Snow Squall Warning 3, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
328 PM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy snow and blowing snow will continue along the
  Continental Divide tonight into Thursday, though snowfall
  rates begin to decrease Thursday morning.

- Windy and mild again on the plains Thursday.

- Cooler and more unsettled weather expected across south
  central and southeast Colorado for the end of the work
  week through the weekend.

- A break in the weather for early next week?

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 323 PM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

Current radar loop shows a few windy showers moving east across the
plains, with some brief gusts to near 50 kts possible before
activity exits into Kansas late this afternoon. Farther west, still
a good deal of snow shower activity spilling eastward across the
crest of the northern Sangres and around Monarch Pass, while web
cams and obs show heavy snow along the Continental Divide,
especially around Wolf Creek Pass. Will keep current set of
highlights going through the evening as mountain snow and wind
continue, though Sangres will likely improve after sunset as most
snow showers end and wind begins to diminish. Heaviest snow
overnight will be in the eastern San Juans, where snowfall rates of
an inch per hour this evening will slowly taper off toward sunrise
Thu. Low threat of some mountain wave strong winds in the lee of the
Rampart Range/Air Force Academy overnight as upper jet shifts east
and strong reverse shear wind profile develops, though sub-inversion
winds (mainly in the 40 kt range) don't look quite strong enough to
warrant a highlight at this point. Overnight mins will continue on
the mild side many areas as sharp surface gradient behind departing
surface low keep at least breezy conditions going at many locations.

On Thursday, main upper trough departs into the Midwest, but new
energy digging into the western U.S. will keep w-sw flow in place
along the Continental Divide, and while snowfall rates will
diminish, snow may never completely come to an end, especially in
the eastern San Juans. Will keep highlights going for the Dvd for
now, though hopefully we can squeeze out a couple dry hours to allow
this set of warnings/advisories to end before next system approaches
Fri. On the plains, dry and breezy weather continues Thu, though
wind speeds don't look quite as strong as today as surface gradient
relaxes. Might be just windy enough for some increased fire danger
over the far sern plains, but not widespread enough for a highlights.
Temps will again be above average, with a few spots on the plains
approaching 60F.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

Thursday night-Sunday night...While latest models continue to indicate
differences in timing of embedded waves moving across the area through
the day Friday, they tend to agree with a long wave trough ejecting
across the Rockies Friday night through Saturday night, bringing cooler
temperatures and widespread light to moderate snowfall to much of south
central and southeast Colorado for the weekend.

For Thursday night and Friday...models do indicate increasing southwest
flow aloft ahead of the next embedded wave moving across the region, with
snow expected to increase in coverage and intensity across the ContDvd,
especially across the SW Mtns, before tapering off through the day Friday
as said wave continues to lift north and east into northeastern Colorado.
While there could be up to another foot of snow across the eastern San
Juans during the Thursday night/Friday timeframe, current winter storm
warnings across the SW Mtns may need to be extended into Friday. With
expected steep lapse rates associated with this passing wave, there could
be showers translating across south central and northern portions of
southeast Colorado through the day Friday, with the waves passing front
pushing south and west across the eastern Plains Friday afternoon.

Again, while there remain some timing issues, strong uuv associated with
the digging upper trough will again spread snow across the Central and
into the Eastern Mtns Friday night, with snow spreading across the rest
of south central and southeast Colorado through the day Saturday before
diminishing from northwest to southeast Saturday night and Sunday. While
available moisture is somewhat lacking, the expected steep lapse rates
(H5 temps around -30C) and enough easterly upslope flow, supports some
some light to moderate snow accumulations across the eastern mountains
and immediate adjacent plains. Latest NBM and ensemble data indicate a
60-80% chance of >3 inches of snow across the Eastern Mtns into the
I-25 Corridor through the day Saturday, along with 40-50% chances of
>6 inches of snow across the Palmer Dvd and the Sangre de Cristo and
Wet Mtns. Chances for >3 inches of snow do drop off further east across
the far southeast plains, as well as further west, save for portions
along the ContDvd.

