbulence are possible 03-12z Wednesday.

HRICH

&&

.AVALANCHE...

Two storms are on track to bring wind and snow to the Sierra: (1)
Tuesday PM - Wednesday and (2) Friday - Sunday.

Storm #1: Light precipitation arrives in the Sierra early
Tuesday. Localized 1-2"/hr snow rates will be possible along the
Sierra crest between 9pm Tuesday (Tahoe Basin) and 4am Wednesday
(eastern Sierra). Snow ratios will be 15-16:1 for this first
storm. Southwest to west wind gusts will be around 40 to 70 mph
near the Tahoe Basin and 50 to 80 mph for Mono County.

Forecast snow totals for Tahoe 7kft-8kft: 2-6"
for Tahoe 8kft and above: 6-12"
for Mono 8kft-10kft: 6-10"
for Mono 8kft and above: 8-14"

Storm #2: This storm is projected to be colder and stronger with
the potential for higher snow ratios, stronger west-southwest
winds, and higher snow totals. The Sierra has a 50-70% chance for
18+" of snow with a 40% chance for 12" into the Tahoe Basin.

-Edan/Heather

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM PST
     Thursday NVZ002.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM PST
     Thursday CAZ072-073.

&&