Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
310 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible rest of this afternoon and early
evening across the plains.

- Patchy frost/light freeze possible for central San Luis Valley
  tonight.

- Dry and breezy on Thursday. Spotty near-critical fire weather
conditions are expected across the area.

- Cooler and wetter conditions this weekend across the area.
  Best chance of showers and storms will be on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Currently

At 2 pm, A line of broken storms extended from just west of COS S-
sw'd into the southern Sangres. Other additional showers and storms
were noted over the CONTDVD region. Over the plains the atmosphere
was destabilizing and winds aloft were increasing. SPC has already
issued a watch for the region and lasts until early evening.

Rest of today into early evening...

Storms will continue to progress steadily northeastward. Given the
shear, storms will likely move across the region as a broken line.
Dewpts were noted in the U40s to lower 50s, and CAPE values were
around 500-1000 Js, with the better instability generally east of a
line from KLIC to KTAD. Strong forcing was pushing out in advance of
a negatively tilted closed low pushing east-northeast out of Nevada.

Main severe threat continues to be strong winds, as HRRR guidance
continues to show strong gusts with storms, and the environment is
favorable for strong gusts given the well mixed lower atmosphere and
DCAPE values greater than 1000 Js over the far eastern plains.

Overall, activity should move out of the region by early to mid
evening.

Later tonight through tomorrow...

Much drier air will advect in behind this system and dry weather is
expected tonight into tomorrow all areas. Only weather concern will
be the San Luis valley where temps will be in the 32-34 range and
pockets of frost are likely over the central valley floor.

Temps tomorrow will be above normal over the plains, with mid 80 to
around 90F plains and L70s valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Thursday...

Dry and warm conditions will persist across the area on Thursday as
we sit in between two upper lows. Breezy southwest flow will have
temperatures remain mostly steady, with highs in the mid-high 80s
over the plains while the high valleys remain in the 70s. With the
dry airmass remaining in place, Rh values will hover around 15-20
percent through most of the afternoon, while surface winds sit
around 10-15 mph. Unless we get more mixing than the models are
expecting, which is possible but not likely, critical fire weather
conditions will be marginal. Otherwise, the day will be relatively
quiet.

Friday Onwards...

Models have reached better agreement on the track of the next
incoming low as we approach this weekend. Friday will largely be a
transition day, with high temperatures about 5 degrees higher than
Thursday, along with slightly increased moisture from the incoming
system.

As we move into Saturday, models have continued trending south with
the evolution of the upper level pattern, now sending a closed low
directly over Colorado. As it moves in, a cold front will push south
across the area late Friday night into early Saturday. Along the
front, localized convergence and a good amount of monsoon moisture
could net us a healthy amount of precipitation. The exact amounts,
as well as what kind of precipitation (convective vs more
stratiform) we may see will largely be dependent on frontal timing
and instability. As of now, the GFS only shows a few hundred J/kg of
CAPE over the plains, and the system is moving relatively quickly,
so amounts may not be all that high. However, there is still time
for these details to become better resolved in the data.

There is still a bit of uncertainty amongst the model guidance with
regards to the speed of the low as well. The GFS has consistently
been one of the faster models, and the Canadian has been largely
tagging along the last few runs. However, the EC is currently
looking slow compared to the other deterministic guidance by several
hours. Additionally, any shift to the N-S extent of the track will
have a big impact on precip amounts. High temperatures will drop
around 10 degrees as well, in mainly in the 70s to low-80s out east.

For Sunday, post-frontal air will cool us off even more, with highs
in the 60s-70s across the CWA. Some isolated-scattered POPS remain,
but at this point models begin to diverge again on the departure of
the low. Most of the better forcing and moisture will be off to our
north and east, though if the low intensifies faster we may get some
more potent wraparound precipitation into the Palmer Divide. Still
plenty of time for those details to be resolved. Models are much
less clear beyond that, though the cooler pattern may possibly
extend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Main concern is a broken line of strong to severe storms will
push across the region this afternoon. Storms will move across
KALS between 1 and 4 pm, and I-25 between 2:30 and 5:30 pm-ish.
Strong winds are primary concern at the taf sites. I cannot
rule out some hail, though. Otherwise VFR after the system moves
across.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1142 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

COZ058>089-093>099-181745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1142 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the entire region
today as an intense Pacific storm moves just to the north of the
region. The primary concern will be wind gusts to 40 to 60 mph in
the mountains and valleys,  and 60 to 80 mph over the plains.
Hail up to the size of Ping Pong balls is also possible.

Localized heavy rain will also be possible, but the storms will be
moving rather quickly to the northeast at 25 to 35 mph.

Strong winds of 20 to 40 mph outside of thunderstorms will occur
over the eastern plains through the afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Warm, dry and breezy conditions are in the offing for Wednesday
through Friday, with the potential for spotty critical fire weather
conditions across portions of the southeast plains. The dry conditions
will also allow for seasonally cool overnight lows with the potential
for near freezing temperatures across the high mountain valleys
through the end of the work week.

Cooler temperatures with increasing chances for showers and
possibly strong thunderstorms can be expected for the weekend,
especially on Saturday, as another rather strong Pacific storm
system moves across the Rockies. There will be the potential for
snowfall across the highest mountain peaks this weekend with the
passage of this weather system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be near certain over the region this afternoon into mid evening.

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
217 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

COZ079-080-083-085>088-172045-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
Wet Mountains above 10000 Ft CO-
217 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO...
SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT...NORTHEASTERN CUSTER...SOUTH CENTRAL EL PASO...
NORTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS AND PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM MDT...

At 216 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Florence to 9 miles east of Farisita.
Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Pueblo Airport, Fountain, Florence, Pueblo Reservoir, Salt
Creek, Penrose, Pinon, Canon City, Greenhorn Mountain, Blende, Pueblo
West, Avondale, Rye, Beulah, San Isabel, Colorado City, Wetmore, and
Oak Ridge Burn Scar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
central, southeastern and east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 10455 3779 10421 3776 10438 3762 10496
      3849 10527
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 231DEG 44KT 3842 10512 3774 10489

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

EP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
226 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

COZ074-086>088-172100-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
226 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HUERFANO...WESTERN
LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM MDT...

At 225 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Walsenburg to 8 miles south of Segundo.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Walsenburg, Aguilar, Cokedale, Starkville, Gulnare, Raton
Pass, Boncarbo, Model, Segundo, Hoehne, and Weston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3762 10494 3780 10421 3700 10422 3699 10427
      3699 10483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 231DEG 32KT 3761 10482 3700 10476

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

EP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
227 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

COZ071-074-172100-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Southern San Luis Valley CO-
227 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN COSTILLA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONEJOS COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM MDT...

At 227 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Manassa, or 25 miles south of San Luis Valley
Airport, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
San Luis and San Acacio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
south central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10577 3700 10589 3709 10598 3740 10558
      3719 10537 3699 10576
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 231DEG 32KT 3707 10584

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

EP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
256 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 S Colorado City       37.86N 104.83W
09/17/2024  M64 MPH          Huerfano           CO   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CO029 025s066 Apache City.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>