As for temperatures, highs in the 40s to lower 50s across the plains
on Friday drop into the 30s to near 40 for Saturday and Sunday, with
highs in the 20s and 30s expected across the higher terrain through
the weekend.

Upper level ridging remains progged to build across the Rockies later
Sunday and Monday, bringing a warming and drying trend to the region.
While models do differ in the potential for a few more disturbances
moving through the ridge into the middle of next week, they would
tend to only bring a few showers to the higher terrain along
the ContDvd.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1020 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

At KALS, VFR conditions will prevail, with a brief vcsh possible
until 22z. SW winds will gust to 30 kts through the afternoon,
diminishing after 01z. Overnight and Thursday, VFR with gusty sw
winds again after 19z.

At KCOS, vcsh possible until around 20z, then VFR for the
remainder of the day and overnight. Strong sw winds will
develop this afternoon, with some gusts to 25-30 kts. Surface
winds diminish after 02z tonight, while winds aloft remain
strong, leading to a period of wind shear overnight into Thu
morning. On Thursday VFR conditions expected, while threat of
wind shear decreases as mid level flow weakens.

At KPUB, VFR conditions the next 24 hrs. SW winds will remain
strong through the afternoon, with some gusts 30-35 kts until
02z. Overnight, period of wind shear likely as surface winds
weaken while mid level flow remains strong. Threat of wind
shear then decreases toward 18z Thu, as winds aloft weaken.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Thursday for COZ060.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Thursday for COZ066-068.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for COZ067.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
COZ072-074-075.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ073.

&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...WANKOWSKI
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
419 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

COZ058>089-093>099-081130-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
419 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A strong Pacific storm system will continue to bring widespread snow
to the mountains and high valleys today and tonight. The heaviest
snow will remain along the Continental Divide and the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains. In addition to the moderate, to at times heavy,
snowfall, gusty west to southwest winds gusting up to 40 to 50 mph
will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow, and greatly reduced
visibility over area mountain passes.

Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
across the plains. Any stonger showers or storms could produce
strong wind gusts to around 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Light to moderate snow showers are expected along the mountains,
mostly the Continental Divide, throughout Thursday.

Widespread unsettled weather returns Friday and through the weekend,
with precipitation chances becoming heightened for much of south
central and southeastern Colorado, but especially along the
mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

27/SIMCOE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
953 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 AM     Snow             Divide                  38.95N 105.16W
02/07/2024  M2.8 inch        Teller             CO   Public

            relayed via broadcast media.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1003 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     Snow             1 NNW Woodland Park     39.01N 105.06W
02/07/2024  M3.3 inch        Teller             CO   Trained Spotter

            Snowfall since 530 am.

&&

mw

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1008 AM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     Snow             Woodland Park           39.00N 105.05W
02/07/2024  M4.0 inch        Teller             CO   Trained Spotter

&&

mw

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1224 PM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 PM     Snow             5 W Westcliffe          38.13N 105.56W
02/07/2024  M1.5 inch        Custer             CO   Trained Spotter

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
112 PM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

COZ096>098-072115-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
Eastern Kiowa County CO-
112 PM MST Wed Feb 7 2024

...A line of convective showers producing strong and gusty winds
will impact portions of northern Prowers, eastern Kiowa and east
central Bent Counties through 215 PM MST...

At 110 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a line of weakening
convective showers along a line extending from 10 miles north of
Sheridan Lake to 8 miles southeast of Queens Reservoir to 8 miles
south of McClave, which have produced strong and gusty outflow
winds. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lamar, Holly, Granada, Sheridan Lake, Hartman, Towner, Bristol, and
Brandon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 10231 3798 10295 3820 10264 3862 10240
      3861 10205 3808 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 267DEG 27KT 3862 10233 3821 10256 3800 10287

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

PS