Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably strong upper level trough and attendant cold front
approaching from the northwest will move gradually eastward through
the region today through Monday. A cooler and less humid air mass
will settle into the area from Monday night through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Sunday...

...There remains a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms from
Raleigh south and east this afternoon and evening...

...There is also a risk for Isolated Pockets of Heavy Rain and Flash
flooding along and east of US 1...

An unseasonably strong(~3 S.D. below normal)amplifying upper-level
trough will dig SEWD into the region through tonight and through the
day on Monday. At the surface, a pre-frontal sfc trough which has
drifted east into the western Piedmont, will get overtaken by an
accompanying cold front, that's currently making it's way through
eastern TN and KY, during the evening and overnight hours.

Not much has changed in the thinking of the forecast and severe
threat later today. An agitated cu field INVOF the pre-frontal is
appearing ripe for some convection. Meanwhile, we are seeing
thunderstorm activity getting underway over the mtns.

Strong daytime heating, featuring afternoon highs in the mid/upper
80s north to lower 90s, has led to development of moderate to strong
destabilization area-wide, maximized over the Sandhills and southern
coastal plain. Scattered showers and storms are expected to become
widespread and move east into the western Piedmont between 18-21z.
Thereafter, convection will have a propensity to become better
organized as the storms progress eastward into the central Piedmont
and western Sandhills between 20-00z, and then across eastern
Sandhills and coastal plain counties between 23-03z. Deep layer
shear of 30-35 kts will favor multi-cellular severe threat, with
damaging winds the primary threat. The severe threat appears
greatest between 4 to 10 pm.

Additionally, given recent wetness and with area streams and creeks
still running high, the convective downpours could also lead to some
instances of flash flooding, especially in poor-drainage and urban
areas.

Bulk of rain and convection will exit east of the area between at or
before midnight with mostly dry conditions thereafter. Areas of fog
and/or /stratus are possible, mainly across coastal plain, just
ahead the cold front moving through the area. Lows ranging from mid
60s north to lower 70s SE.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

Aloft, while the longwave trough sits over the region, a s/w
disturbance will move through the trough and over central NC Mon
aft/eve. At the surface, the pre-frontal trough will remain over the
area Mon, while the effective cold front moves in from the northwest
during the day. The cold front should push quickly through the area
Mon evening, with the cooler, drier air filtering in behind it Mon
night. Highs should be in the mid (NW) to upper (SE) 80s, with lows
generally in the low 60s NW to upper 60s SE. Ahead of the front,
PWATs should range from 1.5 NW to 1.8 east and SE. MUCAPE will
generally peak in the 1000-1500 J/Kg range, with effective shear in
the 20-30 kts range Mon aft/eve. The SPC has most of central NC in a
Marginal Risk for severe weather Mon, with the primary threat of
isolated severe wind gusts during the afternoon/early evening,
generally along the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

Troughing over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced with a piece of
northern stream energy by Tues morning which will act to kick a
compact shortwave and lingering mid-level moisture from the Mid-
Atlantic into the Northeast by Tues morning. Convergent mid-level
flow on the backside of the longwave trough will direct subsidence
and a pocket of very dry mid-level air over through the Ohio Valley
and into Mid-Atlantic by Wed morning; persisting through much of the
work week. At the surface this translates to an unseasonably strong
area of pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley slowly sliding
east over and just off the Mid-Atlantic coast ridging through the
southern Appalachians and into the Southeast into the weekend.

The result of the above pattern will be a prolonged period of fall-
like conditions through the work week with highs in the low/mid 80s
(equivalent of mid-September) and lows falling into the low 60s
(equivalent to mid/late September). Given the clear skies overnight
and surface high pressure nearly overhead favoring strong
radiational cooling overnight, low/mid 50s may be possible in the
Piedmont outside of urban areas. Some isolated shower/storm activity
may be possible towards the coast edging into Sampson County by the
weekend as an inverted trough axis hedges near the coast and mid 60s
dew points return to the far southeast, but other than that, expect
dry conditions through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 135 PM Sunday...

The approach of a strong upper level trough and accompanying cold
front into the area will bring a chance of scattered to numerous
showers and storms to all TAF sites through the evening. At KGSO and
KINT, 21-24z is the most likely timeframe that associated sub-VFR
restrictions are possible. Meanwhile, at KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI, 23-
03z, is the most likely period for storms and restrictions.

In the wake of the exiting convection, models suggest the potential
for some sub-VFR ceilings in fog and/or stratus INVOF of the far
eastern TAF sites(KRWI and KFAY) between 08 to 12z Mon. Otherwise
VFR conditions overnight with winds veering around to westerly and
then NWLY as the cold front crosses the area.

Looking beyond 18z Mon: Scattered showers and storms are expected
again Monday afternoon and evening as the upper trough continues
move through the area. VFR conditions should return Mon night, with
predominately VFR conditions through the upcoming work week and
drier and cooler air encompasses much of the Eastern US.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...KCP
LONG TERM...Swiggett
AVIATION...CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
333 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-191945-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
333 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 635 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

There is a risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
The main threat is damaging wind.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Monday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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