Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Pueblo, CO

319 
WWUS55 KPUB 130353
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
953 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

COC061-130403-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-240813T0400Z/
Kiowa CO-
953 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1000 PM MDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with these
thunderstorms.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 10268 3842 10329 3852 10325 3853 10317
      3861 10317 3861 10267
TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 236DEG 18KT 3886 10299 3859 10313 

$$

MG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
908 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong storms possible once again over plains tomorrow afternoon.

- Drier and warmer through the end of the work week.

- Increasing coverage of daily showers and thunderstorms again for
  the late weekend into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Latest high res models keep greatest thunderstorm coverage
across northeast sections of the plains through midnight with
the possibility that the axis of more intense storms stays just
north of Kiowa county. With stabilization elsewhere have
cancelled the Flash Flood Watch for all but Kiowa county. With
some margin for error on the southward extent of the linear
segment moving through east central CO will keep Kiowa county in
the Watch for a couple more hours. -KT

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Currently...

Isolated thunderstorms were developing region-wide over the fcst
area at 2 pm. Best overall coverage was up on the north side of the
Pikes peak region and over the San Juans pushing into the San Luis
Valley. A look at the SPC Meso page shows that 20 to 30 knots of
deep shear was noted over all of the plains and adjacent S mtns
along with Sfc based CAPE values of 1000 to 4000 Joules. The best
CAPE was noted over far SE CO plains and was advecting
northwestward.

Rest of Today into Tonight...

Main concern is strong storms developing over the region and they
will be capable of rainfall that could produce flash flooding along
with marginally severe weather. Greatest threat for heavy rain will
generally be over northern El Paso county, Crowley county and
especially Kiowa county. Early this afternoon a theta-e maximum was
advecting northwestward across Baca county, and this unstable air
will continue to advect north and westward during this afternoon.
Instability was increasing (per above discussion), as CAPE values
were between 1000 and 4000 Joules (most unstable far southeast) and
shear values over the far eastern plains were in the 20 to 30 knt
range. A disturbance (per water vap imgy) over the 4 corners region
will continue to move east, and this will allow thunderstorms to
increase in coverage and intensity over the plains as the afternoon
progresses. Based on latest data, the best chance for heavy rain
along the I-25 corridor will be between 5 and 8 pm, with the heavy
rain pushing east-northeast over the eastern plains during the
evening hours.

Storms should end late this evening over most areas, but CONTDVD
region could see occasional showers and storms throughout the
overnight hours. Some areas of low clouds could be over the plains
early tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow...

Coverage of storms tomorrow is expected to be somewhat less than
what will happen today as a bit drier air start to move into the
region. Additionally, temps tomorrow will be about 1 to 3 F warmer
than todays max temps. Additionally, the storms will likely initiate
a bit later in the day as compared to today. Nonetheless, we will
once again see a threat of marginally severe storms (with wind being
the main threat) and more localized heavy rain over the entire
region. \/Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Moderate westerly flow aloft remains progged across the region
through the end of the work week, which will start to scour out and
then keep the monsoonal moisture plume well south of the area
through the end of the work week. There looks to be enough lift and
moisture associated with a passing embedded wave across the Northern
Rockies on Wednesday to support scattered afternoon and evening
showers and storms, with the best coverage expected across the
higher terrain and generally north of the Highway 50 Corridor.

By Thursday and continuing into the early weekend, operational and
ensemble data indicate below seasonal moisture in place across the
Central Rockies, as upper level ridging builds back across the
region. The latest operational GFS is the most aggressive in
bringing back monsoonal into western Colorado by Saturday, where as
the rest of the guidance keeps the plume south and west of the
area through Saturday. With that said, should see a downward trend
in daily convection, with mainly isolated high based showers over
the higher terrain for the end of the work week and into the early
weekend. With the decreased moisture and convection, temperatures
will warm back to above seasonal levels, with highs well into the
90s across the Plains once again. The increased temperatures and
decreased moisture, combined with moderating westerly flow aloft,
will lead to increasing fire danger across the region into the
weekend as well.

