Severe Thunderstorm Warning 235, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, a few strong to
  severe, remain possible across the southeast plains through
  this evening.

- There is an additional risk for at least isolated strong to
  severe storms across the eastern plains on Friday.

- Warming trend continues this weekend into next week. Daily
  showers and storms will continue over and near the mountains.

- Cooler, unsettled pattern possible near the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Still continue to monitor the risk for strong to severe storms
this afternoon, though latest radar imagery is showing rather
limited development this afternoon. This is likely due to
overall lacking large scale support, lack of strong focus at the
surface at this time, along with likely strong capping still in
place this afternoon. Despite these limiting factors this
afternoon, still think there will at least be isolated to widely
scattered shower and thunderstorm development through the
evening time frame. Increases in moisture with surface dew
points in the upper 50s to low 60s are in place across the
southeast plains, with even some upper 60s noted around the Baca
county area. This moist advection aided by strong low level
easterlies is helping with increased instability at this time,
with latest RAP analysis showing anywhere from around 1000 j/kg
to 2000 j/kg in place across the plains, mainly along and south
of Highway 50. So given these trends and with the higher
likelihood for some additional focus at the surface, think the
highest chances for storm development including the risk for
strong to severe storms will be along and south of Highway 50.
Additionally, easterly surface winds and veering profile are
supporting bulk shear values of 25 to 35 kt. So, if a more
robust updraft can get going, think the risk of wind gusts to 60
mph and hail to the size of ping pongs will continue over the
southeast plains through this evening.

No real big change to the larger pattern, with upper ridging
the trend on Friday and with above normal temperatures
persisting. The westward push of moisture and instability
continues on Friday, with expanding chances for showers and
thunderstorms. This will include the higher terrain during the
day, with chances increasing across the plains later in the day
into the evening. Confidence with the extent of the instability
axis is low at this time, though it is possible that a moderate
instability axis will be in place across the eastern plains.
This would support the risk of severe storms in this area even
despite more modest shear values. Even if instability is lower,
still think there is a risk for stronger development with gusty
winds, small hail, and heavy downpours the main hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 247 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024

High pressure will continue to dominate overhead as we move
into this weekend and early next week. Modest north-northwest
flow will set in aloft this weekend, with some weak easterlies
at the surface over the plains. As a result, what moisture there
is, and subsequent storm coverage, will mostly be limited to
areas along the Continental Divide. Model guidance currently
shows Sunday having a better chance for more coverage compared
to Saturday, potentially due to a disturbance to the pattern
aloft passing by to our north. Meanwhile, temperatures will
continue to be above average, with 90s across the plains and
mid-high 80s for the high valleys.

Monday Onwards...

Models show the upper high remaining mostly in place over the
Rockies as we move through next week. High temperatures will
continue near or above seasonal averages, with some places over
the plains nearing or exceeding 100 degrees, mainly Monday-
Tuesday. Daily showers and thunderstorms will continue over and
near the mountains, increasing in coverage as several
disturbances travel through the flow aloft. A cooler, more
unsettled pattern will move in around the end of the week, with
models resolving a cold front moving in across the plains as the
upper high shifts more to the south and east. High temperatures
will noticeably decrease as more moisture moves into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. For KALS, gusty southwest winds will set in this afternoon
around 21Z. For KCOS and KPUB, smoke/haze will hang around in the
area through the rest of the afternoon, which should decrease this
evening into tonight. Will keep an eye on conditions to see if
timing needs extended. There is also a low-end chance for some
showers and storms to drift near KPUB around 03-05Z, which could
cause some gusty outflow winds to hit the terminal. Left as a PROB30
group for now due to low-confidence.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1111 AM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024

COZ058>089-093>099-021715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1111 AM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will develop across the region by early to mid
afternoon. A few strong to severe storms will be possible over
the far southern mountains and plains, with highest confidence of
occurrence over the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, the
Raton Mesa, and the far southeastern plains by later this
afternoon and through the early evening.

With the stronger to severe storms, the main threat will be
strong outflow winds, although hail up to ping pong size or
greater will also be possible, as well as dangerous cloud-to-
ground lightning. In addition, there could also be brief
torrential rainfall associated with some of these storms, which
may cause flash flooding, especially for burn scar areas and
urbanized areas which are prone to flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Available moisture continues to increase on Friday leading to to
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over and near the
higher terrain Friday afternoon and evening. A few storms will
also be possible across the southeast Plains later in the
afternoon and evening. The main storm threat will remain locally
heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding, especially
for area burn scars and other flood prone areas. Other storm
hazards will be lightning and gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph.

For Saturday through Wednesday, afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will be more confined to the higher terrain, with
locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding remaining
possible with the strongest storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

RODRIGUEZ

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
500 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024

COZ093-094-097-099-012330-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
500 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OTERO...
NORTHWESTERN BACA...NORTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BENT
COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM MDT...

At 500 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles south of Higbee, or 33 miles south of North La Junta, moving
northwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Higbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 10311 3742 10340 3767 10374 3791 10340
      3780 10291
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 142DEG 16KT 3752 10333

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
509 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024

COZ094-099-012345-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
509 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BACA AND
SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM MDT...

At 508 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Kenton, or 37 miles northwest of Boise City,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Baca
and southeastern Las Animas Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3729 10279 3706 10261 3699 10269 3700 10331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 239DEG 32KT 3699 10309

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
513 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024

COZ097-098-012345-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
513 PM MDT Thu Aug 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL PROWERS AND
NORTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM MDT...

At 513 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Hasty, or 16 miles southwest of Lamar, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hasty, McClave, John Martin Reservoir, and Caddoa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 10290 3791 10319 3814 10304 3823 10277
      3799 10267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 232DEG 18KT 3798 10290

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Hodanish