Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
224 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible I-25 corridor and portions of
  the southeast plains through midnight.

- Less thunderstorms for Tuesday but storms could still be
  strong to severe across portions of the southeast plains.

- Daily afternoon rain showers and thunderstorms expected along
  and west of the I-25 corridor for most of the long term
  period.

- Showers and storms remain Saturday, with a drier day expected
  Sunday with a brief pattern change.&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Front has pushed through most of the southeast plains with dew
points in the 50s and 60s along and behind it.  Stratus across the
far eastern most counties has been slow to burn off today which has
kept atmosphere capped.  Otherwise active monsoon plume resides
across CO with another weak wave moving through the flow late this
afternoon and evening.  Thunderstorms which have developed across
the mountains and Palmer Divide will spread eastward through the
late afternoon and evening with models in good agreement that an MCS
will develop across northern portions of the southeast plains this
evening as a low level south to southeasterly jet intensifies as it
overrides the surface boundary across southern portions of the
southeast plains. Stout CAPE ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg based off
ensemble mean from HREF along with deep layer shears 35-40 kts will
be sufficient for large hail (up to golf ball), outflow winds over
60 mph, and locally heavy rainfall.  Flash flooding will be a
concern for our more vulnerable locations (burn scars, urban areas),
though storm motions to the east at 15-20 mph should preclude the
necessity of a flash flood watch.  Storms will move eastward through
the evening though the I-25 corridor could see a couple rounds of
storms, especially if dew point return behind outflows from the
initial round of convection generates new thunderstorms as they
impinge the eastern mountains. However, focus for more intense
convection should shift eastward along and north of highway 50 to
near the KS border before diminishing.

Atmosphere dries out a bit Tue though precipitable waters are still
running around 100-120% of normal. Residual low level moisture in
southeast flow across the plains will yield CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
across the plains by afternoon.  Deep layer shear looks a little
weaker but still a respectable 30-35 kts.   Atmosphere looks more
capped across the far eastern plains with convection firing over the
mountains by noon, then spreading into the I-25 corridor during the
late afternoon and early evening.  One or two strong to marginally
severe storms still look possible along the I-25 corridor and
adjacent plains where CAPE maximizes.  How far east convection
maintains is still in question as cap looks quite strong farther
east.  Suspect convection will diminish as it moves eastward unless
more cloud breaks and surface heating can occur.  -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Tuesday Night - Friday: For much of the week, the monsoon pattern
will remain in place over south central and southeastern Colorado. A
ridge of high pressure will persist over the region, and along with
that, moisture will continue to stream into the ridge and over the
area. Ensemble model guidance are in strong agreement about this,
leading to high to very high (>60%) confidence in this pattern
evolution. While no major forcing is anticipated, diurnal upsloping
and modest orographic forcing, in combination with the moisture
streaming over the area, will allow for daily afternoon rain showers
and thunderstorms generally along and west of the I-25 corridor. The
greatest coverage of precipitation will be along the mountains,
where any forcing will be strongest. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and
lightning are the expected hazards with any more organized
thunderstorms. Like a typical summer day though, showers and storms
will dissipate during the evening as instability and forcing lessen.
As for temperatures, a warm stretch of days is expected as the ridge
sits over the region. Much of the area will warm to above seasonal
temperatures for late August.

Saturday - Sunday: For the weekend, a brief pattern change is
anticipated. The ridge will break down for a couple of days as a
larger trough to the north pushes near/over region. Ahead of the
wave Saturday, moisture will remain in place, but as the wave treks
eastward through Sunday, moisture will become scoured out. Given
this, precipitation chances will remain heightened Saturday given
the stronger forcing and moisture in place, but will drop Sunday as
drier air is shoved into the region. Like much of the week though,
the greatest coverage for any precipitation will remain along the
mountains, where forcing will be greatest, and lessen in coverage
during the evening and overnight hours. Looking at temperatures,
warmth looks to stick around as downsloping winds prevail. With that
said though, a cold front will likely drop down southward late
Sunday and speed of this feature will heavily influence Sundays
temperature.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains and spread into
the adjacent lower elevations after 19-20z. KCOS and KPUB have
the best chance for TSRA to impact the terminals, and with
plenty of moisture and instability present, a severe storm with
gusts to 50 kts and large hail can not be ruled out. Have added
GS to the KCOS terminal for now in the tempo group. A couple
rounds of thunderstorms could impact both KCOS and KPUB through
02-03z before activity pulls east. There is the possibility that
stratus could spread into both terminals with IFR cigs after
09-10z. Odds look low without strong easterly surface winds
advertised in the forecast models so will keep a SCT deck in
there for now until better certainty is gained.

KALS will see lower chances for thunderstorms today, so will
maintain VCSH for now. Winds will shift out of the north this
evening before diminishing under clearing skies overnight. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1140 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

COZ058>089-093>099-201745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1140 AM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few severe thunderstorms are likely today across portions of
the southeast plains. The greatest threat area will be across El
Paso, Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Bent, and western Kiowa counties.
The primary threats will be hail up to the size of golfballs,
localized wind gusts up to 70 mph, and heavy rainfall capable of
causing localized flash flooding. The tornado threat is low, but
not zero. The storms will form by mid afternoon over the Pikes
Peak region and then move east-southeast towards the La Junta area
by mid evening. The greatest severe weather risk timeframe will
be from 3 PM to 9 PM.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible across the
remainder of southern Colorado today. The main risk with
thunderstorms elsewhere will be heavy rain, small hail, and
lightning. Localized flash flooding will be possible, especially
for burn scars and urban areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day this week,
mostly over the higher terrain with a few storms making it onto the
eastern plains. With plenty of moisture in the environment, heavy
rainfall and flash flooding will be our primary concern, though a
few stronger storms, with hail and gusty winds, cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be likely over portions of the region.

31/31

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