Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
603 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record heat expected again on Sunday with one more hot day
  expected on Monday.

- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue over and
  near the mountains each afternoon and evening, with chances
  for storms on the plains increasing from Tuesday onwards.

- Cooler temperatures arrive Tuesday and continue through much
  of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Into the evening, the thermal ridge will continue to slide eastward
over the area. Hi-res models (HRRR/NAM 3km) indicate isolated
showers and thunderstorms continuing to develop for areas along and
west of the I-25 corridor this afternoon and then shifting to
development further east into the SE Plains by evening. Given
how dry it is in the lower levels with 60 degree dew point
depressions, precipitation will be limited with more virga and
dry lightning expected. Downdraft CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg
west of the I-25 corridor and 1500-2100 J/kg east of the I-25
corridor make dry microbursts possible with some gusts reaching
40-50 mph.

There continues to be NAM/GFS/ECMWF agreement that the mid-level
thermal ridge will slide eastward across the area through Sunday and
then begin to breakdown and slide southward on Monday. This will
allow for at least one more day of oppressive heat with Heat
Advisories for the I-25 corridor and eastward into the SE Plains on
Sunday. On Monday, as the ridge breaks down, we still could see some
locations reach the 100-105F range in the SE Plains and a Heat
Advisory may be needed for eastern Kiowa, Prowers, and Bent counties
in future updates. Highs on Sunday are pretty close to the National
Blend of Models (NBM) with the I-25 corridor again nearing 100F
(Pueblo up to 105F) and some locations in the SE Plains in the 105-
110F range. For Monday, it will be just a few degrees slightly
cooler for the I-25 corridor and eastward into the Plains. For the
San Luis Valley highs each day will be in the upper 80s. For higher
terrain, highs generally in the 70s and 80s can be expected each
day.

The pattern of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will
continue Sunday and again on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center
High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (SPC HREF) indicates showers
and thunderstorms developing again over higher terrain and then
spreading to areas along and east of the I-25 corridor on
Sunday. Moisture will be on the increase on Monday with PWAT
values increasing to near 1.00". This increase in moisture will
contribute to higher chances of showers and thunderstorms across
the area and especially across the SE Plains. Instability
appears to be pretty weak each day (SBCAPE <500 J/kg) although
more moderate shear (0-6km 40kts approx) should help contribute
to some stronger storms with gusty winds each day. Given the
increase PWAT values, cannot rule out localized heavy rainfall
and a flash flooding threat, but it should isolated in nature.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 209 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A more active period is ahead as the GFS/ECMWF ensembles indicate
the thermal ridge will break down, slide southward, and moisture
will be on the increase. For the mid-week through Friday, the mid-
level flow looks to become more northwesterly as the ridge amplifies
and builds back northward into Utah and a trough passes well
northeast of the area. Deep layer moisture will be on the increase
this week and will contribute to increased coverage of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the week, especially over the SE Plains.

A cold front will drop southward across the area Tuesday into
Tuesday night, providing forcing to make showers and thunderstorms
more likely and severe weather with damaging winds and large hail
possible. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
diurnally-driven each afternoon into the evening with lulls with the
loss of heating overnight. Given PWAT values increasing to 1.25" to
even 1.5" in the SE Plains, flash flooding will become more of a
threat Tuesday and continuing into the end of the week.

For temperatures, highs on Tuesday will be cooler and closer to
normal seasonal values, ranging from the low to mid 90s across the
SE Plains to the upper 80s along the Rampart Range I-25 corridor to
the mid 80s in the San Luis Valley. In the wake of the front, a
cooler air mass along with increase moisture/cloudiness will
contribute to temperatures around 5-10 degrees below normal
Wednesday into Friday. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs. Erratic winds due to
convective outflows will persist until 02z-04z this evening,
though chances of any tsra at taf sites looks to low to include
in the forecast at this point. Winds then become light drainage
at most sites overnight into Sunday morning. Little change in
the pattern expected on Sunday, with isolated tsra producing
periods of gusty and erratic winds at all sites after 18z-20z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-089-
093-095>098.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ083>086-089-
093-095>098.

&&

SHORT TERM...WOODRUM
LONG TERM...WOODRUM
AVIATION...PETERSEN

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1204 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

COZ058>089-093>099-141815-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1204 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon and evening, with the best coverage expected
over the San Juan and southern Sangre de Cristo Mountain Ranges.
Storms will be high based with the main threats being gusty winds
to 45 mph and lightning across the higher terrain. An isolated
storm will also be possible across the southeast Plains which
could produce gusty winds up to 60 mph.

Hot, near record temperatures will be in the offing again today, with
Heat Advisories in place until 8 PM across eastern Fremont, El
Paso, Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties.
Peoples needing to spend time outdoors should drink plenty of
fluids to stay hydrated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Dangerous heat continues on Sunday, with daytime readings in the
upper 90s to around 108 degrees across the plains. Temperatures cool
by only a couple of degrees for Monday with Heat Advisories again
possible in the SE Plains. Much cooler temperatures will move in
by Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the week.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
over the mountains on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will
become more numerous from Monday through the end of the work week.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the plains from
Tuesday through Thursday, with some storms capable of producing
heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

WOODRUM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
217 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

COZ083-086-132045-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County CO-
217 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FREMONT
AND NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM MDT...

At 216 PM MDT, trained weather spotters reported gusty outflow winds
from showers 7 miles west of Pueblo West, or 14 miles west of
Pueblo, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Southwestern Pueblo, Florence, Pueblo West, Pueblo Reservoir, Pinon,
and Penrose.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3845 10447 3833 10467 3814 10461 3809 10489
      3837 10512 3850 10496 3851 10471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 090DEG 18KT 3835 10487

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
413 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

COZ098-099-132245-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
413 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PROWERS AND
NORTHEASTERN BACA COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM MDT...

At 413 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Two Buttes, or 21 miles northwest of The Saunders Elevator, moving
east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Two Buttes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 10250 3775 10241 3768 10208 3748 10226
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 292DEG 15KT 3766 10235

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
522 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

COZ094-132345-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
522 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM MDT...

At 521 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northwest of Kim, or 43 miles south of North La Junta. This
thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Las
Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 10332 3721 10352 3737 10371 3751 10345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 141DEG 3KT 3734 10351

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
713 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

COZ086-140145-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
713 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PUEBLO COUNTY
THROUGH 745 PM MDT...

At 712 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pueblo, moving south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo, Pueblo West, Pueblo Reservoir, and Salt Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 10480 3836 10457 3812 10452 3813 10481
      3817 10494 3834 10487
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 002DEG 15KT 3828 10468

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Simcoe