Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
519 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of rain and snow showers continue tonight and end from
  southwest to northeast Monday morning.

- A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible
  across southern portions of the southeast plains this
  afternoon into the early overnight hours.

- Warm and dry weather returns through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Upper low approaching the 4 Corners Region this afternoon is
spreading the next round of showers and thunderstorms into the
mountains and southern portions of the southeast plains as lapse
rates steepen with the approach of the cold air aloft. Have already
seen some convective snow bursts across the southwest mountains with
additional satellite enhancement ongoing across northern NM with
additional convection headed northward.  Heaviest snow for the
mountains will shift from southwest to northeast through this
evening bringing a quick burst of locally heavy snow to the higher
Sangre De Cristo mountains and Sawatch and Mosquito Ranges. Peak
amounts just hitting the low end of advisory numbers.  Snow levels
remain high, but could drop to around 9500 feet or a little lower
with diabatic cooling under the heavier precipitation. Overall,
getting around 3-6 inches.  With best orographic enhancement
favoring the southwest mountains, will keep highlights going for
this region through 03z.  Elsewhere, snow could be heavy, but likely
too brief to warrant highlights.  Rain and snow showers will quickly
come to an end before midnight for most areas in and near the
mountains.

Across the plains, still monitoring for the potential for one or two
strong to severe thunderstorms mainly south of highway 50 and east
of the I-25 corridor.  Given the cooling aloft moving in from the
west, can't really rule out small hail with any of the stronger
cores across southern CO this afternoon and evening.  Deep layer
shears are best across central and western portions of the forecast
area, initially in closer proximity to the upper low and attendant
upper jet. Effective shears are running around 40-50 kts with CAPE
up to 1500 J/kg, maximized across the southeast plains where dew
points have climbed into the mid 50s.  As the upper jet ejects
northeastward, shears will increase across the remainder of the
southeast plains through the evening and overnight with lapse rates
steepening aloft into the overnight hours due to upper level cooling
from the upper low. We may maintain CAPE values of around 1000 J/kg
into the overnight hours and not much of a cap or surface inversion,
and some CAMs (HRRR) show the potential for strong to marginally
severe thunderstorms developing into the late evening and early
overnight hours before waning as main activity shifts eastward.
Other CAMs models (NamNest) are not as enthused with convective
strengths.  Either way, radar will be monitored closely with hail to
around the size of quarters and wind gusts to 50 mph the primary
risks prior to 06-07z.

Upper low will lift northeast from south central CO into southern NE
by Monday evening.  This will keep snow continuing across the
Sawatch and Mosquito ranges Monday morning with the potential for
some showers spreading southward into the Pikes Peak region briefly
Monday morning.  Wrap around band diminishes quickly Monday morning
and snow across the higher areas of the central mountains remains
limited.  So no additional highlights have been issued, but trends
will be monitored closely as amounts could cross over into low end
advisory levels if the deformation band becomes better developed.
Snow levels will drop into the pass levels though heaviest snow will
stay confined to Cottonwood pass and points northward. Otherwise,
winds will increase as the upper low departs, and we could see some
localized 40-50 mph gusts along the lower slopes of the Sangres and
into the wind prone portions of the I-25 corridor. Fortunately,
humidity levels remain too high and fuels likely too wet for fire
weather concerns. Winds will decrease into the afternoon with
temperatures rebounding into the 60s and low 70s across the lower
elevations with a mix of 30s-50s for the mountain and valleys.
-KT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Model data for the upcoming work week and into early next week
weekend has been consistent with rebuilding an upper level ridge
behind this weekends parting system, keeping modest and mainly dry
west to northwest flow in place across the Central Rockies, as a few
embedded waves translate across the Pacific Northwest through the
Northern Tier. This will keep mainly dry weather in place along with
high temperatures at to slightly above seasonal levels through the
week, along with no expected widespread freezing or subfreezing
temperatures on the horizon across the plains. The embedded
waves translating across the Northern Tier will bring brief cool
downs with backdoor fronts across the Plains on Wednesday and
possibly on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 512 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

KALS and PUB...showers and thunderstorms will move north across
the terminals through 04-05z. Reduced CIGS and VIS along with
gust winds as they pass. Improving conditions are expected at
both terminals once storms move across the terminals and away
from the area. Fog may be possible at KALS late tonight into
Monday morning. VFR conditions are anticipated at both sites
once fog dissipates at KALS through the rest of the day Monday.
Gusty northwest winds are expected Monday afternoon at KPUB.

KCOS...there is a bit less uncertainty in showers and
thunderstorms impacting the terminal through 04z. Expected most
activity to remain south and dissipate before reaching the
terminal. If storms can move across the terminal, reduced CIGS
and VIS along with gusty winds may be possible. This activity
should be done by 04-05z. There could be a few showers in the
area late tonight into Monday morning as the upper system move
across the Palmer Divide. Showers looks to end by mid to late
morning. Gusty northwest winds are forecast for Monday late
morning into the afternoon.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ066.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ068.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
657 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

COZ069>075-078-079-087-210145-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Southern San Luis Valley CO-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
657 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN ALAMOSA...NORTHWESTERN
HUERFANO...SOUTH CENTRAL CUSTER...SOUTHEASTERN SAGUACHE AND COSTILLA
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM MDT...

At 656 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of Great Sand Dunes to near
Blanca to near Questa. Movement was north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
San Luis, Blanca, Great Sand Dunes, Jaroso, Crestone Peak, San Pablo,
Sanchez Reservoir, Mesita, San Luis Lake, San Acacio, Red Wing, Fort
Garland, Chama, Blanca Peak, Garcia, western Spring Burn Scar south
of Highway 160 in Costilla county, and western Spring Burn Scar north
of Highway 160.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 10566 3784 10577 3810 10557 3798 10530
      3765 10524 3705 10528 3699 10542 3700 10565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 199DEG 39KT 3786 10570 3751 10555 3673 10554

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

kam

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
800 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

COZ086>088-210230-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
800 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL HUERFANO...NORTH
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM
MDT...

At 800 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Walsenburg, or 27 miles north of Trinidad, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Huerfano, north central Las Animas and southeastern Pueblo Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3744 10454 3753 10474 3805 10442 3792 10413
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 210DEG 49KT 3756 10460

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

kam

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1000 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

COZ093-094-097-210430-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
1000 PM MDT Sun Oct 20 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OTERO...
NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES THROUGH 1030
PM MDT...

At 959 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout near Higbee, or 20 miles south of
North La Junta, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, and penny size
         hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Higbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3757 10347 3769 10362 3798 10342 3787 10301
TIME...MOT...LOC 0359Z 217DEG 40KT 3769 10350

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

kam