Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
340 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface front will dissipate over the mountains this evening.
Tropical Depression Four is expected to affect Florida throughout
the weekend, then strengthen as it tracks slowly northeast just off
the Georgia and South Carolina coast through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 333 PM Saturday...

...A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of central NC until 12
AM Sunday...

...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for those along and west
of US-1 until 9 PM tonight...

As expected, a broken line of thunderstorms has developed along a
sfc trough extending from Anson county northeast through Person
county. Additional convection along outflow via sea breeze
convection has pushed up into the southern Coastal Plain.  A few
storms have demonstrated quite explosive updrafts and consequently
strong damaging downdrafts at the sfc. Additionally, some stronger
storms have shown periods of organization/mid-level rotation.
Additional organization appears likely for stronger storms this
afternoon and evening (HREF helicity swaths peak over the Piedmont)
as the main line progresses east through the remainder of central
NC. While rotation will likely be notable on radar in some storms
the rest of today, weak low-level flow and a lack of backing winds
near the sfc should preclude any tornado threat.  However, any
stronger organized storm will be capable of continued damaging wind
gusts especially over the area between the Triad and the Triangle
where DCAPE is >1000 J/kg.

While flash flooding has yet to occur with today's convection,
additional south to north training of cells appear likely through
this evening. Thus, will maintain the Flood Watch through midnight
tonight.

The initial wave of convection will push east of our area through
later this evening. However, additional convection will likely
blossom across the western/southern areas later tonight and possibly
into the overnight period as additional mid-level perturbations
swing east. Thus, the flooding potential will persist through
midnight tonight.

Overnight lows will dip into the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM Saturday...

Upper level trough will continue to progress east across the Mid-
Atlantic region Sunday and shift off the coast by Monday. At the
surface a frontal boundary will slowly move off the foothills and
into Central NC by Sunday afternoon/evening. This will generate some
lift across the area and combined with ML low level CAPE ranging
from 1000-1500J/kg some showers and storms are expected to develop.
But, looking at shear model guidance there is very limited shear in
the afternoon, thus only general thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the region. Best chance is expected to be south and
east of the Triad, but a few pop up storms cant be ruled out. As the
frontal boundary moves southeast late Sunday night PoPs are expected
to diminish from NE to SE overnight. There is a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall for areas south and east if the Triangle.
Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 80s for highs and low
in the lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of  400 PM Friday...

...Tropical Depression 4 is expected to become Tropical Storm Debby
and may bring a mid-week risk of heavy rain to central NC,
especially along and east of US 1...

While the Tropical Cycle is expected to make landfall along the Big
Bend in northern Florida early Monday morning, a frontal boundary
tied to an upper level trough will be trying to push across the Mid-
Atlantic region. Mostly dry conditions are expected across much of
the Piedmont Monday but moisture along the coast is expected to
slowly creep into the region afternoon resulting in afternoon
showers and storms especially in the Sandhills and Coastal Plains.
With ample tropical moisture moving into the region from the south,
heavy downpours will be the main hazard as WPC has the SE portions
of the CWA in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and far
southeastern areas (closer to the coast) in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall and flash flooding. By Tuesday morning the
cyclone is forecast to be shifting off the FL/GA coast and will be
interacting still with the upper level trough to the north and
Bermuda high to the east and another high pressure system centered
over the four corners region expanding into the lower MS region.
These features keep the cyclone from make any forward motion
progress Tuesday and Wednesday. But as little progress is made,
portions of Central NC is expected to begin seeing some impacts from
the cyclone especially in the southern and eastern portions of NC.
Have PoPs increasing through the day Wednesday with higher pops in
the SE and lower in the NW Piedmont region. Uncertainty remains from
mid to late week some models track have it slowly moving inland over
SC then moving north over Central NC bringing multiple days of
rainfall and convection across the region. More details can be found
at hurricanes.gov for the cyclones long range forecast and key
messages. Kept temperatures with highs in the mid-upper 80 and low
in the 70s, with the week ending cooler with lows possibly in the
mid/upper  60s after the system finally clears the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 123 PM Saturday...

24 hour TAF period: Periods of sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds
are likely this afternoon and evening as convection moves across
central NC. Additional showers and storms may be possible into the
overnight period especially near KFAY.   Otherwise, MVFR/IFR stratus
is likely to blossom across all of central NC early Sunday morning
and persist through mid morning.  Additional showers and storms will
then be possible Sunday afternoon, mostly likely near KRWI and KFAY.

Looking ahead: Fog/low stratus will be possible again Mon morning.
The weather and flight conditions for Mon through Wed remain
somewhat uncertain and will be dependent upon the track/timing of
what is currently Tropical Depression 4. Fog/low stratus will be
possible each morning, while shower/storm chances for now will be
highest south and east (KFAY and KRWI) and increase from Mon to Wed.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 3: KGSO: 76/2006 KRDU: 79/1935 KFAY: 78/2006

August 4: KGSO: 76/2011 KRDU: 78/1935 KFAY: 78/1928

August 5: KGSO: 76/2006 KRDU: 77/2022

August 6: KGSO: 75/2007 KRDU: 77/1930 KFAY: 79/2007

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield/Luchetti
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Luchetti/KC
CLIMATE...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
229 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084-041830-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
229 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again on Sunday,
with the primary threat of heavy rainfall and localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-078-088-089-041830-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
229 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ077-085-086-041830-
Harnett-Scotland-Hoke-
229 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 592 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop again on Sunday,
with the primary threat of heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
The threat for excessive rainfall and localized flooding may persist
through mid week as a tropical cyclone moves slowly over the
Southeast US and Carolinas. Check hurricanes.gov for latest updates
on the tropical system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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