By Sunday and continuing into early next week, model data does
support increasing available moisture within southwesterly flow
aloft, as the upper high slowly shifts south and east of the
Central Rockies. This will again lead to a slow increase in
coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms areawide, with
a slow decrease in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 357 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Thunderstorms could impact the terminals through 03z with brief
MVFR cigs/vis from +TSRA. Erratic wind gusts up to 45 kts and
small hail could occur at KCOS or KPUB if a stronger storm
impacts those areas though this is looking less likely as the
focus for storms shift east of the terminals with time. There is
a low end potential for some IFR conditions with stratus and fog
at KCOS, though latest model guidance suggest it should clear by
10-11z if it does occur. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with
another round of thunderstorms possible at the terminals after
21z.  -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ095-096.

&&

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...KT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
912 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

COZ058>089-093>099-140315-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
912 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Localized heavy rainfall will remain possible across Kiowa county
through midnight. Otherwise isolated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible over the mountains, with lightning and brief
moderate rainfall the primary risks.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Rain showers and thunderstorms are expected for much of the region
Tuesday and Wednesday, with the greatest coverage along and around
the mountains. Some storms across the valleys and plains may become
strong to severe Tuesday and Wednesday, with severe wind gusts and
large hail the primary hazards. Conditions dry out Thursday and
Friday, with showers and storms returning over the weekend. Any more
organized storm may produce heavy rain Tuesday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

31/31

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
548 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

COZ093-130015-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
548 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN OTERO AND SOUTHEASTERN
PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM MDT...

At 547 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Timpas, or 20 miles west of La Junta, moving east
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Ford, Swink, Manzanola, and Timpas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 10402 3796 10406 3810 10406 3811 10372
      3794 10354 3776 10364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 247DEG 22KT 3793 10392

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
612 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

COZ084>086-089-130045-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Crowley County CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
612 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMs WILL IMPACT EL
PASO...NORTHWESTERN CROWLEY AND NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH
645 PM MDT...

At 612 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms across El Paso and Pueblo Counties, moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Colorado Springs, Fountain, Calhan, Ramah, Hanover, Truckton,
Yoder, Black Forest, Ellicott, Peyton, Pinon, Falcon,
Security-Widefield, Schriever Space Force Base, Cimarron Hills,
Peterson Space Force Base, Rush, and Pueblo West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 10405 3852 10402 3840 10402 3838 10474
      3907 10472 3913 10431 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 256DEG 18KT 3871 10441

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
615 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

COZ097>099-130100-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
615 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PROWERS...NORTH
CENTRAL BACA AND SOUTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM MDT...

At 615 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Two Buttes Reservoir, or 15 miles north of Springfield, moving east
at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Two Buttes Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3751 10278 3767 10282 3783 10240 3760 10227
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 256DEG 18KT 3762 10271

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
627 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

COZ089-095-130100-
Crowley County CO-Western Kiowa County CO-
627 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL KIOWA AND CENTRAL
CROWLEY COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM MDT...

At 627 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crowley, or 24 miles northwest of La Junta, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ordway, Sugar City, and Crowley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3841 10341 3812 10377 3824 10399 3852 10372
      3852 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 223DEG 24KT 3824 10384

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
651 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

COZ084>086-089-130130-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Crowley County CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
651 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN EL PASO...NORTHWESTERN
CROWLEY AND NORTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM MDT...

At 651 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Simla to 8 miles east of Pinon. Movement
was northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ramah, Hanover, Truckton, Yoder, and Rush.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 10405 3852 10398 3843 10400 3836 10457
      3913 10417 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 230DEG 6KT 3909 10407 3847 10446

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
656 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

COZ094-098-099-130200-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
656 PM MDT Mon Aug 12 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL PROWERS...BACA AND
EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM MDT...

At 656 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles northwest of Pritchett to 12 miles
east of Kim to 6 miles southeast of Wheeless. Movement was east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Pritchett, Vilas, Campo, Two Buttes, and Two Buttes
Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3719 10321 3755 10301 3770 10226 3699 10235
      3700 10310
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 261DEG 23KT 3750 10297 3721 10313 3666 10281

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MG