Red Flag Warning 15, NWS Pueblo, CO

335 
WWUS85 KPUB 060045
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
645 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

COZ224-060145-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-240406T0100Z/
San Luis Valley Including Alamosa/Del Norte/Fort Garland/Saguache-
645 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 224...

Although winds will remain up tonight across the San Luis Valley,
the temperatures will cool and humidity values will continue to
increase through the evening hours. 

$$

COZ227>233-235>237-061645-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-240406T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0015.240406T1700Z-240407T0200Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
645 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 235, 236, AND 237...

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 235, 236, AND
237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 
  232, 233, 235, 236 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The
  strongest winds will occur tomorrow. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ226-234-060300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-240406T0300Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Kiowa County Including Eads-
645 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
226 AND 234...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 226 and 234.

* Winds...South 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Relative Humidity...in the 10 to 15 percent range. 

* Impacts...Conditions may be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

794 
WWUS85 KPUB 060242
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
842 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

COZ227>233-235>237-061845-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-240406T0300Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0015.240406T1700Z-240407T0200Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
842 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 235, 236, AND
237...

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 227,
228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 235, 236, AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 
  232, 233, 235, 236 and 237.

* Winds...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 7 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ226-234-060345-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-240406T0300Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
Kiowa County Including Eads-
842 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
226 AND 234...

The Red Flag Warning which has been in effect for the region will
expire at 9 PM this evening. 

$$

Hodanish

949 
WWUS85 KPUB 060304
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
904 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

COZ227>233-235>237-061915-
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0015.240406T1700Z-240407T0200Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
904 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 
233, 235, 236, AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 
  232, 233, 235, 236 and 237.

* Winds...West 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

634 
WWUS85 KPUB 060955
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 AM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024


COZ234-070200-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0015.240407T1600Z-240408T0200Z/
/O.EXA.KPUB.FW.W.0015.240406T1700Z-240407T0200Z/
Kiowa County Including Eads-
355 AM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 234...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONE 234...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening. A Fire
Weather Watch has also been issued. This Fire Weather Watch for
gusty winds and low relative humidity is in effect from Sunday
morning through Sunday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 234.

* Winds...West 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph today.
  Northwest winds 20 to 35 mph on Sunday. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 11 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

COZ227>233-235>237-070200-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.A.0015.240407T1600Z-240408T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0015.240406T1700Z-240407T0200Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Bent County Including Las Animas-Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
355 AM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 235,
236, AND 237...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 235, 236, AND
237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Fire Weather
Watch for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 
  232, 233, 235, 236 and 237.

* Winds...West 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

659 
WWUS85 KPUB 062049
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024

COZ227>237-071300-
/O.UPG.KPUB.FW.A.0015.240407T1600Z-240408T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KPUB.FW.W.0016.240407T1600Z-240408T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-240407T0200Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
249 PM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 
235, 236, AND 237... 
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 
236, AND 237...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a new Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low relative humidity, which is in 
effect from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday. The Fire Weather Watch for 
Sunday is no longer in effect.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 
  232, 233, 234, 235, 236 and 237.

* Winds...West 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. Strongest
  winds this afternoon and tonight. 

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

612 
WWUS85 KPUB 070156
RFWPUB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
756 PM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024

COZ227>237-071800-
/O.EXP.KPUB.FW.W.0015.000000T0000Z-240407T0200Z/
/O.CON.KPUB.FW.W.0016.240407T1600Z-240408T0200Z/
Southern El Paso County Including Fort Carson and Colorado
Springs-Pueblo County Including Pueblo-
Huerfano County Including Walsenburg-
Western Las Animas County Including Trinidad and Thatcher-
Crowley County Including Ordway-
Otero County Including La Junta and Western Comanche Grasslands-
Eastern Las Animas County Including Pinon Canyon-
Kiowa County Including Eads-Bent County Including Las Animas-
Prowers County Including Lamar-
Baca County Including Springfield and Eastern Comanche Grasslands-
756 PM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 
234, 235, 236, AND 237...

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236, 
AND 237...

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zones 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 
  232, 233, 234, 235, 236 and 237.

