Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
125 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon satellite imagery shows an upper level trough centered
along the Idaho/Oregon border. Ahead of this feature, convection
remains ongoing across eastern Idaho with strong to severe storms
remaining possible into the evening hours. SPC Mesoanalysis shows
pockets of SBCAPE in excess of 1000J/kg and one storm currently
in this environment is likely producing at least quarter size
hail. This favorable convective environment will continue mainly
across the southern 1/3rd of the forecast area and into the
eastern highlands. Large hail, heavy rain, frequent lightning look
to be the biggest concern with these storms but some gusty winds
certainly can't be ruled out. With increased cloud cover
throughout the region, temperatures are running on the cooler side
of normal and this will likely be the case once again on
Wednesday with the trough still just north of the region. Expect
highs mainly in the 70s with some lower 80s possible with adequate
clearing. Today is certainly going to be the more active of the
two days weather-wise but we are expecting another round of decent
PoPs as we move into Wednesday, primarily across the eastern half
of the area.

This trough will move east into the northern Plains on Thursday
while another one moves into Oregon right behind it by midday.
This second trough will serve as a catalyst for more showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday with the primary focus this time across
the central mountains and along the Montana Divide but all of the
area will see at least some chance for precipitation. Friday and
Saturday look to be drier as weak ridging builds over the region
ahead of a potent upper low moving towards the coastline of the
Pacific NW over the weekend. This should allow temperatures to
climb Friday and into the weekend closer to their climatological
norms (mid to upper 80s) in the valleys. The aforementioned low
doesn't look to move much into the early part of next week but
we'll likely see at least some isolated PoPs return to the
forecast for the early part of next week. McKaughan

&&

.AVIATION...
An afternoon of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected
with localized MVFR/IFR reductions possible in and around
thunderstorms. Continue to have a series of TEMPOs in place at
KPIH, KIDA and KDIJ over the next couple of hours. Heavy rain,
gusty winds and even some hail are likely with the strongest of
storms. Hi-res models show precip chances dropping after 14/02Z or
so and much of the overnight should be precip-free with light and
variable winds. As we get into Wednesday, another round of
showers and storms will be possible but probably not as widespread
as what we see today. Nevertheless, there will be some potential
to see precip at all terminals but the eastern half of the area
will certainly have the best chances. McKaughan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to scattered storms are already ongoing and will continue
through this afternoon and evening as a cold front passes through
the area. As such, a RED FLAG WARNING continues until 9 PM for
Fire Weather Zones 410, 411, 413, 475, and 476 for scattered
thunderstorms. All storms today will be capable of producing wind
gusts of 40 to 50 mph, small hail, and brief downpours. However,
storms along and east of I-15 may produce stronger wind gusts near
60 mph and quarter size hail or larger as this is the area within
the "Marginal" risk for severe weather from the SPC. We are
expecting more showers and storms on Wednesday afternoon, too,
with isolated storms in the Central Mountains and South Hills
(Zones 422, 427, 475, and 476) and isolated to near scattered
storms in the Upper Snake Plain and Eastern Highlands (Zones 410,
411, and 413). Storms look to pack a bit less of a punch tomorrow,
but still bring some gusty winds up to 50 mph and small hail at
times. Activity tomorrow looks more limited in coverage compared
to today (and more similar to Monday's activity) and after partner
coordination have decided to hold off on any Red Flag Warnings
for tomorrow at this time.

Afternoon convection continues through Wednesday and Thursday, and
while there won't be a TON of moisture for us, it will be enough
to keep our min RHs in the 20-30 percent range through Friday and
afternoon wind gusts in the 15 to 25 mph range. So, no Red Flags
for winds and RHs over the next few days, it will have to be based
on storm coverage if we issue any. AMM

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-411-413-
475-476.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1242 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

IDZ056-057-131915-
Raft River Region ID-Southern Hills/Albion Mountains ID-
1242 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CASSIA COUNTY
THROUGH 115 PM MDT...

At 1242 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elba, or 10 miles southwest of Malta, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 45 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Malta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4213 11355 4221 11361 4240 11333 4221 11311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 245DEG 23KT 4220 11350

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

TAX

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1256 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

IDZ052-067>069-132000-
Arco/Mud Lake Desert ID-Lost River Range ID-
Beaverhead/Lemhi Highlands ID-Lost River Valleys ID-
1256 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BUTTE COUNTY THROUGH 200
PM MDT...

At 1254 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Arco, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 45 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Arco, Moore, Butte City, and Howe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4348 11332 4374 11344 4398 11304 4367 11273
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 241DEG 15KT 4373 11330

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

KB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
131 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

IDZ063-132000-
Caribou Range ID-
131 PM MDT Tue Aug 13 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CARIBOU AND
SOUTHEASTERN BONNEVILLE COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM MDT...

At 130 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles southwest of
Palisades Reservoir to 14 miles southeast of Wayan. Movement was east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts in excess of 45 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Palisades Reservoir and Freedom.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Palisades Reservoir, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Strong winds will create rough chop.
Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent
thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be
struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on
the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4272 11131 4317 11131 4326 11105 4272 11104
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 253DEG 25KT 4312 11125 4279 11125

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

AMM

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