Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
347 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon,
  forming over the southeast mountains before moving east into
  this evening.

- Northwest flow aloft and occasional cold fronts will maintain
  a daily threat of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
  convection through the extended, with temperatures at or
  slightly below seasonal normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Currently...

Chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
overnight for the plains east of the I-25 corridor and push east
towards the Kansas border. Any storms that develop are expected to
dissipate by early morning. Widespread severe hazards are not
expected due to diurnal cooling and overall lack of forcings, but
large hail could be a concern with localized stronger storms.

TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

Strong zonal flow continues Wednesday as we remain behind a upper
level trough with occasional embedded shortwaves. Expect warm
weather with temperatures in the mid 80's for the plains, high 70's
for the mountain valleys and 60s-70s for the mountains.

Wednesday afternoon has a set up that could potentially bring strong
storms to the CWA. Models are showing a weak dry line set up from
the northern half of the state on the eastern plains extending
through southern Colorado Wednesday afternoon. With MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg and 25-30 knots of effective bulk shear for the
eastern plains, expect scattered showers/thunderstorms to develop.
Storms are expected to develop in the afternoon off the Sangre De
Cristos and spread east until they fizzle out overnight. Strong hail
(1.5"+) and winds (60+ mph) are concerns with stronger storms based
on forecast soundings.

Models are in agreement of timing/set up of convection north of the
Palmer Divide, but start to disagree once south of the Palmer Divide
into our CWA. The HRRR is mixing out a majority of the convection
with isolated storms developing off the southern mountains after
noon, propagating east with some strengthening prior to moving into
western Kansas. Ensembles are showing scattered storms develop off
the southern mountains and quickly strengthen as they move off into
the eastern plains. This is the most likely scenario based on
model consensus and the SPC slight thunderstorm outlook for the
northern portion of our CWA including Crowley and Kiowa
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Thursday through Saturday...A strong ridge of high pressure will
reside over the West Coast through Saturday, keeping northwest flow
aloft across CO. Minor disturbances in the upper flow will keep the
threat of isolated to scattered convection in place each afternoon
for the forecast area, with the best chances over the eastern mts, I-
25 Corridor and southern border. A dry cold front drops south across
the Palmer Divide early Thu morning, ushering in cooler conditions.
High temps will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for Thu and Fri,
which is normal for the high valleys but below normal for the
plains. Saturday will be the warmest day of the extended as another
shortwave drops into the Dakotas, increasing winds slightly across
CO and bumping temps up into the mid 80s to lower 90s for the
plains. In addition, spotty near-critical fire weather conditions
will be possible across Fire Zones 220, 222 and 223 where minimum RH
levels are forecast to drop below 15 percent.

Sunday through Tuesday..The large upper ridge to the west starts to
move inland, with the high centroid pushing into the Great Basin
region for the start of the next work week. This will effectively
eliminate the northwest flow aloft that has been in place for a
while now. Meanwhile, a stronger upper shortwave drops south into
the Rockies early Sunday, pushing a cold front south into CO through
the morning. This will knock temps back to below normal across the
plains, as well as support isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday across much of the area,
including the eastern plains. Tuesday will start to warm back up
again with less convection chances. As for temps, plan on highs in
the mid 70s to around 80F each day for the high valleys. For the
plains, temps will climb into the upper 70s to upper 80s Sunday and
Monday, then mid 80s to lower 90s for Tuesday. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

KALS: VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours. West winds will
pick up this afternoon, gusting to around 25-30 knots, before
weakening in the evening.

KCOS and KPUB: Southeast upsloping winds will dominate most of the
morning, before turning more southerly in the afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to form in the area around mid-afternoon,
moving in from the nearby higher terrain, lowering cloud ceilings
and generating gusty outflow winds. If a thunderstorm manages to
move close to the terminals, winds will become strong and erratic,
around 40 knots or so, and precipitation could briefly limit
visibility into MVFR range.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1001 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

COZ086>088-093-030445-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
1001 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL OTERO...
NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO...NORTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM MDT...

At 1001 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles northwest of Delhi, or 32 miles southeast of Pueblo Airport,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Otero,
northeastern Huerfano, northwestern Las Animas and southeastern
Pueblo Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3780 10435 3793 10437 3802 10407 3779 10402
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 261DEG 12KT 3786 10426

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Rodriguez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1122 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

COZ093-097-030600-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
1122 PM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OTERO AND
NORTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT MDT...

At 1122 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Rocky Ford, or 11 miles west of La Junta, moving east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
La Junta, North La Junta, Rocky Ford, Las Animas, Swink, Cheraw, and
Timpas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pueblo.

&&

LAT...LON 3780 10378 3799 10386 3824 10334 3792 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 252DEG 24KT 3793 10374

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Moore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
127 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

COZ093-030800-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
127 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OTERO AND
NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM MDT...

At 127 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Higbee, or 21 miles south of North La Junta,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Otero
and northeastern Las Animas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3770 10369 3777 10347 3765 10345 3764 10351
      3765 10366
TIME...MOT...LOC 0727Z 255DEG 12KT 3767 10360

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
307 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

COZ098-030945-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
307 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PROWERS COUNTY
THROUGH 345 AM MDT...

At 307 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Lamar, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Prowers County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pueblo.

&&

LAT...LON 3780 10273 3797 10274 3808 10248 3778 10240
TIME...MOT...LOC 0907Z 258DEG 13KT 3789 10266

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Moore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
349 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

COZ089-093-031030-
Crowley County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
349 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OTERO AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CROWLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 430 AM MDT...

At 349 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Manzanola, or 22 miles northwest of La Junta, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Ford, Ordway, Manzanola, Olney Springs, and Crowley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Pueblo.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 10397 3816 10400 3831 10376 3802 10363
TIME...MOT...LOC 0949Z 254DEG 12KT 3811 10392

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Moore