* Winds...West northwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

COZ226-071800-
/O.EXA.KPUB.FW.W.0016.240407T1600Z-240408T0200Z/
Northern El Paso County Including Monument and Black Forest-
756 PM MDT Sat Apr 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR 
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 226...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a Red Flag
Warning for gusty winds and low humidity, which is in effect from
10 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday.

* Affected Area...Fire Weather Zone 226.

* Winds...Northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 12 percent.

* Impacts...Conditions will be favorable for rapid rates of fire 
  growth and spread.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1211 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds with widespread critical fire weather conditions
  will occur this afternoon through early evening across the
  plains and San Luis Valley.

- Blowing snow with potential for snow squalls will begin
  across the ContDvd later this afternoon and expand eastward
  across the higher terrain through tonight. Thunder will be
  possible.

- Two rounds of high winds possible Saturday into Sunday, first
  with the passage of the upper trough axis on Sat for the
  lower elevations along and south of highway 50, and second
  with a potential mountain wave high wind event for all of the
  SE mountains and I-25 corridor Sat night into Sun.

- Critical Fire Weather conditions may return on Sat and Sun for
  portions of the plains though area still in question.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

Updated forecast to convert all High Wind Watches to warnings
for Sat/Sat night. Simplified start times for all zones to 8 am
mdt to catch potentially gusty winds with cold frontal passage
in the morning. May be a lull midday, then threat of extreme
winds rises most eastern mountain slopes late afternoon into
evening with mountain wave developing. Pikes Peak region/lee of
the Ramparts/Cheyenne mountain look most favored for potential
gusts over 80 mph, as mountain cross sections show extreme
reverse shear from El Paso County northward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

Today...

A deep longwave trough with an associated major shortwave trough
upstream will continue to propagate towards the region. Ahead of
this will be very strong and increasing southwesterly winds due to a
combination of the tightening of the surface pressure gradient,
along with brute forcing from the 700 mb level winds that will mix
down to the surface by later this morning. These strong and gusty
downsloping winds will help to dry out the lower levels to just
single digit relative humidity values for many locations, and
produce conditions favorable for widespread critical fire weather
conditions across the entire plains and San Luis Valley. In
addition, the adiabatically downsloping and compressing winds will
allow for temperatures to warm up well above the seasonal average
for this time of year and perhaps even only a few degrees shy of the
daily record for some locations within the lower Arkansas River
Valley. For instance, the daily record for Pueblo is 86F (set in
2021), and the forecast high is 82F, with some of the guidance
suggesting that it could be even warmer. These conditions could
cause fire growth and rapid spread and therefore it is imperative to
avoid any outdoor activities that could spark a fire. Winds will
also continue to strengthen going into the latter part of the day
and there could be some areas of blowing dust, especially after
noon.

Snow will begin over the ContDvd, mainly the southwestern mountains
by later the afternoon as southwesterly flow in the mid to upper
levels advects in moisture. There also will be a fair amount of
instability moving over for this time of year, with CAPE values of
nearly 300 J/kg, due to this, some of the snow showers will become
very convective and there will likely be a few snow squalls as a
result across the eastern San Juan Mountains by later this
afternoon and the first initial pulse moves through. Some of
these showers could move over into the San Luis Valley and
adjacent plains, although a majority of the lower elevations will
remain dry, especially east of the I-25 corridor. Most of the
precipitation will be confined to the higher peaks, mainly on the
southwestern (windward) side, with orographic lifting also playing
a role. CAMs continue to show the more convective elements to
remain over the southwest mountains, although this will shift to
the eastern mountains by later in the evening.

Tonight...

Snow will continue to fill in across the higher terrain, and as
aforementioned, there could also be some snow squalls moving across
the eastern mountains as the initial pulse of energy moves overhead
and into an area of higher lapse rates during the late evening
hours. Winds will decouple a bit going into the later hours of the
night across the plains, although likely remain strong and gusty
throughout the night for areas along the southern I-25 corridor as a
stronger jet moves over this area and brute forcing keeps these
winds going. There will be an area of PVA the moves over the
Pikes Peak Region/Rampart Range by later in the night as the
associated upper level low moves over the central to northern half
of the state during the night, which will allow for more
convective showers and possible snow squalls by the early morning
hours to be possible over this area, and the Palmer Divide. Very
strong and gusty winds will also produce wind driven and blowing
snow, with severely reduced visibilities and even white-out
conditions at times across the higher mountains and passes. Given
the clouds and winds, temperatures will not drop all that much and
therefore most of the precip (if any) that moves over across the
lower elevations will likely be in the form of rain, however, a
heavier and more convective shower over the Palmer Divide may
result in a burst of heavy blowing snow during the early morning
hours tomorrow.  -Stewey

