River Flood Warning 55, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will track east across the region today, then move
just offshore tonight. A moist NE flow will develop tonight and
continue Tuesday. A cold front will finally push east across the
region mid-week, bringing clearing skies and lower humidities.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 PM Monday...

A decaying mid/upper low currently centered over SW WV will move NE
into the northern Mid-Atlantic through tonight as it devolves into
an open wave. PW values remain above normal across central NC (in
the 1.5 to 1.9 inch range), but this moisture is fairly shallow, as
water vapor imagery depicts ample dry air in the mid and upper
levels across central NC. At the surface, broad weak low pressure
currently centered the western Carolinas will move slowly east into
central and eastern NC, gradually deepening as it does so. A
quasistationary boundary extending to its east across southern NC
should slowly shift northward through tonight. Decent clearing has
occurred this afternoon, which when combined with rich low-level
moisture (dew points in the upper-60s to mid-70s) is resulting in
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, highest in the SE, which is where visible
satellite imagery shows some cu development.

Weak perturbations rotating around the base of the mid/upper low
combined with the moist and marginally unstable air mass are
resulting in some clusters of showers moving E/NE across central NC,
and this will generally continue through early evening. While no
lightning is being observed so far, there may be enough instability
for a few isolated storms especially SE. Don't expect any convection
to get too deep given the dry air and weak lapse rates in the mid
levels. The showers have been exhibiting some signs of mid-level
rotation at times, but 0-1 km shear is quite low (around 10 kts or
less) according to SPC mesoanalysis given the minimal low-level
flow. Still, forecast soundings do indicate some veering in the
lowest 1 or 2 km. There is also a belt of 35-45 kt SW winds at H5 at
the base of the mid/upper low, which would be sufficient for storm
organization. Will continue to monitor for an isolated tornado or
damaging wind threat, especially in the east and near the surface
boundary, which is where SPC has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for
severe storms.

WPC also has all of central NC in a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for
excessive rainfall through tonight, with a slight (level 2 of 4)
risk in VA that extends into our far NE counties. The best threat
should be in our east where total amounts of a half inch to an inch
are expected on average, but locally higher amounts are possible
where any storms develop, as they would be fairly slow moving. The
12z HREF shows decent neighborhood probabilities exceeding 1 inch in
an hour late this afternoon and early evening there. So localized
flash flooding can't be ruled out, mainly in urban and poor drainage
areas. The marginal instability and relatively high FFGs in the
east will be limiting factors.

Any precipitation chances will move north with the boundary tonight,
but some showers may linger in the far NE as a deformation band
potentially sets up in SE VA. NNE flow on the backside of the
surface low will bring in more fog and low stratus late tonight and
early tomorrow morning from NE to SW. Lows will remain quite mild,
in the mid-to-upper-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

A surface low will be positioned over NE NC and SE VA Tue morning.
The surface low will track east and offshore by the afternoon to
early evening hours. Behind it, northerly flow will ensue for the
evening and overnight period. Aloft, a trough will be over the lower
Mid-Atlantic region, with its axis stretching into the southern
Appalachians. Like Mon, there will be the chance of showers and a
few storms in the afternoon and early evening. Activity should be
more isolated to widely scattered compared to Mon, with best chances
across our Coastal Plain counties and the NE Piedmont in closer
proximity to the surface low. Instability is forecast to range from
250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Shear is also projected to be weaker, around
25 kts of 0-6 km shear, while 0-1 and 0-3 km shear is much lower
than the past several days. As such, we are not expecting any severe
threat. As for high temperatures, we'll see lots of cloud cover,
especially the northern sections of our CWA. Highs close to the VA
border will only reach the lower 70s, with lower 80s across the
south. Widespread low stratus will build back in Tue night with the
NE flow, though dewpoints will lower into the lower 60s. This will
favor overnight lows in the low to mid 60s, still well above average
for early October.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
As of 237 PM Monday...

...Mostly dry through the Weekend...

...Above Normal Temperatures will persist until the passage of a
cold front over the weekend...

...Closely Monitoring the Tropics/GOM...

In the wake of the exiting shortwave trough, heights will increase
aloft/subsidence as subtropical ridging amplifies over the SE US to
close out the work week. Downstairs, weak sfc high pressure will
extend over the area, with the associated NELY low-level flow will
result in less humid conditions with BL dewpoints in the 60-65F
range. Above normal temperatures will persist.  Highs ranging from
mid/upper 70s north to lower/mids 80s. Lows 60 to 65.

A moisture starved northern stream trough and associated cold front
tries to link up with some southern stream energy and moisture as it
moves through the area over Saturday. Ensemble guidance suggests non-
zero chances for rain as it advances east through the area. The more
exciting news is the arrival of less humid and cooler air into the
area by Sunday and into early next week.

A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is being monitored for
tropical development. There is currently a medium chance for a
tropical system to form and move into the GOM over the next several
days. At this time, any impacts across the SE US, either direct or
indirect, would likely occur early next week, highly dependent on
timing/amplification of a northern stream trough and attendant cold
front diving SE into the Eastern US.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM Monday...

24 hour TAF period: Scattered MVFR ceilings continue across central
NC, with broken to overcast VFR ceilings up to about 10 kft for much
of the rest of the region. Scattered to locally numerous showers
will continue into the early evening, which may result in brief MVFR
ceilings and MVFR or IFR visibilities. While no lightning is
currently observed, we are destabilizing enough that a few isolated
storms can't be ruled out in the south and east especially around
FAY. Some showers may continue through the overnight hours in the
far NE including at RWI, with dry conditions elsewhere. Widespread
low stratus and fog are expected to develop starting NE in the late
evening, spreading SW through the overnight hours. This will result
in IFR ceilings and visibilities, with LIFR even possible.
Visibilities will improve to VFR by mid morning, but ceilings will
be slower to improve, with largely MVFR by late morning and early
afternoon.

Looking beyond 18Z Tuesday: More scattered showers and isolated
storms are expected on Tuesday afternoon, with the best chance in
the NE. While the SW should scatter to VFR by late afternoon,
IFR/MVFR ceilings may linger in the NE through the whole day. While
no precipitation is expected for the remainder of the period,
some fog and low stratus will be possible each early morning.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Kren
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...Danco

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
142 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

NCZ007-021>025-038>040-073>076-083>086-011745-
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-
Chatham-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
142 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of excessive rainfall today
into this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ008>011-026>028-041>043-077-078-088-089-011745-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wake-Johnston-
Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
142 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of excessive rainfall and
severe storms into the early evening. Locally damaging winds and an
isolated tornado are possible with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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