Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
538 PM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool front crossing the area this afternoon with TSRA
  expected over far northern sections of CWA thru this evening.

- It will snow at the summit of Pikes Peak with some light accums.

- Much cooler tomorrow with showers and isold TSRA across a good
  part of the region.

- Warming trend for the weekend with at and above seasonal
  temperatures continuing into next week.

- Daily chances of precipitation over and near the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Currently...

A cool front extended from just south of KCOS to just south of KLIC
then northeastward up towards KITR. This boundary was slowly pushing
southward. Winds north of the boundary were gusty from the NNE.
Showers and tstorms were displaced well NW of the sfc front, with
the leading edge extending from the San Juans NNE across Teller
county and up across KDEN.

Rest of this afternoon into this evening...

Overall best chance of showers and storms will generally be across
the central mtns and generally the northern parts of the Pike Peak
region. Shear over the PPR was in the 20 to 35 knt range although
CAPE was rather weak, with values of about 500 Js, Given this, I
cant rule out one or two stronger storms later today over PPR. South
of this area, storms will be more isolated, but gusty north to
northeast winds will be likely as the front continues to push
southward this evening.

On and off showers will likely continue across the PPR through this
evening and into the early AM hours, and then decrease.

Later tonight, lower cigs are expected to develop over a good
portion of the plains, and most of the lower elevations will likely
wake up to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow morning.

The summit of Pikes Peak will turn white with 1 to 3 inches likely.

Tomorrow...

It will be noticeably cooler over the entire region. Max temps
tomorrow will only be in the 70s to, at best, lower 80s across the
plains, and I would not be all that surprised if temps actually come
in a bit cooler. The warmest temps over the plains will occur over
the far southeast plains.  Mtns will also enjoy the cooldown with
readings reaching about 70 over the San Luis Valley and 40s and 50s
in the mtns.

Another round of showers will push into the PPR early tomorrow
morning and will push south and east as the AM progresses. Although
all areas will likely see precip tomorrow, the overall best chance
of precip will b over the greater southern mtn region, PPR and the
southern I-25 corridor region. 1/10 to 3./10 of precip is generally
expected in the areas highlighted above. \/Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Thursday night-Saturday...Modest northwest flow remains progged
across the region into the early weekend, as upper level ridging
builds back across the Great Basin. Drier and subsident air behind
Thursay's passing system will lead to showers across the Southern
Tier of Colorado diminishing and ending Thursday evening, with
clearing skies leading to at and below seasonal low temperatures in
the 40s and 50s across the plains, and mainly 30s and 40s across the
higher terrain. There could also be some patchy frost, especially
across the high mountain valley locales. With proximity to the
building ridge, temperatures are expected to climb back to around
seasonal levels Friday and to slightly above seasonal temperatures
in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the Plains by Saturday. There looks
to be enough moisture within the modest west to northwest flow aloft
to support isolated afternoon showers and storms over the higher
terrain both Friday and Saturday.

Sunday-Wednesday...Longer term model data continues to differ on
location and amplitude of upper level ridging across the region.
Ensemble mean data, however, continues to suggest the upper ridge
slowly building back across the Rockies into next week. This will
allow for available moisture to slowly increase within developing
modest west to southwest flow aloft, leading to continued daily
chances of showers and storms over and near the higher terrain.
With the upper ridging across the region, temperatures look to
remain at and above seasonal levels into the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 533 PM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Gusty outflow winds will be possible at KCOS and KPUB through
02z with -TSRA. Gusts up to 40 kts will be possible along with
brief rainfall and VFR cigs. Otherwise, expect winds to settle
from a north direction with gusts up to 35 kts at times at both
terminals behind a cold front. Intermittent -SHRA will be
possible through the morning though cigs at both terminals will
remain VFR. Winds will decrease late morning through early
afternoon with a gradual shift from a more easterly direction.

KALS will see VCSH and gusty erratic winds through 02z before
winds settle from an easterly direction as winds pour through La
Veta Pass. Gusts up to 25 kts will be possible at times late
this evening. Otherwise, expect increasing VFR cloudiness
overnight with -SHRA possible towards morning. A better chance
may come in during the afternoon as storms roll off the
mountains. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT