Severe Thunderstorm Warning 292, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
237 PM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool front crossing the area this afternoon with TSRA
  expected over far northern sections of CWA thru this evening.

- It will snow at the summit of Pikes Peak with some light accums.

- Much cooler tomorrow with showers and isold TSRA across a good
  part of the region.

- Warming trend for the weekend with at and above seasonal
  temperatures continuing into next week.

- Daily chances of precipitation over and near the higher terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Currently...

A cool front extended from just south of KCOS to just south of KLIC
then northeastward up towards KITR. This boundary was slowly pushing
southward. Winds north of the boundary were gusty from the NNE.
Showers and tstorms were displaced well NW of the sfc front, with
the leading edge extending from the San Juans NNE across Teller
county and up across KDEN.

Rest of this afternoon into this evening...

Overall best chance of showers and storms will generally be across
the central mtns and generally the northern parts of the Pike Peak
region. Shear over the PPR was in the 20 to 35 knt range although
CAPE was rather weak, with values of about 500 Js, Given this, I
cant rule out one or two stronger storms later today over PPR. South
of this area, storms will be more isolated, but gusty north to
northeast winds will be likely as the front continues to push
southward this evening.

On and off showers will likely continue across the PPR through this
evening and into the early AM hours, and then decrease.

Later tonight, lower cigs are expected to develop over a good
portion of the plains, and most of the lower elevations will likely
wake up to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow morning.

The summit of Pikes Peak will turn white with 1 to 3 inches likely.

Tomorrow...

It will be noticeably cooler over the entire region. Max temps
tomorrow will only be in the 70s to, at best, lower 80s across the
plains, and I would not be all that surprised if temps actually come
in a bit cooler. The warmest temps over the plains will occur over
the far southeast plains.  Mtns will also enjoy the cooldown with
readings reaching about 70 over the San Luis Valley and 40s and 50s
in the mtns.

Another round of showers will push into the PPR early tomorrow
morning and will push south and east as the AM progresses. Although
all areas will likely see precip tomorrow, the overall best chance
of precip will b over the greater southern mtn region, PPR and the
southern I-25 corridor region. 1/10 to 3./10 of precip is generally
expected in the areas highlighted above. \/Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Thursday night-Saturday...Modest northwest flow remains progged
across the region into the early weekend, as upper level ridging
builds back across the Great Basin. Drier and subsident air behind
Thursay's passing system will lead to showers across the Southern
Tier of Colorado diminishing and ending Thursday evening, with
clearing skies leading to at and below seasonal low temperatures in
the 40s and 50s across the plains, and mainly 30s and 40s across the
higher terrain. There could also be some patchy frost, especially
across the high mountain valley locales. With proximity to the
building ridge, temperatures are expected to climb back to around
seasonal levels Friday and to slightly above seasonal temperatures
in the mid 80s to mid 90s across the Plains by Saturday. There looks
to be enough moisture within the modest west to northwest flow aloft
to support isolated afternoon showers and storms over the higher
terrain both Friday and Saturday.

Sunday-Wednesday...Longer term model data continues to differ on
location and amplitude of upper level ridging across the region.
Ensemble mean data, however, continues to suggest the upper ridge
slowly building back across the Rockies into next week. This will
allow for available moisture to slowly increase within developing
modest west to southwest flow aloft, leading to continued daily
chances of showers and storms over and near the higher terrain.
With the upper ridging across the region, temperatures look to
remain at and above seasonal levels into the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024

Weather will become a bit more active over the region,
especially for KCOS, as a pacific weather system pushes across
the region.

KCOS...

Showers and a few isold tsra will be possible late this
afternoon and early evening. Main concern will be gusty winds
with convective showers. Sustained gusty north winds will be
possible this evening at KCOS, weakening late this evening. By
Sunrise tomorrow, another area of lift will be pushing across
KCOS and this will bring a chance of showers and lower cigs
across the taf site tomorrow morning along with gusty winds.

KPUB...

A strong cold front will cross the region later this afternoon
bringing gusty north winds to the taf site, with winds lasting
into mid evening. Cant rule out an isold shower but chances
pretty low. A better chance of showers will affect KPUB after
sunrise tomorrow with lower cigs moving across, but VFR cigs are
expected.

KALS...

SOme passing gusty showers will be possible late this afternoon
and early evening. Then, this evening, sustained gusty easterly
winds are expected to push over MOSCA pass and affect the KALS
region this evening into the early AM hours, and then weaken
towards sunrise.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1215 PM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024

COZ058>089-093>099-051815-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1215 PM MDT Wed Sep 4 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
Central Mountains by early afternoon, spreading east into the Pikes
Peak Region and Palmer Divide by mid to late afternoon. Lightning
and outflow wind gusts near 45 mph may be possible, especially
over the Palmer Divide. Showers and thunderstorms will spread
south and east with a cold front this evening and overnight. There
is a low end chance that one or two of the storms may produce
marginally severe wind gusts and hail across northern Teller and
northern El Paso counties, especially later this afternoon and
early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are expected each
afternoon, though mostly along the mountains. Thursday is expected
to have the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms for the
region. Gusty outflow winds around 30 to 35 mph and lightning
will be the most likely hazards with any thunderstorms the
develop.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

34/34