Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Pueblo, CO

344 
WWUS55 KPUB 170111
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
711 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

COC071-170145-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-240817T0145Z/
Las Animas CO-
711 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...

At 711 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles northwest
of Kim, or 43 miles south of North La Junta, moving northeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of east
central Las Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 10357 3738 10363 3760 10339 3756 10336
      3738 10320
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 245DEG 16KT 3735 10351 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KT

523 
WWUS55 KPUB 170119
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
719 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

COC071-170129-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0261.000000T0000Z-240817T0145Z/
Las Animas CO-
719 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 10357 3738 10363 3760 10339 3756 10336
      3738 10320
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 235DEG 22KT 3738 10346 

$$

KT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
541 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot on Saturday, with a slight upturn in thunderstorm chances
  over the mountains, mainly along the Continental Divide.

- Monsoonal moisture returns Sunday, with above normal
  temperatures and daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
  persisting through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Currently...Building upper ridge over the area today was suppressing
convection at most locations, and only storms noted at mid-afternoon
were over the OK Panhandle along a weak surface boundary which
slipped through the plains overnight. Despite building
heights/warming mid-levels, afternoon temps have lagged forecasts a
few degf so far today, especially on the plains behind the front.

Tonight...will keep some very low pops going this evening along the
NM and OK border east of Trinidad, as HRRR hints at outflow from
storms to the south potentially forcing a brief/windy storm through
sunset. Elsewhere, expect mostly clear skies and seasonably mild
overnight min temps.

Tonight...Upper ridge continues to build across CO through the day,
with axis drifting slowly eastward toward the KS border by evening.
This set-up should allow at least a minor uptick in available
moisture across the western half of CO, leading to the reappearance
of afternoon thunderstorms, especially along the Continental Divide.
Expect most activity to produce more wind than rain as low levels
will be slow to moisten, with lightning the main hazard with most
storms, especially over any higher exposed peaks. Temperatures
Saturday will climb as heights rise, and maxes deep into the 90s to
low 100s are likely on the plains, with 80s widespread over interior
valleys and lower mountain zones.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Saturday Night and Sunday..

Overnight low temperatures on Saturday look to remain around 4 to 7
degrees above normal for most locations, which will give way to
continued above normal temperatures for Sunday. Sunday is a bit of a
transition day though, as models begin to bring a low onshore over
the Pacific Northwest which will eventually push the high off to our
southeast as we get into the beginning of next week. This will open
up the monsoonal moisture tap over our region. For Sunday, models
indicate that the beginning of this monsoonal moisture should start
to work its way into the high country, as we remain situated along
the northwestern periphery of the high. This setup could lead to the
possibility of a few showers and storms pushing into the mountain
adjacent plains through Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening as well,
though the best chances for moisture will remain over the mountains
for Sunday. Daytime highs look to remain around 4 to 8 degrees above
normal for Sunday, though we will see a slight decrease from
expected temperatures on Saturday, especially over and near the
mountains where convective cloud cover will help to keep us cooler
through the hottest part of the day. Our far eastern plains could
still see triple digits under mostly sunny skies, but the majority
of the I-25 corridor should top out in the 90s, with mountain
valleys in the 80s and higher terrain locations in the 70s.

Monday Onwards..

By Monday, models indicate that we transition to a pattern of
slightly above normal temperatures and daily chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms, especially over and near the higher
terrain, thanks to the return of monsoonal moisture over the region.
Ensembles, especially GEFS members, show a strong signal for PWAT
anomalies exceeding the 100-140% range beginning Sunday and
persisting all the way through next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be light
(mostly less than 10 kts) and diurnally influenced at all terminals.
There is low confidence (less than 20 percent) of VCSH and
possible VCTS at KPUB until 02Z. If these do occur, There could
be strong outflows with abrupt wind changes and gusty winds
associated with these, even if tstms do not move directly
overhead.   -Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...STEWARD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1122 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

COZ058>089-093>099-171730-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1122 AM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and early
this evening near the Raton Mesa, and over the plains along and
just north of the New Mexico border. Gusty winds to 50 mph and
occasional cloud to ground lightning will be the main storm
hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Daily showers and thunderstorms will return to the area starting
on Sunday, lasting through the rest of next week. Best coverage
will be over the Continental Divide, with fewer storms moving
east. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning will be possible each
day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight.

10/GARBEROGLIO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
433 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

COZ079-086-087-162300-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000Ft CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
433 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO AND
SOUTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM MDT...

At 432 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a weakening thunderstorm 8
miles east of Greenhorn Mountain, or 29 miles southwest of Pueblo,
moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 10498 3800 10490 3794 10457 3769 10469
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 291DEG 10KT 3788 10485

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
540 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

COZ088-094-170015-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
540 PM MDT Fri Aug 16 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM MDT...

At 540 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles northeast of
Trinchera to Branson. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Branson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3725 10409 3733 10349 3700 10351 3700 10409
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 265DEG 23KT 3717 10390 3703 10390

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KT