Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
702 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of cold fronts will move across central NC tonight. High
pressure will follow and build across and offshore the Southeast
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Thursday...

A srn stream shortwave trough, and preceding corridor of lift/strong
height falls aloft (~100-150 meters/12 hr at 500 mb), will lift newd
and across the srn Appalachians and Middle Atlantic through 12Z Fri.
An accompanying, 70-75 kt swly speed max evident on the BMX and FFC
RAOBs this morning will strengthen to around 90 kts across and
offshore the South Atlantic states through this evening. Meanwhile,
a series of nrn stream impulses will dig across the MO and mid MS
Valleys, during which time a mid/upr-level cyclone will develop and
deepen across MI.

At the surface, a pair of frontal systems were evident in 19Z
surface observational data. The first included a 994 mb, srn stream
frontal wave over ern TN (near KMOR). A cold front, and surrounding
area of partial sunshine and strong diabatic heating, stretched from
that wave sewd across ern GA and n-cntl FL, with low-level moisture
advection and surface dewpoints in the 60s F ahead of it. Scattered
deep convection will likely continue to develop in this zone of
convergence and destabilization from the Savannah Basin vicinity nwd
across the w-cntl Carolinas through sunset, with a peak in coverage
and intensity particularly across the NC Foothills, wrn Piedmont,
and perhaps wrn Sandhills, generally between 22Z-02Z. Nocturnal
weakening with time and ewd extent should then occur across the ern
Sandhills and Coastal Plain through 03-04Z. This convection will
pose the greatest severe weather risk in cntl NC, as it occurs in a
strongly-sheared environment characterized by elongated hodographs
that are forecast to include some clockwise curvature in the lowest
1 to 2 km, and straight to slight counterclockwise-curvature through
the mid/upr-levels. The environment may consequently become
conducive for the development and organization of a few supercells
in this regime, including both anticyclonic and cyclonically-
rotating ones. While both would pose a risk of damaging wind gusts
and hail, an isolated tornado will be favored in the cyclonically-
rotating ones.

Meanwhile, a more-dominant, nrn stream cyclone centered around 993
mb along the IN/OH border at 19Z, will continue to deepen while
tracking across the lwr Great Lakes tonight. Its trailing cold
front, which extended across the lwr OH and TN Valley, will move ewd
and across cntl NC with an accompanying band of weaker showers,
generally between 05-09Z.

Even outside of convection, momentum transfer from very strong wind
fields just above the surface will continue to result in non-
convective wind gusts into the upr 20s to mid 30s kts in both the
warm advective regime ahead of the cold fronts through this evening
and in the wly, post-frontal regime overnight-Fri morning, with the
latter ones accompanied by temperatures cooling into the 50s
through Fri morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 PM Thursday...

The strong trough over the Great Lakes region will track up into the
northern Mid-Atlantic. At this happens, a vigorous shortwave will
pivot around the base of the trough and move over central to eastern
NC in the afternoon and evening. Ridging will build into the
midsection of the country come Sat morning. At the surface, the
surface low over the Great Lakes will rotate up into Canada with
time. While the cold front will have moved offshore in the
afternoon, a very tight pressure gradient between the low over the
Great Lakes and a surface high near LA will bring gusty WSW winds
from the morning to evening hours. These gusts appear to range from
30 to 35 mph, but we would not be surprised to see some brief
isolated gusts to 40 mph or higher given steep lapse rates with CAA.
Highs will look to top out near normal in the low to perhaps mid 70s
(highest in our SE zones). As the shortwave lifts through in the
afternoon to early evening, isolated to scattered showers will
develop and track west to east across the region. A few isolated
cells could produce some thunder and even mix down some higher gusts
of 45+ mph, but this would be rather isolated in coverage. Any
shower coverage should taper off after sunset as the shortwave lifts
out.

Forecast soundings show westerly winds staying elevated Fri night
between 10-20 mph as the pressure gradient remains in place and
further CAA builds into the Carolinas. With that, lows will only dip
into the mid to upper 40s to even some low 50s over the Sandhills.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 225 PM Thursday...

After a weak surface trough moves through early Saturday, bringing
wind gusts up to 25-30 mph, the weather through the extended
forecast should be dominated by high pressure over the southeastern
United States. While an upper level low moving over the Great Lakes
should bring some high cloud cover Tuesday and Wednesday, skies
through the period should generally be mostly clear. While highs
will be around 70 on Saturday, highs jump into the 80s on Sunday and
persist through the week - some isolated 90 degree values can't be
ruled out for Thursday. Similarly, lows Saturday night will be in
the mid and upper 40s, then be in the 50s and 60s through the rest
of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 702 PM Thursday...

MVFR ceilings continue this afternoon as stronger storms continue to
grow over the NC Foothills.  These storms will likely approach
KINT/KGSO the next several hours and will likely create temporaily
gusty conditions and possibly further reductions in aviation
categories. The likelihood of storms reaching KRDU/KFAY/KRWI is more
uncertain, but generally expecting weakening with time and eastward
extent. The bulk of the rain should push north of the area by 03Z.
Another band of scattered showers and associated MVFR ceilings will
accompany a passing cold front later tonight. This will be followed
by gusty wly winds and clearing conditions into Friday morning.

Outlook: Widely scattered showers and storms and associated brief
visibility restrictions will move across cntl NC late Fri afternoon
through early evening. This convection may locally enhance already
strong and gusty wly surface winds that will continue, strongest
during the daytime, through Saturday. VFR conditions will otherwise
continue through the middle of next week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...Luchetti/MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
832 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

NCZ008>011-025>028-041>043-077-078-085-086-088-089-130045-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
832 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A level one of five risk of severe thunderstorms will result ahead
of a powerful low pressure system through approximately 10 PM.
Damaging
wind gusts will pose the primary threat, although hail and an
isolated tornado will also be possible.

Additionally, wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph, isolated up to 45
mph, will also continue even away from showers and thunderstorms
through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph, isolated up to 45 mph, are
expected both Friday and Saturday. Additionally, scattered showers
and thunderstorms may produce locally stronger gusts to near 50 mph
Friday afternoon and early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ007-021>024-038>040-073>076-083-084-130045-
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-
832 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 106 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

A level one of five risk of severe thunderstorms will result ahead
of a powerful low pressure system through approximately 10 PM.
Damaging
wind gusts will pose the primary threat, although hail and an
isolated tornado will also be possible.

Additionally, wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph, isolated up to 45
mph, will also continue even away from showers and thunderstorms
through
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Wind gusts between 30 and 40 mph, isolated up to 45 mph, are
expected both Friday and Saturday. Additionally, scattered showers
and thunderstorms may produce locally stronger gusts to near 50 mph
Friday afternoon and early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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