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

Models are in good agreement with the intensification of the upper
low as it lifts into NE CO on Saturday.  As it crosses the mountains
early Saturday morning a quick burst of convectively enhanced snow
and strong winds will spread into the Sangre De Cristo Mts then
dissipate quickly as westerly downslope flow spreads off the
mountains into the adjacent southeast plains. However this could
help bring a strong burst of high winds into the lower elevations
along and south of highway 50 as precipitation and strong downward
forcing behind the trough axis helps drive 50kt H7 winds down to the
surface. Current High Wind Watches still look on track.  Winds in
the afternoon will remain strong, and the signal for high winds in
the National Blend of Model (NBM) members remain in the 50-80%
range.  Concerningly though, the signal in HREF members is not as
strong (less than 20%), but either way it will be very windy and
close to high wind criteria. Did not expand watches as far east as
NBM suggested as no HREF members seem to support this.

Meanwhile, as the upper low wraps up to our northeast, this
pulls precipitation southward into the Palmer Divide and northern
Teller county during the morning.  A quick burst of heavy snow could
accompany this wrap around, though temperatures right around or a
little above freezing will likely temper impacts. Instability
and strong winds could lead to brief visibility impacts during
the heavier snow Sat AM, and soundings do support sufficient
diabatic cooling to drive snow levels down to support a quick
(if not immediate) snow switch over for the Pikes Peak region.
Precipitation decreases Saturday afternoon as the system pulls
away to the northeast. Have hoisted Winter Weather Advisories
for the Continental Divide mountains and higher peaks of the
Sangres. The Sangre De Cristo Advisory will come down by noon.
The remainder of the Continental Divide advisories will stay in
effect until 6 PM for the southwest mountains and midnight for
the central mountains as instability/moisture will keep snow
showers going through the day with the focus shifting into the
central mountains where northwest flow is more orographically
favored.

Another round of more persistent and impactful high winds will
be possible for the southeast mountains and I-25 corridor
counties late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning as a
subsidence inversion develops behind the upper low and strong
reverse shear gets established above a 50-70kt mtn top jet. Best
parameters seem to be north of highway 50 where inversion aloft
is strongest. Will hoist High Wind Watches for all of the
southeast mountains and adjacent lower elevations at 22z and
maintain these through Sunday morning. Parameters seem to
maximize around 06-09z but suspect that this timing will waver
around a bit with future model runs. Prior to 06z, We will be
lacking a mountain top inversion, so will have to rely on a
wave induced critical layer to develop. But as that inversion
becomes more established into the overnight, the mechanism to
drive the winds down becomes more pronounced. HREF wind
probability statistics don't run out that far yet, but this
signal is very evident in high res models such as NamNest. Would
like to see the inversion a tad higher than what it appears in
the Nam soundings, but regardless, the signal is there and the
amount of reverse shear is impressive. NBM wind gusts greater
than 58 mph show pretty widespread area of 80-100% probabilities
across the southeast mts and adjacent lower elevations which
decreases quickly towards 15z. Along and north of highway 50,
there is a substantial signal for gusts 75+ mph (50-70% probs),
so depending on how all these details come together, there could
be some impactful high winds along the I-25 corridor Sat night
into Sunday.

Otherwise, Saturday and Sunday both look like repeat critical fire
weather days for portions of the plains.  Maintained the Fire
Weather Watch for Saturday given uncertainties in the wrap around
moisture across northern sections of the SE plains which makes
Kiowa and Prowers counties vulnerable to higher humidities. Will
let the day shift get a look at another model run before
hoisting. Finally, Sunday looks like another repeat critical
fire weather day for much of the southeast plains as it will
still be windy behind the departing upper low which stalls
across Nebraska.

