Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
156 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday Night.
Scattered showers and storms will continue through the rest of this
evening with the best coverage remaining in the upper Snake Plain
into the northern portion of the Eastern Highlands/Island Park
region. Areas north of a line from Small, to Rexburg, to Driggs will
have the best potential (50 to 80 percent chance) for a wetting
rain/wet storms today. Storms will be capable of producing brief
downpours, small hail, and gusts around 45 to 50 mph. Forecast
soundings for areas around Idaho Falls and northward show the
classic inverted v feature to support strong wind gusts along with
about 800 to 900 J/kg of DCAPE, though afternoon 0 to 6 km shear
is modest, coming in around 20 to 30 kts, and seems to be holding
back storms just a bit. Several storms training over Dubois early
this afternoon dropped about a half to three quarters of an inch
in just under an hour. CAMs also hit at the potential for an
isolated storm or two moving thorugh the Southern Hills. Overall,
activity should diminish after sunset and taper off by midnight or
shortly after.

Thanks to the cold front that moved through, temperatures today will
top out in the 70s to low 80s for most of the Snake Plain, eastern
Magic Valley, and Southern Hills. Areas up north near Island Park
will struggle to hit 70 degrees today. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
continues until 9 PM this evening for the American Falls reservoir
where sustained winds are expected to remain at or above 20 mph.
Wind gusts across the area today will generally range from 25 to 35
mph. Highs on Tuesday will be nearly a repeat and overall it will be
a drier day with winds still breezy at times, but only gusting 20 to
30 mph.
AMM

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Monday.
We remain in northwest flow aloft on Wednesday and Thursday as
another system begins to move out of Canada and into northern
Montana. This looks to open the door just enough for at least a 20
percent chance of a shower/storm up in the Island Park region on
Wednesday and Thursday. Outside of this area we are expected to stay
dry across central and eastern Idaho. Wind will be elevated on
Wednesday with gusts of 30 to 40 mph expected in the eastern Magic
Valley and through the Snake Plain. Even outside of these typically
breezy areas wind gusts will range from 25 to 35 mph. Winds will be
lighter on the 4th, with afternoon gusts closer to 20 to 25 mph.
Temperatures begin to warm back up on Friday with highs returning to
the mid 80s for much of the area. The GFS is getting back on board
with the heat dome building over the Southwest through the weekend
and the ECMWF continues to show the same as it has been doing. This
means our warming trend will continue through the weekend as we
reach the 90s once again.
AMM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z Monday through 18Z Tuesday.
Main aviation impacts will be the potential for showers and storms
at IDA and DIJ. Latest HREF probability of thunder is about a 50 to
70 percent chance at these two sites with about a 10 to 20 percent
chance at SUN, PIH, and BYI. Wind gusts with storms will most likely
be in the 35 to 40kt range. Storms are expected to diminish after
sunset, but persist until 06-08Z. Any storm passing over a
terminal could drop conditions from VFR to MVFR or even IFR due to
low VIS and CIGs. Outside of storms, it will still be breezy
today with gusts at all sites ranging from 20 to 30 kts with the
higher end of those gusts at BYI, PIH, and IDA. Tuesday is
expected to be dry with wind gusts around 15 to 20 kts at all
sites. AMM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and storms continue for the rest of the
afternoon and evening across much of FWZ 410, 411, 475, and 476.
In these zones there is a 50 to 80 percent chance of wet
thunderstorms. While these areas will be the main focus for storms
today, there is about a 10 to 20 percent chance for an isolated
storm in FWZ 413 and 427. Any storm here is more likely to by a
dry storm, with only about a 10 to 20 percent chance of QPF of at
least a tenth of an inch. Any storms will be capable of producing
small hail and wind gusts around 50 mph, but the storms farther
north seem more likely to pack the better punch, so to say.
Activity will diminish after sunset and taper off around midnight.
Tuesday is expected to be a drier day with wind gusts around 25
mph and min RHs in the upper teens to low 20s across all of
central and eastern Idaho with the exception being parts of the
Eastern Highlands where RHs will bottom out in the upper 20s to
mid 30s. We are expecting critical to near-critical fire weather
conditions for many on Wednesday as we get even drier with min RHs
in the low teens to upper teens almost everywhere. Wind gusts
will pick up again, too, in the 30 to 40 mph range. Humidity
increases slightly and winds will be lighter on Thursday. AMM

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&