Next upper low will already be dropping southward through the
western U.S. Sunday through Monday with the consensus taking it into
southern AZ by Monday evening.  Models diverge beyond that but seem
to agree on a more southern storm track through NM through the early
to middle part of next week.  As the northern stream trough send a
front through the southeast plains, we still see a shot for rain and
mountain snows across the southeast mountains and plains Monday
night through Tue but details on snowfall amounts are still murky
until the timing and track of the system can be refined.  Either
way, it appears most impacts will be confined to the mountain zones
for now. We dry out and warm up again for late week as another upper
ridge translates in from the west. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

KALS: Gusty south-southwest winds will continue to increase
across the area this afternoon into tonight, with gusts
consistently around 30 knots. There will be a concern for
blowing dust in the valley for a few hours as well, which could
briefly decrease visibility. Also this evening into tonight,
snow showers will form over the nearby mountains and drift into
the valley, with data showing the potential for light snowfall
around 09Z tonight. Snow accumulations from any passing showers
will be light, but with the winds blowing snow could cause
visibility issues as conditions fall into low MVFR. Conditions
improve by 12Z, but some borderline MVFR clouds remain in the
area as winds continue to increase from the west.

KCOS: Gusty south-southwest winds will increase this afternoon,
gusting to around 40 knots. There is a lower-end chance for some
spotty blowing dust at the terminal this afternoon as well, but
confidence is currently low enough to remove it from this round
of TAFs. Will be watching satellite closely for any needed
updates. Overnight, winds at the surface will shift a bit more
southeasterly, but some LLWS will be possible with stronger
southwest winds above the surface. Winds will remain gusty
through the period, but will change to northwesterly early
tomorrow morning. Additionally, some light snow will drift off
of the Pikes Peak Region tomorrow morning, dropping cigs to
MVFR. If a snow shower does drift over the terminal,
accumulations would be very light but blowing snow could impact
visibility.

KPUB: Gusty south winds will persist through the rest of the
afternoon, gusting around 35 knots. Also keeping an eye out for
patchy blowing dust this afternoon, but confidence in direct
impacts to the terminal is currently low enough to exclude from
this round of TAFs. Will keep a close eye on satellite for
needed updates. Winds turn more southeasterly tonight with mid-
level clouds sticking around and gusts decreasing below 30
knots. Early tomorrow morning, winds shift to northwesterly and
will quickly increase through the rest of the period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT
Saturday night for COZ058-060.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 11 AM MDT Sunday for
COZ060>063-072>088.
High Wind Watch Sunday morning for COZ061>063-072>088.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT
Saturday for COZ066-068.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.
High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for
COZ069>071.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon MDT
Saturday for COZ073-075.
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ226>237.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for COZ227>237.

&&

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
551 AM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

COZ058>089-093>099-061200-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
551 AM MDT Fri Apr 5 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong winds with widespread critical fire weather conditions will
occur this afternoon through early evening across the plains and
San Luis Valley. There could be areas of blowing dust for the
lower elevations. Blowing snow, with potential for snow squalls,
will begin across the Continental Divide later this afternoon and
expand eastward across the higher terrain through tonight.
Thunder will be possible. Highest snowfall totals are expected
over the eastern San Juan Mountains, where as much as 8 inches are
possible through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Intensifying low will bring a quick burst of heavy wind driven snow
to the mountains and portions of the Pikes Peak region through
Saturday morning. Snow squalls will be possible though impacts and
accumulations carry uncertainty for the Palmer Divide due to warm
surfaces. Two rounds of high winds possible Saturday into Sunday,
first with the passage of the upper trough axis on Saturday for
the lower elevations along and south of highway 50, and second
with a potential mountain wave high wind event for all of the SE
mountains and I-25 corridor Saturday night into Sunday. Critical
Fire Weather conditions may return on Saturday and Sunday during
the afternoon through early evening hours for portions of the
plains though the area coverage still in question. Additional
snowfall totals of 4 to 6 inches will be possible across the
Continental Divide, with lesser amounts for the southeastern
mountains.

Another low pressure system could impact the region with more
mountain snow beginning by later in the day on Monday, and either
rain or a rain to snow transition over portions of the plains from
Tuesday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible over portions of the region.

STEWARD/31